Second Black Sea Crop Tour kicks off tomorrow

Tomorrow I kick off the second Black Sea Crop Tour of 2016 when I head to Ukraine.

Over the next nine to ten days the team and I plan to cover around 4,000km of central, south and eastern Ukraine and Central and south Russia.

The aim of this crop tour is to assess the condition of the newly emerged spring crops of corn, sunflower and soyabeans but we will also comment on the condition of cereal crops plus anything else that is noteworthy.

I will post daily updates during the tour on the subscribers twitter account @BSCT_01 which will consist of comment and opinion, photographs and videos.

We also have a couple of farm visits lined up and will be chatting to the guys there to see how their season has been progressing and what thoughts they may have for the coming weeks.

Drop me a line if you would like to subscribe and support us in delivering the only truly independent Black Sea Crop Tour and to receive access to the tour Twitter account and follow up reports.

From what I'm hearing we'll need to pack waterproofs.

Adieu for now.

Has the Russian food embargo just turned a corner?

EU US sanctions and Russia’s food embargo have been in the news this week when France granted Russia’s Agriculture Minister, who is banned from visiting the EU, a visa so he could meet up with his counterpart in Paris.

To recap the story so far, pay attention now; the EU impose sanctions on Russia for Russia’s violations in Ukraine; Russia respond by saying they are not in Ukraine and retaliate with an embargo on EU and US food; Russia tries to turn the problem of food supply in to an opportunity for domestic farmers while EU and US farmers hurting from the sudden closure of the Russian market lobby to get the embargo lifted; nothing seems to happen for two years then this week France open the door to the Russian Minster of Agriculture while the Greek PM stands shoulder to shoulder with the Russian President and proclaims sanctions imposed on Russia are not productive in a week when the EU is expected to renew sanctions and Russia plans to extend the food embargo until the end of 2017.

Got all that?

What I think we might be seeing is, if not the beginning of the end of sanctions then the beginning of the beginning to talk about ending sanctions and lifting the food embargo.

This week the Russian Agriculture Ministry announced plans to extend the food embargo until the end of 2017 although they will not expand the list of the products prohibited for import to Russia. 

Planning is not the same as doing and in my mind sounds like part of a negotiation process; why announce you’re planning to do something unless you’re giving room for negotiation.  Furthermore the comment that they will not expand the list could also be seen as a sign of good faith.

The Minister went on to say the food embargo is “good news for domestic agricultural producers”.

Maybe so but the EU, who have avoided lodging a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) thus far might have their hand forced as Poland, who have been hit hard by the embargo have sent a request to European Trade Commissioner who represent EU members in WTO cases.

The Commission has said they will respond by September 12^th which kind of puts a meaningful time frame for finding a solution to the current situation which despite rhetoric and strong words must be hurting everyone.

Something else that might further put a damper on the Russian Ag Ministers good news story is the report that Russia could face an oversupply of meat, in particular pork and poultry if it continues to increase production at the current rates.

Russia has increased meat production by 13.5% in the period from January to April 2016 compared to the same period last year and some Russian meat producers are concerned enough to have petitioned the government to stop subsidising the meat industry as it was affecting the price. 

That’s the problem with centrally planned agriculture, it’s virtually impossible to find the right balance but you’d think we would all know that by now.

So France granting Russia’s Agriculture Minister a visa could be construed that behind the scenes negotiations might just have moved to in front of the scenes which could be counted as progress of sorts.

Black Sea mid-week agri-news

Ukraine's new Minister of Agriculture is backing land reform which including selling leasing rights to encourage banks to lend against the asset; I’m not yet sure how this differs from current arrangements.

The USDA out the worst kept agricultural secret this week when they report that an estimated 80% of Ukraine soybeans and 10% of corn are grown illegally from genetically modified seed.  They don’t go on to expand how those US produced GM bean seeds managed to end up in Ukraine in the first place though.

Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture report latest plantings as corn 4.3mha, 95% of forecast (4.1mha at the same period in 2015), sunflower 5.0mha, 95% of forecast (4.5mha in 2015) and soya 1.7mha, 84% (1.9mha in 2015).

Russian cereal plantings are ahead on last year but likely to slow with wet conditions over much of the region; spring sowing currently stand at ​​37.1mha, up 3.7mha on the same point last year.

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture report this week that grain exports stand at 31.8mmt from July 1, 2015 to May 18, 2016, up 12.8% compared with the same period last year.

Russia also reported that fertiliser purchased between January and May is up a substantial 17% on the corresponding period last year.

Russia’s weather and environment department, Roshydromet report the 2016 harvest will be comparable with five year average indices of between 102-105mmt.  They go on to say that precipitation has been sufficient in most regions but might be problem later in the season in Volga and central western Russia.

Although we reported this last week, commentators are starting to flag up how current weather (rain) has increased the risk lodging in winter grains in Ukraine and Russia.  Also worth mentioning that lodging causes humid conditions conducive to mycotoxin production.

Furthermore we have several independent contacts reporting delayed and missed fungicides leaving the window open to fungal diseases in particular fusarium with associated mycotoxin and if that wasn't enough the wet weather will have increased risk of grains sprouting in the ear.

Meanwhile France granted the Russian Agricultural Minister an entry visa even though he is on the EU banned list and he has now met with his French counterpart while at the same time the EU admit they have made limited progress in talks with Russia to restore the pork trade.

At this moment it certainly looks like France might break ranks to negotiate a better trading position for themselves with Russia.

And finally it was reported this week that UK rural broadband is ‘worse than ex-Soviet bloc’ which is not news to some of us is it Virgin Media?

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Wet weather prevailed over much of the region, sustaining good to excellent winter crop prospects but curtailing seasonal fieldwork.

A slow-moving disturbance triggered widespread showers and thunderstorms - some with large hail and heavy downpours - from eastern Belarus and northern Ukraine into western and southern Russia.

Hail was most prominent in central and southern portions of Russia’s Southern District early in the period, but impacts on regional crop production were minor, if any.

In fact, the rain (10-70 mm, locally more) maintained good to excellent prospects for reproductive to filling winter wheat in Russia and Ukraine, though late summer crop sowing was slowed or halted by the locally heavy downpours.

Eastern FSU

Favourably dry weather in the north contrasted with additional beneficial rainfall in southern portions of the region.

Across northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia, sunny skies and near-normal temperatures promoted a rapid pace of spring wheat planting.

However, for a second consecutive week eastern-most portions of the spring wheat belt tallied heavier showers (10-40 mm), slowing fieldwork but maintaining adequate to abundant soil moisture for wheat establishment.

Farther south, heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-95 mm, locally more) over eastern Uzbekistan and environs provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was in the reproductive to grainfill stages of development.

Second Black Sea Crop Tour of the season to get underway

Reports out of Ukraine and Russia seem to be saying the same thing; all is good and another barn busting crop is on the way.

I have no doubt there is but my contacts who are spread out all over Ukraine and Russia keep slipping comments in their emails along the lines of missed fertiliser applications, delayed fungicides, rain delaying planting, cool weather hurting newly emerged spring crops and I hope the wheat doesn’t fall over.

Standard stuff in farming circles I know but now it’s time I took a look for myself.

From Sunday I will head out to Ukraine to meet up with colleagues then hit the road on Monday to kick off the second crop tour of the 2016 season.

After a few days driving around Ukraine I will cross the border into Russia to do the same thing there.

The main target of this crop tour will be to assess the general condition of the main spring planted crops of corn, sunflower and soya but I will also take a view on wheat plus anything else of note.

As with previous tours I will tweet in real time what we are seeing on the member’s only Twitter account @BSCT_01 including comments, photographs and videos.

The last trip produced 173 tweets including 80 photographs and 40 video reports with two written reports.

Drop me a line via the "contact me here.." bit to the right of this blog if you would like to sign up to the only truly independent Black Sea Crop Tour and find out what crops are really like in Ukraine and Russia.

Gathering crop intelligence and crop tours

When trying to get a handle on crop condition, weather and likely impact on yields, remote reports and satellite data have a place but they don’t always give you the full story.

This week I have read several upbeat reports on conditions in Ukraine and Russia stating that warm, wet spring weather has paved the way for a large wheat harvest and that spring sowing is progressing well with hectares planted already up on last year.

At the same time I received a less than upbeat report from a farming buddy in Russia telling me it’s still cold and wet there, sowing is well behind schedule, they are unable to finish fertiliser on wheat and spraying is late.

Several farming pals across Ukraine and Russia are also independently telling me wheat fungicides are behind, hail has damaged some crops and the wet weather is causing wheat to grow very tall with large heads increasing the risk of falling over particularly as they missed PGR timings.

Clearly it’s not a catastrophe and there is a lot of good crop knocking about in the Black Sea region but it’s not all good news and we are still some time off the first harvest with many things that could erode yield and quality.

That black earth might be revered stuff but it doesn’t hold on to water for very long; a couple of weeks of hot dry weather with high transpiration rates and drought quickly becomes a possibility.

Those late or missed fertiliser applications will translate directly into reduced yield and late season fusarium which is always a problem will take full advantage of late fungicides.

To that end that is why our Black Sea Crop Tours have a place in gathering crop intelligence; remote reports, satellite data, expert opinion all have a place but I believe they should be complemented with an honest, muddy boots on the ground, objective and subjective assessment.

Later this month I will be kicking off the second Black Sea Crop Tour of the season specifically to look at the condition of recently planted corn, sunflower and soya but we will also be taking a look at the condition of cereals to see how good or bad things really are.

Drop me a line if you would like to sign up.

Ukraine Russia upbeat on crop condition

Indications and reports out of Ukraine and Russia is that crop condition is good, mild weather and rains have boosted the chances of producing if not a record crop then a close run thing.

Rusagrotrans, Russia's rail freighting holding company, have just increased their grain production forecast for Russia from 103mmt to 105mmt.

Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture go slightly further with their latest forecast pegged at 106mmt including 62.5mmt of wheat which would be the second highest crop on record.

Across the border in Ukraine they are putting an equally positive spin on harvest potential with the ministry reporting that 82% of the winter crop was in good and satisfactory (they actually go on to say 18% is in poor condition and there are 2% losses which adds up to more than 100% but you get the general idea).

True enough some of Ukraine’s wheat crop took a hit last autumn and winter with the number of hectares down around 13% on last year but what was left didn’t look too bad when we toured the region in April.

Not entirely clear what that shortfall will be made up with in Ukraine, probably corn, but spring plantings in both countries has taken advantage of good weather and are ahead on last year which further bodes well for good yields.

Not wanting to be the one that rains on this particular parade but I am receiving reports from several independent sources across Ukraine and Russia that rain has delayed fertiliser and fungicide applications on winter crops which in itself shouldn’t put too large a dent in yields but will still have an impact none the less.

A couple of farming contacts have quietly mentioned the crops are growing tall and they hope that a) they don’t start falling over and b) all that biomass translates into grain and not just straw.

I’m currently planning Crop Tours III and IV of the season which are due to kick off at the end of this month, primarily to look at post planting conditions of spring planted corn, sunflower and soya but we will undoubtedly be taking a view on the condition of wheat.

I’m not for a minute saying we aren’t going to see a large wheat crop particularly from Russia but it’s still a long way to harvest and lodged crops with increased disease pressure, perhaps with an added heatwave later in the season and a wet harvest might just conspire to keep records safe for another season.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Wet weather over central and southern portions of the region contrasted with favourably drier conditions in the north.

An area of high pressure brought sunny skies to much of north-western Russia, accelerating spring grain and summer crop planting following two months of above-normal precipitation.

In contrast, a stalled frontal boundary coupled with an influx of warm, humid air resulted in widespread showers and thunderstorms (15-85 mm) from Moldova, Ukraine, and southern Belarus into central and southern Russia.

The rain maintained good to excellent prospects for reproductive to filling winter wheat, though sowing of corn, sunflowers, and soybeans was slowed or halted by the locally heavy downpours.

Eastern FSU

Generally dry weather in the north contrasted with additional heavy rainfall in southern portions of the region.

Across northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia, rainfall was generally light (5 mm or less), promoting a rapid pace of spring wheat planting.

However, eastern and western most portions of the spring wheat belt tallied heavier showers (15-35 mm), slowing fieldwork but maintaining adequate to abundant soil moisture for crop establishment.

For the second consecutive week, freezes (-8 to -2°C) posed little - if any - threat to recently emerged spring wheat.

Farther south, heavy showers and thunderstorms (25-125 mm, locally more) over central and eastern Uzbekistan provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was in the reproductive to early grain-fill stages of development.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Additional widespread showers sustained favourable soil moisture supplies for vegetative to reproductive winter wheat, though the wet weather continued to slow fieldwork.

An upper air disturbance drifted across the region, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms (5-30 mm) over Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia.

The rainfall maintained adequate to abundant soil moisture for vegetative (north) to reproductive (south) winter wheat.

However, the unsettled conditions slowed or temporarily halted summer crop and spring wheat planting, particularly in southern and eastern portions of the region.

Temperatures averaged near normal in most major growing areas, with no untimely freezes or early-season heat reported.

Eastern FSU

Sunny, cool weather in the north contrasted with locally heavy showers in southern portions of the region.

Across the primary spring wheat belt (northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia), dry weather enabled a rapid sowing pace.

This week’s freezes (-6 to - 2°C) did not pose much - if any - threat to recently emerged spring wheat.

Farther south, moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-40 mm, locally more) over central and eastern Uzbekistan provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was likely progressing through the reproductive stages of development.

Virgin fails to deliver

A combination of work, laziness and domestic chores kept me of blog and twitter for a while but that pales into insignificance over my internet provider’s inability to provide me with internet.

It has been three weeks since I first contacted Virgin Media to report my broadband was on the blink, I won’t bore you with the details but the experience has been akin to repeatedly smashing my head against a brick wall while HAL, the computer from 2001 Space Odyssey, says “I’m sorry Mike, I can’t do that”.

I guess that’s what you get when you sign up to a company fronted by a failed Christmas tree farmer and drug advocate.

Turns out slow internet speeds, intermittent access, no mobile reception and excessive bills topped off with piss poor customer service is a democratic problem in the UK as everyone gets to experience it at some point. 

After living in the former Soviet Union for the last ten years, with its tip top, cheap, fast and reliable internet, I can tell the people of the UK, you are being taken for a ride, I'd complain if I was you, surely someone appointed an internet Czar, try him or her for starters.

Anyway, I now have a piece of string between two tin cans and a flock of messenger pigeons to hand so I can start catching up with the backlog of work; apologies if you’ve been waiting for a reply to an email, normal service is being resumed.

Congratulations to Leicester City FC for winning the English Premier League.