Thursday 27 August 2020

Ukraine's three-year economic forecast

Ukraine’s Ministry of Economic Development, Trade, and Agriculture have adjusted their 2020 inflation forecast to 5.9%, down from their previous forecast of 11.6%.

The ministry also forecasts an average annual exchange rate of UAH27.00/USD, previously they called it UAH29.50/USD.

Other updated 2020 forecasts include a trade deficit of $5.4 billion (previously estimated at $8.3 billion), GDP UAH 3.975 trillion (down from UAH 3.985 trillion), and an increase in railway transportation tariffs by 17% this year, then 22% and 26% in the next two years.

Presumably, that rail tariff will impact on the competitiveness of Ukraine grain exports.

The ministries next three-year forecast has been approved and published by the Government, here are the headlines.

  • GDP growth 4.6% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023;
  • Consumer price index 107.3% in 2021, 106.2% in 2022 and 105.3% in 2023;
  • Increase in average monthly wage 12.1% in 2021, 6.0% in 2022 and 5.1% in 2023;
  • Unemployment rate in 9.2% in 2021, 8.5% in 2022, 8.0% in 2023;
  • Growth of exports of goods and services 2.9% in 2021, 6.4% in 2022, 8.2% in 2023.

Referring to the forecasts, Economy Minister, Igor Petrashko said "further gradual acceleration of economic growth and the formation of a quality basis for sustainable economic development in the medium term, taking into account major reforms and maintaining financial stability".

But you’d expect him to say that.