This means the final harvest figure should reach 26.9MMT, or thereabouts.
Our last forecast in July was 26.4MMT, which is within 2% of the projected final harvest figure, so we at GSAC HQ are happy with that, particularly considering the awkward COVID restrictions we had to work with.
The chart shows how our spring forecasts worked out from March onwards, although we did make our first tour and forecast in the previous November when we assessed the condition of the newly emerged crop. This helps us determine how the crop might survive over winter and allows us to set a basis come spring.
Our forecast success rate for Ukraine wheat over the previous four seasons now stands at 3%, meaning the average of all forecasts between March and July over each season are accurate to within 3% of the final yield.
Forecasting crop yield is not an exact science but we do spend a lot of time in the field which helps.
We will continue to refine and develop how we conduct our forecasts in the future and will take each season as a new learning opportunity.
A bit like farming then.
I remember someone older and wiser than me, saying they had only been farming one year, but they had done it fifty times.
Drop me an email if you would like to find out more about our Black Sea crop forecasting service, or would like to subscribe, or indeed possibly join us on one of our tours.
blackseacroptour@gmail.com