Wednesday 10 August 2016

Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecast 110mmt grain harvest

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture report the current total harvest at 62.5mmt, up around 30% on the same point as last year.

They go on to forecast a final harvest somewhere between 106 to 110mmt which could beat the previous record crop of 108mmt set in 2008.

Regional output figures are broadly similar to last year, give or take, with the Southern and North Caucus Districts producing an extra 3.5mmt or 11% increase and the Central District posting a 3.1mmt or -23% decrease.

The real eye opening figure is the Volga District reporting 7.8mmt extra grain on the same point last year which represents 123% increase.

I need to better understand what's going on so I will be taking a run through the Volga region shortly to have a look and see how it compares with the data we collected last year.

Wheat harvest is currently running at 45.7mmt with an average yield of 3.9mt/ha (58bu/ac), significantly up on the same point last year when the Russians had harvested 38mmt at 3.4mt/ha (50bu/ac).

Barley harvest stands at 9.2mmt (7.1mmt in 2015) with an average yield of 3.0mt/ha (56bu/ac) which is also up on last years 2.6mt/ha crop (48bu/ac).

With intermittent rains forecast for Central and Northern regions through the rest of this week and into next means we may see a slowing down of harvest activity by the next Ministry report.