When trying to get a handle on crop condition, weather and likely
impact on yields, remote reports and satellite data have a place but they don’t
always give you the full story.
This week I have read several upbeat reports on conditions in
Ukraine and Russia stating that warm, wet spring weather has paved the way for
a large wheat harvest and that spring sowing is progressing well with hectares planted
already up on last year.
At the same time I received a less than upbeat report from a
farming buddy in Russia telling me it’s still cold and wet there, sowing is well
behind schedule, they are unable to finish fertiliser on wheat and spraying is late.
Several farming pals across Ukraine and Russia are also independently telling me wheat fungicides are behind, hail has damaged some crops and the wet
weather is causing wheat to grow very tall with large heads increasing the risk
of falling over particularly as they missed PGR timings.
Clearly it’s not a catastrophe and there is a lot of good
crop knocking about in the Black Sea region but it’s not all good news and we
are still some time off the first harvest with many things that could erode
yield and quality.
That black earth might be revered stuff but it doesn’t hold
on to water for very long; a couple of weeks of hot dry weather with high
transpiration rates and drought quickly becomes a possibility.
Those late or missed fertiliser applications will translate
directly into reduced yield and late season fusarium which is always a problem
will take full advantage of late fungicides.
To that end that is why our Black Sea Crop Tours have a
place in gathering crop intelligence; remote reports, satellite data, expert opinion
all have a place but I believe they should be complemented with an honest, muddy boots on
the ground, objective and subjective assessment.
Later this month I will be kicking off the second Black Sea
Crop Tour of the season specifically to look at the condition of recently
planted corn, sunflower and soya but we will also be taking a look at the
condition of cereals to see how good or bad things really are.
Drop me a line if you would like to sign up.