Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecast 110mmt grain harvest

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture report the current total harvest at 62.5mmt, up around 30% on the same point as last year.

They go on to forecast a final harvest somewhere between 106 to 110mmt which could beat the previous record crop of 108mmt set in 2008.

Regional output figures are broadly similar to last year, give or take, with the Southern and North Caucus Districts producing an extra 3.5mmt or 11% increase and the Central District posting a 3.1mmt or -23% decrease.

The real eye opening figure is the Volga District reporting 7.8mmt extra grain on the same point last year which represents 123% increase.

I need to better understand what's going on so I will be taking a run through the Volga region shortly to have a look and see how it compares with the data we collected last year.

Wheat harvest is currently running at 45.7mmt with an average yield of 3.9mt/ha (58bu/ac), significantly up on the same point last year when the Russians had harvested 38mmt at 3.4mt/ha (50bu/ac).

Barley harvest stands at 9.2mmt (7.1mmt in 2015) with an average yield of 3.0mt/ha (56bu/ac) which is also up on last years 2.6mt/ha crop (48bu/ac).

With intermittent rains forecast for Central and Northern regions through the rest of this week and into next means we may see a slowing down of harvest activity by the next Ministry report.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU
Scattered showers and thundershowers (10-30 mm, locally more) spread across Belarus and western Russia, maintaining adequate to abundant moisture supplies for corn, soybeans, and sunflowers.

The showers were generally passing in nature, allowing winter wheat harvesting to progress during drier periods.

Elsewhere in the region, showers and thundershowers (10-30 mm, locally more) overspread Ukraine as well.

The rain was welcome in west-central sections of the country, providing a needed boost in soil moisture for corn and soybeans in the wake of recent short-term dryness.

After a generally seasonable start, temperatures in Belarus, Ukraine, and western Russia slowly crept up during the week.

Temperatures averaged 3 to 5°C above normal for the week, with maximum temperatures often exceeding 35°C in southeastern Ukraine and the Southern District in Russia during the latter half.

Summer crops are generally in the late reproductive to filling stages of development.

As a result, the heat likely increased stress on summer crops, however, large reductions in yield potential are unlikely because crops are beyond the most critical stages of development.

Eastern FSU
Widely scattered showers in northern Kazakhstan and central Russia continued to favour late reproductive to filling spring wheat.

Rainfall amounts were highly variable, with some locations receiving nearly 25 mm of rain and many locations tallying no rainfall.

Despite this variability, soil moisture was adequate to abundant throughout the region and crop prospects remained good to excellent.

Temperatures averaged up to 2°C above normal in western spring wheat producing areas (i.e., Urals District of Russia) and up to 2°C below normal in southern and eastern producing areas (i.e., northern Kazakhstan, Siberia District in Russia).

Farther south, seasonably hot, mostly dry weather favored open-boll cotton in Uzbekistan.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU
Drier, somewhat cooler conditions followed early-week showers, maintaining mostly favorable prospects for summer crops.

A cold front triggered widespread showers and thunderstorms (10-70 mm, locally more) early in the period across Russia and Belarus, sustaining adequate to abundant moisture supplies for reproductive summer crops.

The front also brought an end to the short-lived but intense mid-July heat wave, with daytime highs slipping below 35°C until week’s end.

Consequently, corn and sunflowers progressed through reproduction with little - if any - additional heat stress, though some yield losses from the recent hot spell are likely in southern Russia.

Corn in Russia’s Southern District was subjected to as many as 6 days of high heat (35-41°C) in mid- to late-July as the crop progressed through the tassel and silk stages of development.

Meanwhile, the sunny, warm weather later in the week favored winter wheat harvesting and enabled field preparations in advance of winter wheat planting, which typically occurs in late August and September.

Despite a favorably wet summer to date, localized short-term dryness has developed in west-central Ukraine; over the past 30 days, this region has reported less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, reducing moisture supplies for reproductive corn and soybeans.

Eastern FSU
Widespread rain and near- to below-normal temperatures maintained favorable prospects for spring wheat, while increasing heat accelerated cotton into the open-boll stage of development in the south.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms (10-50 mm, locally more) over northern Kazakhstan and adjacent portions of central Russia maintained good to excellent yield prospects for flowering to filling spring wheat.

Furthermore, heat has not been an issue due to the cloudy, rainy weather, with temperatures averaging up to 2°C below normal for the week.

However, drier weather will be needed soon to maintain the current favorable crop projections.

Farther south, increasing heat (daytime highs 38-42°C) in Uzbekistan accelerated cotton into the open-boll stage of development, likely putting much of the crop past the point of significant yield impacts from this week’s above-normal temperatures (1-2°C above normal).

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Excessive early-week heat likely trimmed yield prospects for reproductive summer crops, though rainy, cooler conditions by mid-week prevented further yield losses.

A continuation of the brief but intense heat wave which began on or about July 14 lingered into the early part of the week, with highs approaching or topping 40°C in key corn and sunflower areas of Russia and Ukraine through July 18.

Impacts varied considerably from region to region, largely based on planting dates and the resultant crop development stage.

In northern Ukraine and Russia’s Central District, where corn is typically planted in early to mid-May, the heat had little impact as corn was still in the vegetative stages of development.

From southern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern district — where corn is planted somewhat earlier (mean planting date is late April) — corn was in the tassel and silk stages of development when the heat arrived; as a result, corn in southern portions of the region likely suffered some loss of yield potential.

However, widespread, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-80 mm) signalled the arrival of cooler weather, limiting the deleterious impacts of the heat on reproductive corn (and to lesser extent sunflowers) to 6 days or less.

While potentially harmful for summer crops, the sunny, hot weather enabled a rapid winter wheat harvest pace before the rainy weather slowed fieldwork by mid-week.

Eastern FSU

Widespread rain and near-normal temperatures maintained favorable prospects for spring wheat, while somewhat cooler conditions in Uzbekistan eased stress on flowering cotton. 

With spring wheat in the heading to flowering stages of development, a soaking rainfall (10-90 mm, locally more) over northern Kazakhstan and adjacent portions of central Russia maintained good to excellent yield prospects. 

Showers were somewhat lighter (less than 10 mm) in the southern Urals District, but soil moisture was in good supply for flowering spring wheat. 

Farther south, the return of near-normal temperatures (daytime highs 35-40°C) in Uzbekistan reduced stress caused by last week’s heat on irrigated cotton, which continued to progress through the flowering stage of development. 

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Dry, warm conditions prevailed in the region’s primary winter wheat areas.

Sunny skies and near- to above normal temperatures (1-3°C above normal) maintained ideal conditions for winter wheat maturation and harvesting from south-central Ukraine into western portions of Russia’s Southern District, a key winter wheat area.

A swath of moderate to heavy rain (10-50 mm, locally more) hampered drydown and harvesting in eastern winter wheat areas, but the rain was not expected to impact crop quality or lower yield potential.

Farther west, 10 to 50 mm of rainfall eased developing short-term dryness in northwestern Ukraine and neighbouring portions of Belarus, improving prospects for spring grains, soybeans, and corn.

Primary corn areas (north-central and eastern portions of Ukraine into southwestern Russia) have received near- to above-normal rainfall over the past 60 days, so this week’s dry, warm weather (30-32°C) promoted crop development.

Corn was approaching the tassel stage in Ukraine, and had entered the tassel stage in Russia.

Vegetative to reproductive spring grains in the eastern Volga District benefited from widespread showers (2-22 mm) and near-normal temperatures.

Eastern FSU

Widespread showers maintained favourable prospects for spring wheat (north) and cotton (south).

Early in the period, a departing storm system produced an additional 10 to 60 mm of rainfall from northwestern Kazakhstan and the southern Urals District eastward into the Siberia District.

The rain further increased soil moisture reserves for jointing spring wheat, which is on schedule to enter the key reproductive stages of development during the latter half of July.

Farther south, showers and thunderstorms (10-40 mm) over eastern Uzbekistan and environs provided supplemental moisture for irrigated cotton, which was in the flowering stage of development.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Showers and thunderstorms boosted soil moisture for summer crops and ended the recent heat in southern Russia.

Early in the period, daytime highs approached or topped 35°C (locally as high as 37°C) over much of Russia’s Southern District, accelerating corn and sunflowers toward reproduction.

However, timely showers and thunderstorms (10-55 mm, locally more) later in the week boosted moisture supplies and signalled the end of the brief heat wave, with daytime highs dipping below 35°C as corn entered the temperature-critical tasseling stage of development.

Farther west, widespread albeit highly variable showers (5-80 mm) maintained favourable soil moisture for corn, soybeans, and sunflowers over Moldova and Ukraine, though short-term dryness has begun to develop over parts of north-central Ukraine (10-25 percent of normal rainfall over the past 30 days).

Meanwhile, dry weather promoted winter wheat drydown and harvesting in southern portions of the Central District, while light to moderate showers (2-40 mm) maintained good soil moisture for spring wheat development in the Volga District.

Eastern FSU

Widespread rain developed over the region’s primary spring wheat areas, while drier conditions settled over southern portions of the region.

A slow-moving storm system brought a soaking rainfall (10-80 mm, locally more) to northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia, boosting soil moisture supplies for jointing spring wheat but hampering seasonal fieldwork.

Farther south, drier, warmer weather was beneficial for the development of irrigated cotton and also facilitated winter wheat harvesting in Uzbekistan.

Ukraine harvest update

Finally managed to find some information on how the Ukraine harvest is progressing, seems they have stopped publishing information on the Ag Ministry website as they had in previous seasons.

As of 4 July the Ministry report 576kha of early grains and pulses have been harvested (502kha in 2015) producing 2.0mmt with an average yield 3.5mt/ha (3.0mt/ha in 2015).

This includes 99kha of winter wheat with a yield of 3.7mt/ha and 457kha of winter barley with a yield of 3.5mt/ha.

I would expect wheat yields to increase as harvest moves north through the country.

Russian harvest update

As of 4 July, the Ministry report 1.4mha of grain harvested (0.7mha in 2015) producing 6.0mmt with an average yield 4.3mt/ha (3.7mt/ha in 2015).

In Krasnodar barley yield is 5.7mt/ha, down 10% on last years 6.3mt/ha, possible an indication that lodged crops have had more of an impact than previously thought.

Meanwhile in other southern regions wheat proteins are running low at 10-11%, far below the normal 13%.

Russian harvest update

Russian Ministry of Agriculture report harvest is underway in the Republic of Adygea, Kalmykia, North Ossetia-Alania, Stavropol, Krasnodar, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkess Republic.

As of 28 June, the Ministry report 670kha of grain and leguminous crops harvested (317kha in 2015) producing 2.9mmt with an average yield 4.3mt/ha (3.9mt/ha in 2015).

The Southern Federal District harvested 1.1mmt from ​​207kha (87kha in 2015) with an average yield of 5.4mt/ha (5.5mt/ha in 2015).

This includes the Republic of Adygea 90.7kmt from 17.8kha to yield 5.1mt/ha (5.4mt/ha in 2015); Republic of Kalmykia 42kmt from 12.7kha to yield 3.3mt/ha (2.6mt/ha in 2015); Krasnodar 990kmt from 176kha with an average yield of 5.6mt/ha (5.9mt/ha in 2015). 

The North Caucasus Federal District harvested 1.4mmt from ​​343kha (193kha in 20125) with an average yield of 4.2mt/ha (3.4mt/ha in 2015) with the bulk of this coming from Stavropol.

Still early days but my contacts are telling me initial test results are showing quality is down on last year.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Favourable weather continued, with occasional showers interspersed with periods of sun aiding fieldwork and crop development.

From southern and eastern Ukraine into southern Russia, mostly sunny, occasionally hot weather accelerated winter wheat drydown and promoted a rapid harvest pace.

While daytime highs approached or topped 35°C, there was little - if any - negative impact on vegetative corn and sunflowers; corn will likely enter the tassel stage during the first or second week of July in southern Russia.

Farther west and north, showers and thunderstorms (10-50 mm) from Moldova into Belarus and Russia’s Central District benefited spring grains and vegetative summer crops.

Eastern FSU

Widespread albeit highly variable showers continued over the region’s primary spring wheat areas, while cooler, unsettled conditions settled over southern portions of the region.

For the third consecutive week, showers and thunderstorms across northern Kazakhstan and central Russia boosted soil moisture for crop establishment.

Rainfall totals varied from 1 to 51 mm, though most crop areas reported more than 5 mm.

Easternmost spring wheat areas received moderate to heavy rainfall (15-100 mm), easing moisture demands brought on by last week’s heat.

Farther south, showers (2-40 mm) provided supplemental moisture for irrigated cotton and resulted in cooler-than-normal temperatures (up to 3°C below normal) from northern Uzbekistan and southern Kazakhstan into eastern Kyrgyzstan.

UK farming post EU

As the UK voted to shoot itself squarely in the foot, the implications are falling out of the tree and will continue do so for years to come.

The task now for UK farming will be how to remain competitive with reduced financial support, how to deal with export barriers to their largest market and how to discourage governments likely to favour cheaper food to sweeten the bitter pill of EU exit fall out.

Probably worth UK farming lobbies learning a little Russian so they can study the impact of self-inflicted trade isolationism first hand.

Russia, in retaliation to EU and US sanctions, introduced an embargo on imports of many food and agriculture commodities.

The response was for Russia to implement an import substitution policy which essentially sounded like a “Buy Russian” and “Dig for Victory” campaign.

One outcome that is sure is that once the UK triggers the leave process they have two years in which to negotiate a position with the EU but there is no requirement for a position to be agreed or in place within that two year period.  At the end of two years the UK will revert to World Trade Organisation rules regardless.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture said last week that membership of the WTO has done little for domestic farming and the industry has only been restored with the help of Russia's food embargo.

He might be pushing it to say Russian agriculture has been restored but you get the idea.

The Minister went on to say that "we have learned to live without Europe with regard to food, we will learn to pay attention to our processing capacities and develop our own equipment".

Early comments from the UK National Farmers Union, who ran a remain campaign and are now preparing to make British farming work without a carrot but with plenty of stick, is to “Buy British” and “Dig for Victory”.

Clearly the UK has a long way to go.

Russian harvest update

Russian Ministry of Agriculture report 124kha of grain and leguminous crops harvested so far (64kha in 2015) producing 587kmt with an average yield 4.7mt/ha (4.6mt/ha in 2015).

Republic of Adygea harvested 50.3kmt from 9.8kha to yield 5.1mt/ha (5.5mt/ha in 2015); Stavropol 336kmt from 75.6kha with an average yield of 4.5mt/ha (3.9mt/ha in 2015); Krasnodar harvested 194kmt from 36kha with an average yield of 5.4mt/ha (5.9mt/ha in 2015).

My early reports on quality is variable from poor to great, I assume that’ll settle down as we get more samples in.

Russia and Ukraine start harvest

Winter wheat harvest has started in southern Russia and Crimea with early yields coming off at an average of 4.9mt/ha which compares with 4.5mt/ha in 2015. 

My contacts are telling me they are quietly confident of good crops this year although some combine drivers have been reporting of lower yields further east.

It’s very early days so I wouldn’t read too much into figures at this stage but it’s worth noting that commentators are just now starting to pick up on possible problems with Black Sea winter crops such as lodging, excessive number of weeds, low protein and high fungal disease levels.

This is something we first highlighted about three weeks ago during our crop tour, another example of why it might be worth signing up to our timely service.

Bloomberg report Russia is preparing to harvest more barley than last year with as much as 18.5mmt, mostly used as feed, after a warm winter followed by spring rains.  That’s if it doesn’t all fall over first.

CLAAS signs a special investment contract with Russia

German agricultural machinery manufacturer, CLAAS has signed a special investment contract with Russia which among other things gives the company official status as "Russian manufacturer" and therefore eligible for state subsidies.

Around 72mha of land is currently used for farming although it’s reported that 122mha is suitable and with the current policy of export substitution and bringing land back into production, the demand for combines and other machinery is high.

"The Russian agricultural sector has a truly promising future. This contract now makes state-of-the-art agricultural machinery affordable for Russian businesses", explains Lothar Kriszun, Spokesman of the CLAAS Executive Board.

Maybe so but whether expensive western machines fit that bill remains to be seen as domestic machinery producer, Rostselmash, sold out of their very capable and keenly priced combines earlier this year.

Latest Black Sea Plantings

As of June 10 Ukraine had planted 7.3mha of spring grains and pulses, up on the previous year when they had achieved 6.9mha.  

This includes 2.2mha of spring cereals (169kha wheat; 1.8mha barley; 213kha oats) and 4.4mha corn.  In addition to the above farmers planted 5.5mha of sunflower (up 15% on 2015) and 1.86mha of soya.

Meanwhile as of 21 June Russia had planted 51mha of spring crops, down slightly on 51.8mha in 2015.  

This includes 13.6mha of wheat, 7.8mha barley and 2.8mha of corn.  In addition to the above farmers planted 7.0mha of sunflowers and 2.0mha of soya.

The UK EU referendum

The UK goes to the polls tomorrow to decide if we want to remain in the EU or leave, I’ve lived in and outside the EU and I know where I'd rather be.

Living outside the EU meant I've dealt with a multitude of pointless border checks, unnecessary suspicion, baggage searches, bribery and corruption not to mention expensive visa’s and intransigent bureaucracy.

When I think of the EU I tend think of a wonderful wider European continent and not abroad but as an extension of where I was born, so it’ll come as no surprise then if I say I’m not entirely stoked by the idea leaving.

Building barriers, walls or deeper moats goes against my sense of problem solving, we don't need to build the wall higher, we need to solve the root cause of the problem if indeed there is one.  If history has taught us anything it’s nothing ever good comes from a wall.

I want my children to grow up in a multi-cultural society and to have a multi-cultural perspective, I want them to be bi-lingual or tri-lingual, enjoy tapas, bratwurst and smoked carp, have international friends and partners, know how to cook a globe artichoke, to study at one of the universities dotted throughout Europe, get a job in one country after another, travel and work freely across an expanding European Union and not sit at home, blinkered, blaming anything they consider to be different for all the problems in their world. 

The more we are exposed to a new things the sooner it becomes accepted and not different, like garlic, remember when garlic was an exotic thing?

It makes little difference to me if legislation is delivered from Brussels or Whitehall, most of us are about as detached from the process of running a country as is practicably possible.  We all like to say how we’d run the country safe in the knowledge that we don’t and there will never be any consequences to our ideas however sound or crack pot they may be because we are not running the country.

It’s the same way we like to be armchair football managers and proclaim how a diamond or 4,4,2 would resolve the perpetual problem on the left but we’ll never know because we are not actually football managers.

The EU is not evil, it’s not full of people trying to think up new ways to specifically target Britain with burdensome bureaucracy, it has achieved a lot of good and will continue to do so with or without Britland.

It is, however, a bit of a basket case and long overdue an overhaul, reboot or reset, but surely it’s better to be in inside the tent pissing out rather than outside the tent.

It's probably too late in the day to ask not what the EU can do for me, but what can I do for the EU, but it's possibly the question we should have been asking all along.

Vive la Europe.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Mostly favourable weather prevailed, with rain in western and northern growing areas contrasting with dry conditions for much of the week in southern Russia.

A persistent blocking high over northern Eurasia continued to cause storms to drift and stall over Ukraine and northern Russia.

As a result, an additional 10 to 55mm of rain from central Ukraine into western and northern Russia sustained adequate to abundant soil moisture for filling winter wheat as well as vegetative corn, soybeans, and sunflowers in Moldova, Ukraine, and western Russia.

However, key southern Russian winter wheat areas of Rostov and Krasnodar Krai (located in the southwestern Southern District) were dry for much of the week, which enabled winter wheat maturation and drydown.

After a cool start to the week, increasingly warm weather (30-34°C) developed over much of Russia as well as western-most crop areas.

Eastern FSU

Beneficial showers continued over the region’s primary spring wheat areas, while early-season heat lingered over eastern portions of the region.

For the second consecutive week, showers and thunderstorms (10-55 mm) across northern Kazakhstan and central Russia boosted soil moisture for crop establishment.

Localized pockets of dry weather continued in Russia’s Siberia District, but most areas have sufficient soil moisture for proper spring wheat development.

Eastern-most spring wheat areas experienced daytime highs at or above 30°C, which accelerated crop development but also increased evapotranspiration rates.

Farther south, seasonable heat continued - albeit not as hot as last week - with daytime readings topping 35°C (locally as high as 40°C in Uzbekistan and 44°C in Turkmenistan) across much of the region’s southern tier.

The heat was accompanied by showers and thunderstorms (10-50 mm, locally more than 100 mm), which provided supplemental moisture for vegetative cotton and also boosted irrigation reserves.

Second Black Sea Crop Tour of 2016 finished

We have completed the June Black Sea Crop Tour and reports are now available.

Over ten days we drove 5,000km through 16 oblasts of Ukraine and Russia, made nearly 1,000 crop observations and 70 detailed assessments, posted 157 pictures and 20 video reports on the Crop Tour Twitter account, visited four farms and consumed a gallon of borscht.

We now have two 2,000 words reports with forecasts on wheat, corn, sunflower and soya output for harvest 16 based on weighted yields according to our observations and assessments.

You can buy these reports direct for £125 each or subscribe to this and the three remaining tours planned for this seasons and get access to the Crop Tour Twitter account for £550.

In other developments we are starting to extend our network of crop reporters who are able to send in updates from around the region which will give us greater and more frequent coverage and we might also be tapping in to farm based weather stations to give us further insight.

We are also in discussion aimed at extending our services beyond the Black Sea region, can’t say too much right now but watch this space.

If you would like to support our efforts in providing independent assessments and yield forecasts of key commodity crops from major agricultural regions then please join our club, we’d be happy to have you on board.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Unsettled weather prevailed over central and northern portions of the region, while somewhat drier weather returned to primary southern wheat areas.

A persistent blocking high over northern Eurasia caused storms to drift and stall over Ukraine and Russia for a third consecutive week.

As a result, an additional 10 to 30 mm of rain was reported from central Ukraine into central and northern Russia, while moderate to heavy rainfall (20-80 mm) was observed in Russia’s North Caucasus District.

As a result, soil moisture remained adequate to abundant for reproductive to filling winter wheat as well as vegetative corn, soybeans, and sunflowers in Moldova, Ukraine, and Russia.

However, key Russian winter wheat areas of Rostov and Krasnodar Krai* in the southwestern Southern District were favourably drier (mostly less than 5 mm), with this week’s respite from recent wetness facilitating fieldwork and crop maturation.

Temperatures averaged 2 to 5°C below normal, which slowed crop development but also minimized heat concerns following a warm, locally hot start to the month.

(*The picture is from Stavropol last week, Stavropol neighbours Krasnodar Krai)

Eastern FSU

Beneficial rain returned to the region’s primary spring wheat areas, though early-season heat expanded northward out of South Asia. 

Following a much-drier-than-normal May, which enabled rapid spring wheat planting but also reduced soil moisture, moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-80 mm) across northern Kazakhstan and central Russia were timely for crop establishment. 

There were pockets of dry weather noted in Russia’s Siberia District, but most crop areas now have sufficient soil moisture for proper spring wheat development. 

Farther south, excessive heat expanded northward from southern Asia, with daytime readings topping 38°C (locally as high 43°C in Uzbekistan and 47°C in Turkmenistan) across much of the region’s southern tier. 

Some of this heat (32-34°C) expanded into northeastern Kazakhstan and the Siberia District. 

While the hot conditions caused high evapo-transpiration rates and increased irrigation requirements, spring wheat (north) and cotton (south) were not yet in the temperature-sensitive reproductive stages of development.

Second Black Sea Crop Tour successfully completed

We have successfully completed the second Black Sea Crop Tour of 2016.

I have yet to add up the route but I think we covered around 4KKM across Ukraine and Russia taking in central, southern and eastern Ukraine and central and southern Russia.

Those of you that subscribe will have followed events through the members only Twitter account and been able to watch the tour through pictures, videos and comments.

There are a couple of issues that have the potential to impact on harvest 2016 and as yet these are not being picked up by the mainstream media and I believe these issues could only be ascertained by driving across the grain growing regions first hand.

I am now back in the office writing up the follow up reports for both countries and these will be sent out to subscribers shortly.

If you would like to subscribe and support our service and then drop me a line, you will then be able to access the members Twitter account (with pictures, video and comments), receive copies of the tour reports (and the previous tours) and follow three more tours scheduled for this year.

Thanks to my team for helping me organise and run each tour and to our members who's support and contribution makes the whole thing happen.

Second Black Sea Crop Tour kicks off tomorrow

Tomorrow I kick off the second Black Sea Crop Tour of 2016 when I head to Ukraine.

Over the next nine to ten days the team and I plan to cover around 4,000km of central, south and eastern Ukraine and Central and south Russia.

The aim of this crop tour is to assess the condition of the newly emerged spring crops of corn, sunflower and soyabeans but we will also comment on the condition of cereal crops plus anything else that is noteworthy.

I will post daily updates during the tour on the subscribers twitter account @BSCT_01 which will consist of comment and opinion, photographs and videos.

We also have a couple of farm visits lined up and will be chatting to the guys there to see how their season has been progressing and what thoughts they may have for the coming weeks.

Drop me a line if you would like to subscribe and support us in delivering the only truly independent Black Sea Crop Tour and to receive access to the tour Twitter account and follow up reports.

From what I'm hearing we'll need to pack waterproofs.

Adieu for now.

Has the Russian food embargo just turned a corner?

EU US sanctions and Russia’s food embargo have been in the news this week when France granted Russia’s Agriculture Minister, who is banned from visiting the EU, a visa so he could meet up with his counterpart in Paris.

To recap the story so far, pay attention now; the EU impose sanctions on Russia for Russia’s violations in Ukraine; Russia respond by saying they are not in Ukraine and retaliate with an embargo on EU and US food; Russia tries to turn the problem of food supply in to an opportunity for domestic farmers while EU and US farmers hurting from the sudden closure of the Russian market lobby to get the embargo lifted; nothing seems to happen for two years then this week France open the door to the Russian Minster of Agriculture while the Greek PM stands shoulder to shoulder with the Russian President and proclaims sanctions imposed on Russia are not productive in a week when the EU is expected to renew sanctions and Russia plans to extend the food embargo until the end of 2017.

Got all that?

What I think we might be seeing is, if not the beginning of the end of sanctions then the beginning of the beginning to talk about ending sanctions and lifting the food embargo.

This week the Russian Agriculture Ministry announced plans to extend the food embargo until the end of 2017 although they will not expand the list of the products prohibited for import to Russia. 

Planning is not the same as doing and in my mind sounds like part of a negotiation process; why announce you’re planning to do something unless you’re giving room for negotiation.  Furthermore the comment that they will not expand the list could also be seen as a sign of good faith.

The Minister went on to say the food embargo is “good news for domestic agricultural producers”.

Maybe so but the EU, who have avoided lodging a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) thus far might have their hand forced as Poland, who have been hit hard by the embargo have sent a request to European Trade Commissioner who represent EU members in WTO cases.

The Commission has said they will respond by September 12^th which kind of puts a meaningful time frame for finding a solution to the current situation which despite rhetoric and strong words must be hurting everyone.

Something else that might further put a damper on the Russian Ag Ministers good news story is the report that Russia could face an oversupply of meat, in particular pork and poultry if it continues to increase production at the current rates.

Russia has increased meat production by 13.5% in the period from January to April 2016 compared to the same period last year and some Russian meat producers are concerned enough to have petitioned the government to stop subsidising the meat industry as it was affecting the price. 

That’s the problem with centrally planned agriculture, it’s virtually impossible to find the right balance but you’d think we would all know that by now.

So France granting Russia’s Agriculture Minister a visa could be construed that behind the scenes negotiations might just have moved to in front of the scenes which could be counted as progress of sorts.

Black Sea mid-week agri-news

Ukraine's new Minister of Agriculture is backing land reform which including selling leasing rights to encourage banks to lend against the asset; I’m not yet sure how this differs from current arrangements.

The USDA out the worst kept agricultural secret this week when they report that an estimated 80% of Ukraine soybeans and 10% of corn are grown illegally from genetically modified seed.  They don’t go on to expand how those US produced GM bean seeds managed to end up in Ukraine in the first place though.

Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture report latest plantings as corn 4.3mha, 95% of forecast (4.1mha at the same period in 2015), sunflower 5.0mha, 95% of forecast (4.5mha in 2015) and soya 1.7mha, 84% (1.9mha in 2015).

Russian cereal plantings are ahead on last year but likely to slow with wet conditions over much of the region; spring sowing currently stand at ​​37.1mha, up 3.7mha on the same point last year.

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture report this week that grain exports stand at 31.8mmt from July 1, 2015 to May 18, 2016, up 12.8% compared with the same period last year.

Russia also reported that fertiliser purchased between January and May is up a substantial 17% on the corresponding period last year.

Russia’s weather and environment department, Roshydromet report the 2016 harvest will be comparable with five year average indices of between 102-105mmt.  They go on to say that precipitation has been sufficient in most regions but might be problem later in the season in Volga and central western Russia.

Although we reported this last week, commentators are starting to flag up how current weather (rain) has increased the risk lodging in winter grains in Ukraine and Russia.  Also worth mentioning that lodging causes humid conditions conducive to mycotoxin production.

Furthermore we have several independent contacts reporting delayed and missed fungicides leaving the window open to fungal diseases in particular fusarium with associated mycotoxin and if that wasn't enough the wet weather will have increased risk of grains sprouting in the ear.

Meanwhile France granted the Russian Agricultural Minister an entry visa even though he is on the EU banned list and he has now met with his French counterpart while at the same time the EU admit they have made limited progress in talks with Russia to restore the pork trade.

At this moment it certainly looks like France might break ranks to negotiate a better trading position for themselves with Russia.

And finally it was reported this week that UK rural broadband is ‘worse than ex-Soviet bloc’ which is not news to some of us is it Virgin Media?

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Wet weather prevailed over much of the region, sustaining good to excellent winter crop prospects but curtailing seasonal fieldwork.

A slow-moving disturbance triggered widespread showers and thunderstorms - some with large hail and heavy downpours - from eastern Belarus and northern Ukraine into western and southern Russia.

Hail was most prominent in central and southern portions of Russia’s Southern District early in the period, but impacts on regional crop production were minor, if any.

In fact, the rain (10-70 mm, locally more) maintained good to excellent prospects for reproductive to filling winter wheat in Russia and Ukraine, though late summer crop sowing was slowed or halted by the locally heavy downpours.

Eastern FSU

Favourably dry weather in the north contrasted with additional beneficial rainfall in southern portions of the region.

Across northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia, sunny skies and near-normal temperatures promoted a rapid pace of spring wheat planting.

However, for a second consecutive week eastern-most portions of the spring wheat belt tallied heavier showers (10-40 mm), slowing fieldwork but maintaining adequate to abundant soil moisture for wheat establishment.

Farther south, heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-95 mm, locally more) over eastern Uzbekistan and environs provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was in the reproductive to grainfill stages of development.

Second Black Sea Crop Tour of the season to get underway

Reports out of Ukraine and Russia seem to be saying the same thing; all is good and another barn busting crop is on the way.

I have no doubt there is but my contacts who are spread out all over Ukraine and Russia keep slipping comments in their emails along the lines of missed fertiliser applications, delayed fungicides, rain delaying planting, cool weather hurting newly emerged spring crops and I hope the wheat doesn’t fall over.

Standard stuff in farming circles I know but now it’s time I took a look for myself.

From Sunday I will head out to Ukraine to meet up with colleagues then hit the road on Monday to kick off the second crop tour of the 2016 season.

After a few days driving around Ukraine I will cross the border into Russia to do the same thing there.

The main target of this crop tour will be to assess the general condition of the main spring planted crops of corn, sunflower and soya but I will also take a view on wheat plus anything else of note.

As with previous tours I will tweet in real time what we are seeing on the member’s only Twitter account @BSCT_01 including comments, photographs and videos.

The last trip produced 173 tweets including 80 photographs and 40 video reports with two written reports.

Drop me a line via the "contact me here.." bit to the right of this blog if you would like to sign up to the only truly independent Black Sea Crop Tour and find out what crops are really like in Ukraine and Russia.

Gathering crop intelligence and crop tours

When trying to get a handle on crop condition, weather and likely impact on yields, remote reports and satellite data have a place but they don’t always give you the full story.

This week I have read several upbeat reports on conditions in Ukraine and Russia stating that warm, wet spring weather has paved the way for a large wheat harvest and that spring sowing is progressing well with hectares planted already up on last year.

At the same time I received a less than upbeat report from a farming buddy in Russia telling me it’s still cold and wet there, sowing is well behind schedule, they are unable to finish fertiliser on wheat and spraying is late.

Several farming pals across Ukraine and Russia are also independently telling me wheat fungicides are behind, hail has damaged some crops and the wet weather is causing wheat to grow very tall with large heads increasing the risk of falling over particularly as they missed PGR timings.

Clearly it’s not a catastrophe and there is a lot of good crop knocking about in the Black Sea region but it’s not all good news and we are still some time off the first harvest with many things that could erode yield and quality.

That black earth might be revered stuff but it doesn’t hold on to water for very long; a couple of weeks of hot dry weather with high transpiration rates and drought quickly becomes a possibility.

Those late or missed fertiliser applications will translate directly into reduced yield and late season fusarium which is always a problem will take full advantage of late fungicides.

To that end that is why our Black Sea Crop Tours have a place in gathering crop intelligence; remote reports, satellite data, expert opinion all have a place but I believe they should be complemented with an honest, muddy boots on the ground, objective and subjective assessment.

Later this month I will be kicking off the second Black Sea Crop Tour of the season specifically to look at the condition of recently planted corn, sunflower and soya but we will also be taking a look at the condition of cereals to see how good or bad things really are.

Drop me a line if you would like to sign up.

Ukraine Russia upbeat on crop condition

Indications and reports out of Ukraine and Russia is that crop condition is good, mild weather and rains have boosted the chances of producing if not a record crop then a close run thing.

Rusagrotrans, Russia's rail freighting holding company, have just increased their grain production forecast for Russia from 103mmt to 105mmt.

Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture go slightly further with their latest forecast pegged at 106mmt including 62.5mmt of wheat which would be the second highest crop on record.

Across the border in Ukraine they are putting an equally positive spin on harvest potential with the ministry reporting that 82% of the winter crop was in good and satisfactory (they actually go on to say 18% is in poor condition and there are 2% losses which adds up to more than 100% but you get the general idea).

True enough some of Ukraine’s wheat crop took a hit last autumn and winter with the number of hectares down around 13% on last year but what was left didn’t look too bad when we toured the region in April.

Not entirely clear what that shortfall will be made up with in Ukraine, probably corn, but spring plantings in both countries has taken advantage of good weather and are ahead on last year which further bodes well for good yields.

Not wanting to be the one that rains on this particular parade but I am receiving reports from several independent sources across Ukraine and Russia that rain has delayed fertiliser and fungicide applications on winter crops which in itself shouldn’t put too large a dent in yields but will still have an impact none the less.

A couple of farming contacts have quietly mentioned the crops are growing tall and they hope that a) they don’t start falling over and b) all that biomass translates into grain and not just straw.

I’m currently planning Crop Tours III and IV of the season which are due to kick off at the end of this month, primarily to look at post planting conditions of spring planted corn, sunflower and soya but we will undoubtedly be taking a view on the condition of wheat.

I’m not for a minute saying we aren’t going to see a large wheat crop particularly from Russia but it’s still a long way to harvest and lodged crops with increased disease pressure, perhaps with an added heatwave later in the season and a wet harvest might just conspire to keep records safe for another season.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Wet weather over central and southern portions of the region contrasted with favourably drier conditions in the north.

An area of high pressure brought sunny skies to much of north-western Russia, accelerating spring grain and summer crop planting following two months of above-normal precipitation.

In contrast, a stalled frontal boundary coupled with an influx of warm, humid air resulted in widespread showers and thunderstorms (15-85 mm) from Moldova, Ukraine, and southern Belarus into central and southern Russia.

The rain maintained good to excellent prospects for reproductive to filling winter wheat, though sowing of corn, sunflowers, and soybeans was slowed or halted by the locally heavy downpours.

Eastern FSU

Generally dry weather in the north contrasted with additional heavy rainfall in southern portions of the region.

Across northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia, rainfall was generally light (5 mm or less), promoting a rapid pace of spring wheat planting.

However, eastern and western most portions of the spring wheat belt tallied heavier showers (15-35 mm), slowing fieldwork but maintaining adequate to abundant soil moisture for crop establishment.

For the second consecutive week, freezes (-8 to -2°C) posed little - if any - threat to recently emerged spring wheat.

Farther south, heavy showers and thunderstorms (25-125 mm, locally more) over central and eastern Uzbekistan provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was in the reproductive to early grain-fill stages of development.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Additional widespread showers sustained favourable soil moisture supplies for vegetative to reproductive winter wheat, though the wet weather continued to slow fieldwork.

An upper air disturbance drifted across the region, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms (5-30 mm) over Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia.

The rainfall maintained adequate to abundant soil moisture for vegetative (north) to reproductive (south) winter wheat.

However, the unsettled conditions slowed or temporarily halted summer crop and spring wheat planting, particularly in southern and eastern portions of the region.

Temperatures averaged near normal in most major growing areas, with no untimely freezes or early-season heat reported.

Eastern FSU

Sunny, cool weather in the north contrasted with locally heavy showers in southern portions of the region.

Across the primary spring wheat belt (northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia), dry weather enabled a rapid sowing pace.

This week’s freezes (-6 to - 2°C) did not pose much - if any - threat to recently emerged spring wheat.

Farther south, moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-40 mm, locally more) over central and eastern Uzbekistan provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was likely progressing through the reproductive stages of development.

Virgin fails to deliver

A combination of work, laziness and domestic chores kept me of blog and twitter for a while but that pales into insignificance over my internet provider’s inability to provide me with internet.

It has been three weeks since I first contacted Virgin Media to report my broadband was on the blink, I won’t bore you with the details but the experience has been akin to repeatedly smashing my head against a brick wall while HAL, the computer from 2001 Space Odyssey, says “I’m sorry Mike, I can’t do that”.

I guess that’s what you get when you sign up to a company fronted by a failed Christmas tree farmer and drug advocate.

Turns out slow internet speeds, intermittent access, no mobile reception and excessive bills topped off with piss poor customer service is a democratic problem in the UK as everyone gets to experience it at some point. 

After living in the former Soviet Union for the last ten years, with its tip top, cheap, fast and reliable internet, I can tell the people of the UK, you are being taken for a ride, I'd complain if I was you, surely someone appointed an internet Czar, try him or her for starters.

Anyway, I now have a piece of string between two tin cans and a flock of messenger pigeons to hand so I can start catching up with the backlog of work; apologies if you’ve been waiting for a reply to an email, normal service is being resumed.

Congratulations to Leicester City FC for winning the English Premier League.

Black Sea Crop Tour update

The first Black Sea Crop Tour of 2016 season is now finished.

Over the course of the last ten days we travelled 3,100km through Russia and Ukraine; crossed 16 Oblasts; made 584 crop observations and 64 detailed crop assessments; posted 172 Tweets on the dedicated crop tour Twitter account (@BSCT_01) including 80 photographs and 39 video reports; interviewed four farmers; slept in nine different locations including a train and a boat; consumed an estimated 4.5 litres of borscht and were stopped only twice.

All in all a successful trip.

The data we collected has now been presented and is available in two reports, one for Russia and one for Ukraine, which include detail on our route, methodology, what we found and my opinion on the condition of the winter wheat crop and the potential as it moves into the spring.

Drop me a line for subscription details if you would like a copy of either report or for future tour information planned for the rest of this season.

After a brief period of recovery we set out again in May/June to look at the post-emergence condition of spring planted corn, sunflower and soya with particular focus on limitations to crop development from dryness or cold (or indeed even heat).

After that we will head out again to look at the pre-harvest yield estimations of all crops in July and August.

Feel free to drop me a line via the “Contact me here…” box to the right of this page if you have any questions.

Thanks for all the continued support.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Warmer, wetter weather expanded over the region following a brief cold snap at the end of March.

A warm, southerly flow prevailed for much of the week, with temperatures averaging 2 to 6°C above normal from Belarus and western Ukraine into central Russia.

The return of warmer weather allowed winter grains to resume adding vegetative growth, particularly from southern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern and North Caucasus Districts.

In addition, widespread light to moderate rain (2-35 mm) in these southern areas sustained good to excellent soil moisture for crop growth, though winter wheat areas in central and southern Ukraine continued to exhibit poor vegetation health (as depicted in satellite imagery) due to a severe autumn drought.

Meanwhile, rain and late-week snow (10-50 mm liquid equivalent) sustained abundant moisture reserves for spring growth from Belarus into Russia’s Volga District.

At week’s end, a cold front ushered cooler weather back into the region, though there were no concerns for a damaging hard freeze.

The Black Sea Crop Tour finally gets underway

The latest official winter crop condition for Ukraine published yesterday show that from the 6.9mha of crop that emerged in the autumn 5.1mha or 75% are in good and satisfactory condition with 1.7mha or 25% in poor condition.

Which doesn’t sound good and even more so if you recognise there is a tendency to embellish the positive when collecting data so things could actually be much worse.

With that in mind I have planned a crop tour route through Ukraine’s more harder hit regions in southern and eastern oblasts to take a view on the situation there myself. 

But before that I set off to Russia in the morning to assess the post winter crop condition there which has so far been reported as generally good with no significant issues.

There is still plenty of time to subscribe if you would like to follow the tour in real time as I post pictures and commentary on our dedicated Crop Tour Twitter account, just drop me a line and I’ll send you details by return.

Latest news for Black Sea Crop Tours 2016

After a hectic few weeks sorting out visas, flights, vehicles, drivers, security, routes, accommodation, I can finally announce the first Black Sea Crop Tour of the season is go.

I am currently in London with passport & visa and will be flying to Moscow on Saturday to kick off the Russian leg of the tour on Sunday.

The plan is to head east to look at the condition of winter wheat in the areas where I believe it has been at most risk.

We will leave the southern regions until the May tour as all indications are there are no particular issues there at this time.

After four days we will return west and cross into Ukraine before heading to the southern regions to take a look at crops there which have suffered from a dry autumn and difficult winter before heading north through the centre of the country.

You’ll appreciate why we are being a little vague with our travel plans but we intend to cover around 3,000km over eight days of what I believe to be the key winter crop areas requiring assessment.

I will be reporting the crop condition in real time to subscribers via our member’s only Twitter account (not yet live) and will follow up the tour with a full report of findings, analysis and comment.

There is still time to sign up (details on the Crop Tour page, above) and to those of you who have yet to hear back from me, I will be in contact today/tomorrow.

After this tour we will have a short break before running the second tour of the season to look at the condition of the emerging spring crops with particular interest in corn, sunflower and soya.

Any questions email me at the usual address or via the contact form on this page and I will do my best to get back to you as soon as I can.

Wish us luck.

Black Sea Crop Tour 2016; update

A weeks a long time in politics and, so it seems, in planning a Crop Tour.

Thanks to all those who have registered an interest in subscribing and supporting this years Crop Tours.

I am working my way through getting back to you all as quickly as I can, expect an email over the weekend if you haven't already heard anything from me.

I tend to forget the time it takes to plan and execute a Crop Tour, the logistics, planning, organisation, visa, vehicles, drivers, security, tools etc but we are now getting everything in line for a kick off later this month.

Early reports are conditions are not too bad across most of the Black Sea region, an early spring with an early fertiliser will give the more backward crops a boost although it should be noted that it can still turn bitterly cold in March.

Spring cereal planting is underway with Ukraine reporting 82,800 hectares or 3% of the planned area completed while Russia has 219,300 hectares or 0.4% in the ground.

None of which will do anything to dissuade the bear market although reports that a third of the Ukraine crop is in poor condition will no doubt sit a little uncomfortably in some peoples minds.

It would only take the hint of a dry spring before the crop which is already down 10% on last year and with 33% in poor condition could start to look like a problem.

Reports that soil moisture is plentiful shouldn't be taken too literally either; chernozem and the like doesn't hold on to water all that well, wet soil can turn to dry soil and very dry soil very quickly.

Still plenty of time to subscribe, follow and support us on our second Black Sea Crop Touring season, just drop me a line.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Unsettled, unseasonably warm weather prevailed over the region, accelerating southern wheat development and keeping most crop areas uncharacteristically devoid of snow cover.

Precipitation for the week totaled 10 to 30 mm from Belarus and northern Ukraine into central Russia, boosting moisture reserves for dormant winter crops.

Precipitation was lighter in southern portions of Ukraine and Russia, where 2 to 13 mm was reported; however, soil moisture supplies remained abundant for winter wheat following a wet winter.

Temperatures averaged up to 10°C above normal, with daytime highs above freezing (3-8°C) in the north and the lower 20s along the Black Sea Coast.

Consequently, snow was confined to the Volga and northern Central Districts in Russia, in sharp contrast to the end-of February climatology of a region-wide snowpack.

Furthermore, winter crops in Krasnodar Krai (located in southern-most portions of the Southern District) continued to develop well ahead of normal.

While the recent spring like warmth has not been detrimental to winter wheat, the early development and lack of protective snow cover have left crops more vulnerable than usual to potential incursions of late-winter or early-spring bitter cold.