Indications and reports out of Ukraine and Russia is that crop condition is good, mild weather and rains have boosted the chances of producing if not a record crop then a close run thing.
Rusagrotrans, Russia's rail freighting holding company, have
just increased their grain production forecast for Russia from 103mmt to
105mmt.
Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture go slightly further with
their latest forecast pegged at 106mmt including 62.5mmt of wheat which would
be the second highest crop on record.
Across the border in Ukraine they are putting an equally
positive spin on harvest potential with the ministry reporting that 82% of the
winter crop was in good and satisfactory (they actually go on to say 18% is in
poor condition and there are 2% losses which adds up to more than 100% but you
get the general idea).
True enough some of Ukraine’s wheat crop took a hit last autumn
and winter with the number of hectares down around 13% on last year but what
was left didn’t look too bad when we toured the region in April.
Not entirely clear what that shortfall will be made up with
in Ukraine, probably corn, but spring plantings in both countries has taken
advantage of good weather and are ahead on last year which further bodes well
for good yields.
Not wanting to be the one that rains on this particular parade but I am
receiving reports from several independent sources across Ukraine and Russia
that rain has delayed fertiliser and fungicide applications on winter crops
which in itself shouldn’t put too large a dent in yields but will still have an
impact none the less.
A couple of farming contacts have quietly mentioned the
crops are growing tall and they hope that a) they don’t start falling over and
b) all that biomass translates into grain and not just straw.
I’m currently planning Crop Tours III and IV of the season
which are due to kick off at the end of this month, primarily to look at post
planting conditions of spring planted corn, sunflower and soya but we will
undoubtedly be taking a view on the condition of wheat.
I’m not for a minute saying we aren’t going to see a large
wheat crop particularly from Russia but it’s still a long way to harvest and
lodged crops with increased disease pressure, perhaps with an added heatwave
later in the season and a wet harvest might just conspire to keep records safe
for another season.