Russian Crop Tour about to hit the road

Setting off today or tomorrow to run a Crop Tour of Russia.

We will hit the road for a few days to assess the pre-harvest condition of corn, sunflower and soya across central Russia.

As in previous tours we will make a rapid appraisal of each crop with random stops to assess the yield potential of corn and soya – no idea how to assess sunflower yield potential other that count plants.

We will then produce a short report with our results, comments, observations and photographs.

If you would like to sign up and receive a copy of the report for £100 email me at agronomy.ukraine@yahoo.co.uk and I’ll invoice you and send you the report on completion.

I will also set up a Russian Crop Tour closed Twitter account on which we will publish photographs and comments during the tour itself.

This year we have covered 20,000km on the road looking at crops and plan on a few more tours before the season is out, as far as I am aware we are the only independent group providing this service so your previous and future support is greatly appreciated.

We have learnt a lot and have some great plans for 2016, watch this space.

Any question just drop me a line.

p.s We will be conducting a tour of Ukraine very soon.

Latest USDA weather update

Western FSU

Cool, showery weather maintained overall excellent prospects for reproductive summer crops, while winter wheat harvesting was able to proceed without significant delay in southern growing areas.

A strong storm system and its attendant cold front swept through the region early in the period, accompanied by widespread showers and below-normal temperatures (1-4°C below normal).

Rain totalled 10 to 60 mm (locally more) from central and northern Ukraine into central and northern Russia, maintaining good to excellent yield prospects for reproductive corn as well as heading to filling small grains.

However, the wet conditions hampered winter wheat dry down and harvesting, particularly in the more northerly growing areas.

In southern Russia, light to moderate showers (3-25 mm) maintained favourable conditions for reproductive corn and sunflowers, though there were sufficient breaks in the rainfall to promote winter wheat harvesting.

(nb. grain harvest area currently behind by around 30% on 2014)

Eastern FSU

Showery weather in western spring wheat areas contrasted with increasingly dry conditions farther east.

An approaching cold front triggered moderate to heavy showers (10-50 mm) from Russia’s Urals District into northwestern Kazakhstan, benefiting reproductive spring wheat.

Meanwhile, mostly sunny skies prevailed in the Siberia District, though subsoil moisture remained mostly favourable for reproductive spring wheat following timely early-July rainfall.

Ahead of the cold front, temperatures averaged up to 3°C above normal, with some heat stress possible in the western Siberia District (33-37°C).

Farther south, excessive heat (highs at or above 40°C, with weekly average temperatures above 30°C) likely caused stress to irrigated cotton in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Volga tour findings now available

Last Wednesday we set off on a planned four day trip through southern Russia to take a look at the Volga region crop condition.

Reports had been suggesting there was a problem with 160,000 hectares of crop dead in the heat and drought.

In the end it took us five days and we covered 3,000km taking in Kursk, Voronezh, Rostov, Stavropol and Volga before turning for home.

We found a few issues along the way that are not currently being reported, at least I've not read anything yet and we added to our wider understanding of the state of the Black Sea crop.

Since April we have driven 13,000km across the whole of Ukraine and western Russia, we have made 1,400 rapid field appraisals and  carried out 125 detailed fields assessments.

All in I reckon we have the best, completely independent view on Black Sea crop condition that there is and we are still planning more for this year.

But we need funding, if you would like to support us in developing this independent service and secure a copy of the latest 800 word report for £100 then send me an email or tweet.

Latest USDA weather update

Western FSU

Widespread, locally heavy showers lingered over key western and southern growing areas and ended the recent spell of excessive heat in eastern portions of the region.

A weak cool front generated 5 to 50 mm of rain (locally more) from Moldova and central Ukraine into western and southern Russia, further benefiting vegetative to reproductive corn and sunflowers but hampering winter wheat dry-down and harvesting.

However, drier weather by week’s end allowed winter crop harvesting to resume.

Meanwhile, lingering heat (35-38°C) stressed late developing winter wheat and vegetative summer crops in the southern Volga District, though widespread showers (10-50 mm) signalled the arrival of cooler air during the latter half of the period.

Eastern FSU

A return of showers to the region’s spring wheat areas contrasted with seasonably dry, hot conditions in southern cotton-growing areas.

Following last week’s warmth and dryness, widespread showers and thunderstorms (10-70 mm) boosted soil moisture for vegetative to reproductive spring wheat in northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia.

Showers (10-35 mm) also boosted soil moisture for spring grains in the Siberia District, though western-most portions of the District were mostly dry (less than 5 mm).

Across the southern tier, seasonably dry, hot weather promoted cotton development over Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, though daytime highs above 40°C heightened irrigation requirements.

Volga crop losses continue to increase

Reports from the Volga region are now suggesting drought and heat have killed 160,000ha of crop and the regional government has announced a state of emergency.

The official government announcement fails to mention which crops have been affected so later this week I'm driving there to investigate.

I will write up a report of our findings available to anyone who contributes to our overheads.

The Volga region grows about 6% of Russia’s wheat crop so any losses here could be significant and I doubt if the effect is limited to the oblast borders so we will go further south towards Stavropol and east in to Rostov to see what the conditions are like there.

As previously reported Rostov is already suggesting yields will be down 20% on last year due to the dry autumn and if that is compounded by dry hot weather it could go lower still.

Rostov grows about 17% of the countries wheat crop so that would be significant.

If you think this would be of use to you and are willing to contribute say £100 (or less or more depending on how you value the information) then drop me a line to discuss and I’ll arrange an invoice and sign you up.

Thanks to those who have already pledged their support so far.

agronomy.croptour@yahoo.co.uk

Volga yields downgraded?

With the Russian harvest under way reports are coming in from the southern Volga District of persistent heat, stressed wheat and summer crops and yield forecasts downgraded.

Let me know if you would like me to go and take a look and send you a brief report on my findings.

Its a 3,000km round trip so I would need some help with petrol money and a few nights accommodation.

Drop me a line and I'll send you a payment request for £100, then I'll hit the road to the Volga District, take pictures, some yield measurements, chat to a few locals and write up a brief report within a day of the trip.

It'll be cheaper and quicker than organising a visa, popping one of your guys on a plane, finding a translator, hiring a car and paying their expenses.

Latest USDA weather update

Western FSU

Widespread, locally heavy showers over key western and southern growing areas contrasted with persistent heat and dryness in eastern portions of the region. 

A stationary upper-air disturbance was the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms (10-60 mm, locally more than 100 mm) over Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, and much of western Russia, benefiting reproductive to filling winter wheat as well as vegetative to reproductive corn and sunflowers. 

Farther south, heavy downpours (30-100 mm, locally more) sustained adequate to abundant soil moisture for reproductive corn and sunflowers in central and southern portions of Russia’s Southern District, though the rain hampered winter wheat dry down and harvesting. 

In contrast, persistent heat (35-40°C) stressed late developing winter wheat and summer crops in the southern Volga District, where yield prospects for winter wheat, spring wheat, and summer crops are notably worse than last year.

Eastern FSU

Dry weather returned to the north, while seasonably dry, hot conditions prevailed in southern portions of the region. 

Following last week’s showers, sunny, warm weather (1- 3°C above normal) promoted the development of vegetative to reproductive spring wheat in northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia. 

Despite the warmth, there was little - if any - heat stress due to a surplus of soil moisture and daytime highs at or below 34°C. 

In the region’s southern tier, seasonably dry, hot weather promoted the development of recently

planted cotton across Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, while additional showers (5-30 mm) provided supplemental moisture to irrigated summer crops in the more easterly growing areas of Kyrgyzstan.

Crop Tour II report now available

After 4,000km, eight days, half a dozen ice-creams and a couple of chats with the local traffic cops the second full Ukraine Russia Crop Tour came to a successful end.

The 3,000 word report is now available for a reasonable price of £75, €100 or $115 and can be sent direct to your inbox or a link so you can download it yourself.

We can also provide you with the raw data that we collected should you wish to make your own calculations.

It covers an assessment of the condition of the cereal crops as harvest kicks off in the south and an assessment of the condition and yield assessment of the recently established corn, sunflower and soya crops.

As well as the report you will gain access to a Twitter account which is full of pictures and commentary posted during this tour and the previous tours.

As far as we know we are the only independent, in country, technically experienced tour that is taking place in Ukraine and Russia, we spend up to 16 hours a day on the road, we cover 500km each day, we walk right in to crops and not just peek in from the road, we dig holes and look at the soil and root development and we rarely change our shirts; we are the only Black Sea Crop Tour you need.

We are continuing to develop our Crop Tour service and will make it bigger and better, we are listening to our partners who are providing us with excellent feedback so we can supply the very best independent and objective information on the Black Sea crops throughout the year.

We are currently looking at setting up an annual subscription which will provide four crop tours at key points through the growing season with further additional mini-tours, regular written updates, opinion and commentary, pictures, videos and our availability to answer questions and have discussions.  

Essentially an annual fee to get your very own man-on-the-ground available all year round.

If you think this might be of interest to you then drop me a line and we can discuss how we can help you gain a better insight into what is taking place on the ground from an honest, independent and technically capable source.

Thanks to those who have already provided support in getting us this far.

The Crop Tour II bus gets back on the road

Busy week, so much going on, so little time to write about it, so I’ll be brief.

Russian Crop Tour II complete, 2,200km through Russia’s grain belt, hundreds of assessment’s taken, analysing results now, winter grains in variable condition, some good, some bad, weather is playing a major part, autumn weather still having a significant impact, spring plantings variable, some OK, some bad, a lot of quality issues related to planting, weather will play a major part, very little disease, some pests, weeds starting to get ahead.

Tomorrow we kick off Ukraine Crop Tour II, back in the car, driving and assessing from dawn to dusk, we will dig holes to look at the soil profile and moisture, we will count plants and take samples to determine yields of winter and spring cereals, we will measure and assess spring planted crops, we will photograph everything, we will record, we will form an opinion, we tweet everything we see, we will report, we will send that report to all the great and clever and attractive people who had the foresight to sign up and support the only independent in depth study of crop conditions in Ukraine and Russia.

There is still time to sign up to the tour and become clever and attractive and support us in our endeavour to inform and bring light to the darkness of confusion.

Right lads, stop crying and get back on the bus.

Latest Russian spring plantings

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reports that spring sowing stand at 46.7 million hectares or 90% of the forecast (46.8mha in 2014).

This includes 28.5mha of spring grain crops or 92% of the forecast (29.3mha in 2014).

Plantings seem to be catching up with last year apart from spring barley which if that is still going in now won’t amount to much.

Here are the numbers which are also in the chart with last years position for comparison which should expand if you click on it.

Spring wheat ​​12.2mha (93%); spring barley ​​7.6mha (93%); sunflower ​​6.6mha (100%); corn ​​2.7mha (95%); soybeans ​​1.7mha (81%).

Ukraine spring planting officially finished

Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture has declared the 2015 spring planting campaign finished.

With a total (spring and winter) crop standing at an impressive, considering the circumstances, 26.5mha which is almost equal to last year as previously suggested it would be on this blog.

But I bet if you had a quick drive around Ukraine you’d still see some tractors working in the field.

This is because although the Minister has said spring planting is finished (right about when he predicted it would be two weeks ago) and he really believes it to be the case, here’s how it actually works.

The Ministry of Agriculture shout at the regional head to speed up planting in his region and finish according to the plan.  The regional head calls the farm director in to his office and shouts at him while waving a piece of paper with a league table of plantings for all the farms in the region pointing out he is in the relegation zone or there about.  The farm director patiently points out that all machines are working at full capacity and planting will be finished within an agronomically acceptable planting window.  The regional head starts turning red in the face and shouts that this isn't good enough while spittle flies out of his mouth, they need to finish now, the Ministry has told him so, his job is on the line.  The farm director suggests that if he reports they have finished planting would that help.  The regional head is ecstatic with this idea, calms down immediately and beams from ear to ear.  After much handshaking and general bonhomie the farm director is bid farewell.  The regional director reports to the Ministry that planting is now finished.  The Minister of Agriculture declares planting to be complete.  Meanwhile Yuri is still planting the last of the corn.

True story.

Ukraine, Russia & other places mid-week review

Russia is to keep the ban on supply of food products imposed in August 2014 but as I anticipated will relax the list with some adjustments.

No radical changes are planned according Vice Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich yesterday.

But imagine for a minute if the reasons for the ban was removed then Russia would have no case in keeping them, then the WTO might step in.

Does this mean that Russia’s food production policy is now subject to decisions made in Washington and Brussels?

Russia spring grains plantings stand at 27.2mha or 88% of the plan which is down around 5% on last year.  Hidden in that figure is a drop of 1.7mha of spring wheat and barley.

Ukraine spring grains and pulses plantings stand at 6.7mha or 99% of the plan which is down around 10% on last year.

Kazakhstan spring plantings stand at 9.1mha or 62% of the plan, down a whopping 30% on last year and given the 100 odd day growing season that isn't going to improve now.

Tajikistan completed spring crops planting with 122kha which is up 15% on the plan which says so much for “the plan”, plus they planted an additional 189kha of industrial crops.

Ukraine’s agricultural input costs increased by 63% compared with last year.

Ukraine requires $2.7 billion to upgrade its grain handling and storage facilities according to Oleg Nivevsky, Agricultural Policy Advisor at the World Bank Group who went on to say the logistics costs in Ukraine are 40% of the export price compared with 10% in France and the US. 

I thought the US and EU directly and indirectly subsidised the cost of grain export, I wonder if they extend that courtesy to Ukraine?

The heatwave forecast for much of Russia came and went and probably did some yield damage along the way, high temperatures does odd things to plants particularly at sensitive ear development stages.

Cooler temperatures and rain over the weekend are holding off any problems for now although Moldova is reporting drought stress in developing spring crops.

Russia is resolutely sticking with a 100mmt harvest and possibly more, the feeling here on the ground is when harvest starts in the south next week yields will be above average and the Ministry, giddy with excitement will probably up that 100mmt only for yields to start dropping as harvest moves north.

Ukraine are all over the place with their harvest call estimates ranging from 55 to 62mmt with the last official ministry figure standing at a still optimistic 59mmt.

Quote of the week goes to Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture when he referred to the ministry as a three headed dragon which needs its heads chopping off then not allowed to become an octopus or words to that effect.

Crop Tour II kicks off this weekend with a brief 2,000km tour around Russia then on to Ukraine, drop me a line if you would like to sign up and let’s face it we are the only ones supplying such a service so why wouldn't you?

I'm off to pack a bag.

Latest USDA weather update

Western FSU

Increasing showers over western and southern portions of the region contrasted with hot, dry

conditions in eastern growing areas.

Moderate to heavy showers (10-95 mm) associated with a slow-moving storm system developed from Ukraine and Belarus into north-western Russia, boosting soil moisture for heading winter grains as well as emerging spring grains, corn, and sunflowers.

However, rain bypassed areas from Moldova northward through-west-central Ukraine, enabling fieldwork but reducing topsoil moisture for summer crops.

In southern Russia, increasing rainfall (10-30 mm) eased concerns over short-term dryness and improved prospects for flowering to filling winter wheat.

Although this week’s rain missed the Krasnodar Oblast in the southwestern corner of the Southern District, heavy showers and thunderstorms (25-50 mm) developed over this key wheat area at the end of the period (May 31 – June 1).

Meanwhile, sunny skies and daytime temperatures in the lower to middle 30s (degrees C) increased stress on filling winter crops from the southern Central District into the southern Volga District, though the greatest heat (34- 36°C) was generally outside of major winter wheat areas.

Eastern FSU

A much-needed break from recent heavy rain arrived in central and western spring wheat areas.

A very wet May concluded with a welcomed respite in northern Kazakhstan and the southern Urals District in Russia, with rainfall during the monitoring period generally totalling less than 5 mm.

Producers in these locales have struggled to plant spring wheat, as preliminary estimates for May indicated rainfall totalled 200 to 350 percent of normal for the month.

In contrast, 10 to 50 mm of rain (locally more) improved soil moisture for spring wheat establishment in the Siberia District, particularly in southern growing areas (Altai Krai Oblast).

Meanwhile, mostly sunny skies promoted the development of recently-planted cotton across Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, though variable light to moderate showers (1-15 mm) reduced irrigation requirements.

Latest USDA weather update

Western FSU

Following recent rain, sunny skies and near to above normal temperatures encouraged winter and summer crop development. 

In Ukraine, where last week’s rain alleviated dryness concerns in the north, dry, warm weather (up to 4°C above normal) facilitated the development of vegetative to heading winter wheat as well as emerging corn and sunflowers. 

Dry weather in central and southern Russia also favoured vegetative to reproductive winter crops, though short term dryness had begun to develop in south western portions of Russia’s Southern District (Krasnodar Oblast). 

However, wheat prospects remained favourable in the key southern winter wheat areas due to near to above normal seasonal rainfall and the return of showers (per satellite) on May 26. 

In Moldova, dry weather accelerated corn and spring grain planting, while showery conditions in Belarus and northern Russia maintained favourable moisture for spring grains and summer crops.

Eastern FSU

Wet weather slowed spring wheat sowing in the north but maintained favourable supplemental moisture supplies for irrigated crops in the south.

A slow-moving storm system generated 15 to 50 mm of rain across most key growing areas of northern Kazakhstan and south-central Russia, hampering spring wheat planting efforts for much of the week. 

Spring wheat is typically planted during May, and crop areas in the southern Urals District and neighbouring portions of northern Kazakhstan have received 200 to 400 percent of normal rainfall over the past 30 days (as of May 24). 

However, drier weather at the end of the week allowed producers to resume fieldwork, particularly in the Siberia District where soils are less saturated. 

Meanwhile, variable but widespread showers (2-40 mm) over southern portions of the region provided supplemental moisture for recently-planted cotton as well as reproductive to filling winter grains.

Ukraine & Russia mid-week review

Russia and Ukraine spring plantings are in the closing stages and we are starting to see the final numbers.

In Russia spring wheat and barley hectares are down 13% and 15% on the same point last year with a combined shortfall of 2.1mha.  

Wet weather has been the official reason for the shortfall but state induced low prices and another wheat export tax already being talked about days after the previous export tax was lifted won’t have helped.

Sunflower plantings are down 11% which is 600,000ha on last year so I would anticipate that getting closer over the next five days.

Corn is up 4% on last year but a drop in average yield of only 200kg/ha would cancel that out so I wouldn't consider it to be all that significant.

Soya is up around 8% but as a low yielding crop that would only equate to an additional 134,000mt on a national yield of around 1.5mmt and equally could be wiped out with a drop in average yield of 100kg/ha or so.

Potatoes and vegetables plantings are up 40% on last year as farmers capitalise on the food embargo which, following a clear heads up from the new Minister of Agriculture this week, won’t be going away any time soon.

Over in Ukraine corn plantings are down 15% with 600,000ha behind last year which I don’t see catching up much in the next week because farmers opted to use more home grown varieties in a bid to conserve cash and these will not have the low days to maturity characteristics needed this late on.

If these proportions stay broadly the same through to the end of plantings then the crop will need to produce an additional average yield of 700kg/ha plus to fill the shortfall on last year; not something that is at all likely to happen as along with using domestic seed to save costs farmers have been cutting fertiliser rates.

I would give you some numbers on Ukraine’s cereal crops but the Ministry hasn't been clear on that of late but the Minister of Agriculture is to give a press conference on spring plantings tomorrow lunchtime so hopefully we will have a better picture by then.

Still in Ukraine and in an effort to stimulate the livestock sector the government is considering plans to reimburse farmers 50% of the cost of new animals up to 12,000 UAH (550 USD) per head as well as the costs of construction and reconstruction of livestock facilities.  It was also suggested that they will commission 190 livestock farms including 100 dairy farms, 50 pig farms and 20 poultry farms during 2015-16.  It will be interesting to see where the funding comes from.

Back in Russia and the Sugar Producers' Union said that up to 90,000ha of beet crop could be damaged by strong winds in the Central Federal District which has just been confirmed by a contact of mine who said the damage is substantial in his area and has affected sunflower too.

We used to plant barley or straw between the rows to stop windblow, perhaps I should tell them.

I received reports this week that “dryland wheat in southern Russia was starting to suffer from a cumulative lack of rain" and recent high temperatures and “rain is sorely needed in central Russia” particularly where they have finished plantings.

Following a quick trip out of the office yesterday I also confirmed that wheat in Kursk is starting to show signs of drought (pictured) although as I write the skies have clouded over and the air is heavy with thunder which is about right as I'm off to a barbecue tonight.

Crimea mentioned that irrigated land is down to 13,000ha from 140,000ha in 2013 as no alternative water sources have been provided by authorities after Ukraine closed off the North Crimea Canal following the Russian annexation in 2014.

Still in Crimea and the regional head got his excuse in early and saying they need 3bn RUB state support to buy 700 machines for planting and harvesting to realise a successful harvest.  I assume he realises Crimea will start harvest in a couple of weeks’ time so he needs to get his skates on to secure funding, place an order, take delivery and assemble a fleet of combines.

Also getting his excuse in early is Rostov's Minister of Agriculture who announced today that 2015 harvest will be 20% down on last year (down from 9.5mmt to 7.7mmt) mentioning a dry autumn and a lack of bank credit as the main problem.

And finally, only days after lifting its export tax on wheat Russia is suggesting it might tax wheat exports again in order to protect livestock farmers from rising feed costs but fail to mention how they will protect grain farmers from low prices.

A quick reminder that we are taking subscriptions for the next Crop Tour which is now scheduled for second week of June and that I will be in touch with those who have expressed an interest once I can get my IT systems functioning properly.

Right, I'm off to throw a shrimp on the barbie.

Shearly there's been a mistake?

One of our neighbours has a rag tag bunch of sheep which just seem to wander around the village.

Apart from the ones in the picture that is which he tethers to a stake outside the front of his house for some reason.

In this hot weather I started feeling for them and asked if he had some shears so we could get their fleeces off.

Turns out he does and he’s got 79 sheep, didn't look to be that many when I've seen them wandering about, may be he’s been hiding a few.

What have I got myself into, it must be coming up to ten years since I've sheared a sheep and I haven’t seen these shears yet.

Latest Ukraine spring sowing update

As of yesterday Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture reported that spring cereals and legumes plantings stand at 6.6mha or 95%.

At the same point last year farmers had planted a million hectares more which will start to put pressure on the Minister of Agricultures assessment that 2015 will be another bumper year now the planting season is coming to a close.

Also don’t forget that inputs have been reduced so what is growing will in all reality likely yield less than last year.  Plus it won’t be long before we start hearing the “D” word* as we move in to the drier summer months.

Anyway for the record the Ministry are reporting corn at 4.1mha or 93% (4.7mha in 2014); sunflowers 4.5mha or 98% (4.4mha in 2014); soya 1.9mha or 97% (1.6mha in 2014); millet 80kha or 82% (88kha in 2014); rice 11.2kha or 98% (10kha in 2014) and not forgetting our ould friend, buckwheat 106kha or 83% (128kha in 2014).

To summarise some key points, sunflowers plantings are about the same as last year, soya is up 16% while corn is down 15%.

If you look at corn output over the last ten years it spikes noticeably during the Yanukovych years as his government pushed corn production to generate cash dollars to spend on old ladies pensions or possibly private zoo’s and gold loaves.

Perhaps we are just seeing a realignment back to where Ukraine’s corn output should be.

*Hint, begins with d ends in rought

Latest Russian spring sowing update

According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture spring sowing currently stand at 36.9mha or 71% of the plan (39.4mha in 2014).

They then confuse the picture, at least for me they do by saying this includes 22.1mha of spring grains. 

I have tried every combination of what may or may not be included as a spring and I can’t get it to balance with 22.1mha, if anyone can shed any light on what I’m doing wrong I’d be happy to hear it.

I don’t have previous seasons numbers to hand but 71% complete in the last week of May seems low and considering it’s now hot and dry what is going in now will have an increasingly hard time.

Talking of hot, winter cereals are coming in to ear and flowering which is starting to look like it will coincide with these very high daytime temperatures we are getting at the moment.  High temperatures at flowering will, amongst other negative effects, reduce the number of grain per ear and thus the overall yield.

In my experience heat in the FSU has a greater negative impact on yields than the cold but we persist in our view that Russia is in a state of deep freeze and winter kill is a big issue.

It’s getting so warm now I have had to start running in the mornings to avoid the heat of the day.

For the record and for what they are worth here are the Ministry of Agricultures latest spring sowings by region and crop.

Crimea (contentious) 207kha (97%); Southern 5.3mha (90%); North Caucasus 1.5mha (87%); Central 8.1mha (93%); Volga 11.9mha (76%); North-West 292kha (62%); Siberia7.5mha (57%); Far East 722kha (43%); Urals 1.4mha (32%).

Spring wheat 8.2mha or 63% (9.3mha in 2014); spring barley 6.5mha or 79% (7.5mha in 2014); corn 2.5mha or 88% (2.4mha ion 2014); sunflower 5.6mha or 84% (6.2mha in 2014); soybeans 1.2mha or 59% (1.1mha in 2014); spring oilseed rape 654.8kha or 71% (755.5kha in 2014).; rice 170.3kha or 80% (164.7kha in 2014); flax 37.2kha or 70% (39kha in 2014); sugar beet 993kha 101% (906kha in 2014); potatoes 304.9kha or 81% (195.7kha in 2014); vegetables 142kha or 77% (83.7kha in 2014).

To summarise that little lot; spring cereals, spring oilseed rape and sunflowers are down 11-15% on last year, corn and soya are up slightly at 4% and 8% respectively but the stand out figures for me at this stage are potatoes and vegetables up 40%.

See yesterday’s blog.

Will Russia continue to dig for victory?

Russia’s self-imposed food embargo doesn't look like it will be lifted any time soon.

The embargo imposed last August in response to EU, US and some other countries sanctions over Russia’s role in Crimea and eastern Ukraine was initially set for twelve months.

Following comments last week by Russia's new Minister of Agriculture it doesn't sound like they're going to lift it at all.

Initially western media suggested supermarket shelves emptied as retailers struggled to find alternative supply's hinting that the embargo was hitting hard.

That may have been the case towards the end of last year although I doubt it but because I wasn't here so I can't say for certain.  It’s definitely not the situation now as supermarkets are full of food and shoppers.

Furthermore no one I meet mentions sanctions or embargo's or a lack of their favourite food item so it doesn't appear to be harming Putin's popularity ratings.

They do mention that the price of food and just about everything else has gone up but seem resigned to that in the same way we all are by giving a shrug of the shoulders and saying “what can I do about it?”

I am reading reports that production in Russia has increased in response to the embargo but I'm not entirely convinced that is the case as yet.

For example one recent report said pig output was up 8% on the same period last year in response to the embargo.

The thing is, if Yuri the pig farmer had dutifully followed the call to up production and immediately inseminated every available sow he could find, the resulting off spring would only be reaching slaughter weight now.

Likewise beef animals produced to fill the gap would only be a month old by now and you can forget about more milk for at least another couple of years.

It’s a similar situation in fruit and veg; increasing apple production requires planting new orchards which I assume take several years to come on line.

Vegetables are a more likely candidate but I doubt much was done when the embargo's were first imposed last summer because there wouldn't have been time to grow much before winter.

I guess more vegetables may have been planted this spring but I doubt much extra investment in infrastructure has been made over what was already in the pipeline.

Which is why I believe Putin will be unlikely to lift the embargo any time soon.

He has asked the nation to do its patriotic duty, grow more food and become self-sufficient which is not a bad idea but investors will have been seeking assurances over this last year that if they do step up to the plate he won’t go changing the goalposts again.

At this time every indication is Russia will retain the embargo come August and use it as an opportunity to talk up food production, whether they actually do increase production is another matter.

I expect we will see some relaxation on items that they will struggle supply such as dairy and also as a political tool to create discord amongst the sanction nations. but the basic embargo looks like it's here to stay.

I wonder what the WTO have to say about it all?

Rain stops play in Kazakhstan

Heavy rains in Kazakhstan have stopped the spring planting campaign in almost all oblasts of the country according to Auezkhan Darinov, Chairman of the Union of Farmers of Kazakhstan.

Mr Darinov said that in general spring planting should be completed by 1 June with some regions going on to 5 June but it is too early to say that the planting campaign is at risk of failure.

But he conceded that if it keeps raining for another three or four days then that risk will appear.  According to forecasts it’s expected to rain for the next three or four days so it appears there is a risk.

To date Ministry figures say farmers have planted 1.2mha (8.8%) of spring grains as opposed to 1.8mha (12.6%) on the same date last year.

If these numbers are accurate - I can’t currently access the Ministry website to confirm - this would put a big dent in Kazakhstan’s grain output this year.

Although it is worth reminding ourselves that it’s not the planting date that’s important it’s the emergence date.

Planting late into warm moist soils is often the same as planting early in to dry soils so don’t write them off just yet.

Why Ukraine and Russia official crop yield forecast might be optimistic

Around this time of year I receive requests to put my assessment on what I think crops in Ukraine and Russia will do.

I usually resist putting a yield figure on it as generally it would be a guess based on what other people have already said.

That is until we initiated Crop Tour.

Now that we are travelling around the grain belt looking at crops, walking fields, measuring and assessing plants we are starting to feel a little more confident that we could put a yield figure forward based on more than just a feeling.

Over the course of the last six weeks we have officially covered 5,800km in pursuit of Crop Tour, unofficially it’s probably nearer 8,000km as we assess crops going about our daily business.

That’s one of the pleasures of being a farmer, every journey is spent watching fields and farming systems role past the window and one of the reasons I prefer trains over planes.

I still have a bit more development to do before I stick my neck out and make a call on crop yield but before I do here's a review what’s been said over the last few weeks.

Ukraine are saying sowing and crop yield projections are normal and good with plantings forecast to be around the same as last year at 26mha and 90% of winter crops in good to satisfactory condition.

They are also saying everyone has sufficient seed, sprays and diesel and fertiliser is down only 8% on last year.

The USDA recently pegged Ukraine’s total 2015 yield at 55.3mmt which immediately received a rebuttal from the Minister of Agriculture Oleksiy Pavlenko who said it would exceed 55mmt adding that the Ministry will announce its own more accurate forecast after completion of the spring crop planting works, in the last week of May the first week of June.

Which he means that he doesn't know for sure, he hopes it will be more, his guys are telling him it will be, he’ll get back to you on that one.

I don’t understand why he contest it?  The more negative news about crops in general the more the market will react with favourable prices and if come harvest you do have more to sell well that’s just tickety-boo.

Anyway, my assessment is that all is not entirely tickety-boo in Ukraine’s garden.  I don’t buy the 90% is good line, we assessed 60% to be fair to good and while we might be a little harsh in our marking I don’t believe we are 30 points adrift.

What we saw was a lot of thin crops which will have bulked out in the recent warm wet weather but they are still thin crops; yield is a function of the number of ears in a given area and spring rains don't increase the number of ears.

I also don’t buy the fertiliser 8% story either.  During our investigations we kept hearing numbers of 30% and while it’s not cut and dried, knowing that fertiliser is THE single biggest crop cost then shortage of finance means it will be hit the most.

You can’t cut seed or you don’t have a crop, Ukraine’s pesticide usage is already low so there’s not much to trim there, you need a minimum of diesel to plant and harvest, what else is there to cut but fertiliser?

Across the border in Russia we hear a similar rose tinted story from the new Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev sticking with a resolute 100mmt grain harvest.

He is saying that only the Volga, Siberian, and Ural Federal Districts showed some delays in plantings due to weather and he believes that agrarians will manage to plant spring crops in optimum terms. 

They’ll need to shake a leg then as each day delayed planting equates to a drop in yield and it will not be in optimum terms.  Not to mention the imminent yield sapping hot dry weather heading to southern Russia from Spain.

Over the last few weeks in addition to the Russian Ministry 100mmt figure I have heard 97mmt, 95mmt and a low from the USDA of 92mmt.

Whatever it turns out to be I don’t know anyone who thinks it will be 100mmt.

To finish off, Elizaveta Malyshko from UkrAgroConsult recently wrote that over the last 20 years Ukraine has faced severe crisis several times, but never (even in early '90s) was it followed by sharp reduction of grain acreage.

Now that's interesting.

What the buckwheat?

I probably have better things to do than writing about Ukraine’s buckwheat crop but I find it oddly fascinating.

To recap, a couple of weeks back Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture held a conference call with all his regional Heads of Administration and instructed them to instruct farmers to plant an additional 50,000ha of the crop.

When that failed he went on to instruct the PJSC Agrarian Fund to forward buy buckwheat in an attempt stimulate farmers to plant more crop.

On the face of it this seems to have worked as plantings have increased from 118kha to 125kha with one dutiful comrade reporting he plans to sow a further 16.7kha before the season is out.

Actually what probably happened is the regional Heads shouted and threatened farmers into getting their drills out again.

Yesterday the Ministry announced on its website plans to initiate a state support programme to increase the area of buckwheat plantings which, in their words, every year due to low profitability, declines.

Wouldn't it be better to let it decline which would then increase the price which would then stimulate farmers in to planting more and presumably find some sort of market balance or am I oversimplifying farming?

Over the last couple of weeks buckwheat has featured prominently on the agenda of the Minister of Agriculture who seems to have taken a personal interest in micro-managing the crop.

I would have thought that given the current situation in Ukraine he would have other priorities over planting buckwheat which only seems to be a problem in the minds of the Ministry who keep telling everyone it’s a problem.

No doubt the saga will continue.

Latest USDA weather update

Western FSU

Additional, well-placed rainfall further eased dryness concerns in central growing areas and boosted soil moisture in the south.

Lingering early-spring dryness in northern Ukraine was alleviated by 10 to 40 mm of rain, benefiting recently-planted corn as well as vegetative winter wheat.

Meanwhile, widespread showers and thunderstorms (10-25 mm, locally more) further improved soil moisture for winter and spring grains as well as emerging summer crops over much of western Russia.

However, favourably drier weather along the Black Sea Coast facilitated fieldwork and winter crop development; southern wheat areas have benefited from near- to above-normal precipitation since crops were planted in autumn.

Temperatures averaged near normal, though slightly warmer conditions (1-3°C above normal) in southern Ukraine contrasted with readings up to 2°C below normal in Belarus.

Eastern FSU

Drier weather promoted fieldwork in central and eastern spring wheat areas, while warm, showery conditions promoted winter wheat and cotton development in the south.

Mostly sunny skies accelerated spring wheat planting and emergence from northcentral Kazakhstan and south-central Russia eastward into the Siberia District.

However, moderate to heavy showers (10-45 mm) continued to hamper sowing in northwestern Kazakhstan and southwestern portions of the Urals District.

Across southern crop areas, above-normal temperatures (3-6°C above normal) and rainfall (10-30 mm) accelerated winter wheat toward maturity and promoted the development of recently-planted cotton over Uzbekistan and neighbouring growing areas.

Summer 2015 Ukraine and Russia Crop Tour

Once again we are looking for sponsorship to fund the next Ukraine and Russia Crop Tour.

This time we will be looking at the post-planting condition of the major spring crops of corn (grain maize), sunflower and soya and the pre-harvest condition of winter and spring grains and oilseed rape.

The Crop Tour is planned for the beginning of June and like our previous April Crop Tour we will cover 4 to 5,000km through Ukraine and Russia over a ten day period.

The aim is to achieve a clear, objective picture of the condition of the spring crops and the yield potential of the winter grains just prior to harvest.

We will use a number of techniques to gain a clear understanding of crop condition including rapid appraisals, samples of key yield indicators, farm visits and interviews with current farm mangers and agronomists.

Contributors to the Crop Tour will receive an emailed end of tour report summarising all the information recorded including comments, opinion and observation with photographs and videos.

We will operate a dedicated member only Twitter account during the Crop Tour that will provide an ongoing commentary and dialogue for the duration.

We are asking a contribution of £75, €100 or $115 towards our costs.

Please register your interest or send any questions to me at agronomy.croptour@yahoo.co.uk 

Thanks.

Crop Tour II

Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture reacts to yesterday’s USDA forecast of a 55mmt harvest saying they will exceed it.

He went on to say that the Ministry will announce its own more accurate forecast after completion of the spring crops plantings in the last week of May - the first week of June.

Which coincidentally is exactly when I am planning my Crop Tour of Ukraine (and Russia) to be able to announce my comments on the condition of the post-emergent spring planted crops and the pre-harvest condition of the winter crops.

If you would like to follow the tour, receive updates and photographs during the tour, receive a copy of the tour report, be able to ask questions or just follow for fun then send me an email/twitter DM and I’ll sign you up.

The cost for this independent, boots on the ground practical assessment is only £75 or €100 or $115 or pro-rata any other currency.

More buckwheat please

A week ago Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Yaroslav Krasnopolskiy, declared spring planting would be all over in the next 7-10 days.

A week later and the Ministry of Agriculture, Oleksiy Pavlenko, said he expected a successfully completion of the planting campaign in two weeks.

What the Deputy Minister failed to take in to account is that whatever amount of time someone in Ukraine tells you anything will take, you need to double it, add a bit then wait five more minutes.

The first Minister also reported 83% plantings are complete but registered some unwillingness amongst farmers to plant extra buckwheat.

You may recall that ten days ago he instructed his Heads of Administrations to instruct farmers to plant an additional 50,000ha of the crop to avoid shortages and panic buying later in the year – I presume by acknowledging the unwillingness of cash strapped farmers to man the planters this hasn't happened.

Which in my mind at least is indicative of a broader attempt to manage information on food availability and security but does beg the question why address the buckwheat issue so publicly?

In the grand scheme of things an extra 50,000ha of buckwheat isn't really all that and trying to resolve it at Ministerial level when the country is bankrupt seems a bit like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.

Anyway, to stimulate farmers to plant more buckwheat the PJSC Agrarian Fund has now begun to purchase forward contracts, which is probably what should have been done ten days ago rather than issuing declarations.

Ukraine mainly reigns in Spain

Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture Oleksiy Pavlenko has had a busy week in Spain.

On Tuesday he gave a presentation to the food security forum in Barcelona on increasing the supply of agricultural products to Mediterranean countries pointing out that in 2014, 64% of Ukraine’s agricultural turnover was with EU countries (I need to check that).

He then went on to meet the Deputy Director General of the FAO, Laurent Thomas and discussed Ukraine’s role in providing food security to the Mediterranean region.

He also met the Vice President of the World Bank, Hafez Ganem and they agreed that agriculture plays a significant role in ensuring social stability in the Mediterranean while Pavlenko stressed the importance of collaborative joint investment projects with the World Bank.

Then on Wednesday he met EBRD Vice President of Policy and Partnership, Philippe Le Uerom and stressed that the development of a dynamic, competitive and inclusive agricultural sector is the key to food security in the world and the Mediterranean region in particular.

It might not seem like it at the moment, particularly if your knowledge of Ukraine is gleaned from the news on the telly, but Ukraine is gearing up to be a powerful agricultural producer and exporter.

Ministry of Agriculture or Crop Tour?

Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture are reporting that everything is essentially all good on the farming front this season.

The latest official statements place 88% of winter grains in good and satisfactory condition with 11.6% in poor condition and 0.5% dead.

Our recent Crop Tour of Ukraine called a slightly different assessment with 62% good and satisfactory, 34% poor and 5% very poor.

There are a couple of points to note here, first off, we might not be using the same criteria during our assessments; terms like poor, good and satisfactory are subjective unless supported by some sort of explanation.

I'm sure the Ministry have their detailed assessment criteria that allows all the Ukraine agronomists to calibrate their scores, I know we have.

We base our score on a number of criteria that together will determine the likely yield potential at the time of the assessment against the national average. 

Very poor will produce no yield or well below the national average; poor is likely to yield slightly below or at the national average; satisfactory likely to yield at national average; good likely to yield above the national average; very good will yield above the national average.

(Drop me a line if you would like a full copy of the assessment criteria.)

I have no idea how many people take crop scores for the Ministry, my understanding is they are required to be sent in from each registered holding which if that is the case means the number of people involved will run into the thousands.  

Each with their own slightly different interpretation of what is good, bad or ugly.  Plus no one likes to report bad news particularly if it is about themselves.

In Ukraine we took 289 individual assessments and 40 detailed appraisals which might not sound a lot but it was spread over an indicative area covering 2,300km and the assessment was carried out by two people rather than thousands.

I'm not saying we got it exactly spot on and the Ministry didn't but I feel more comfortable with our findings knowing how they are produced than broad statements issued from the Ministry.

We will continue to learn, develop, refine and improve our sampling strategy and at all times maintain our objectivity and independence.

Our second Crop Tour of 2015 to look at corn, sunflower and soya condition post planting is officially up and running and scheduled for the end of the month.

If you would like to subscribe and support our project drop me a line and I'll send you details.

More to follow soon.

agronomy.croptour @ yahoo.co.uk

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Additional showers further eased dryness concerns in central growing areas and maintained favourable soil moisture in the south.

The rain, which fell both at the beginning and end of the period, totalled 2 to 25 mm (locally more) over most of the region’s primary growing areas.

In the south, the moisture sustained favourable prospects for vegetative winter wheat and recently-planted summer crops.

Farther north, the rainfall further reduced lingering long-term (since September 1) precipitation deficits from northern Ukraine into west-central Russia; the recent, persistent wet weather in these northern locales has continued to improve prospects for winter wheat, spring grains, and summer crops.

However, a break from the showery weather during the middle of the week facilitated corn and sunflower planting.

Temperatures averaged up to 6°C above normal, accelerating crop development after last week’s chilly conditions.

Latest USDA weather update for eastern FSU

Drier weather promoted spring grain planting in the north, while locally heavy showers and cooler temperatures in the south eased heat stress on winter wheat.

A passing cold front triggered light to moderate showers (2-25 mm) over northern Kazakhstan and central Russia, slowing early spring wheat planting efforts.

However, sunny skies during the latter half of the period allowed producers to resume field preparations and spring wheat sowing operations.

Farther south, moderate to heavy showers (10-50 mm) in eastern Uzbekistan and neighbouring environs hampered late cotton planting but eased stress on heading to flowering winter wheat caused by last week’s heat.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Additional rainfall further eased dryness concerns in central growing areas and maintained favourable soil moisture in the south.

An early-week storm system and its attendant cold front produced moderate to heavy rain and wet snow (5-50 mm liquid equivalent) over most of the region’s major crop areas.

The moisture reduced lingering long-term precipitation deficits from northern Ukraine into west-central Russia, where a dry start to the spring coupled with autumn drought had depleted soil moisture and raised concerns over conditions for winter wheat.

In light of the recent wet weather in these locales, prospects for winter wheat, spring grains, and summer crops have improved considerably over the past several weeks.

In major winter wheat areas of southern Russia, 15 to 25 mm of rain (locally more) sustained favourable soil moisture as the crop approaches the heading stage of development.

However, cooler weather (2-5°C below normal) slowed crop growth rates, though night-time readings in the more advanced southern growing areas (-2 to 0°C) were above the threshold for freeze damage to wheat.

Despite being overall favourable for crop prospects, the wet conditions in Russia and Ukraine slowed corn and sunflower planting until the end of the period, when sunny skies allowed fieldwork to resume.

Latest USDA weather update for eastern FSU

Unsettled weather hampered early spring wheat planting but sustained abundant soil moisture for crop emergence.

With the region’s primary spring wheat areas of northern Kazakhstan and south-central Russia devoid of snow cover, producers will be able to commence spring wheat sowing once drier weather arrives.

However, widespread showers (5-25 mm) slowed early planting efforts, though drier conditions by week’s end likely enabled some fieldwork operations in the spring wheat belt.

Farther south, dry, hot conditions (30-36°C) in Uzbekistan and neighbouring environs accelerated cotton planting but increased stress on heading to flowering winter wheat.

Latest USDA weather update for eastern FSU

Snow was slow to melt in the north, while locally heavy rain maintained favourable soil moisture in the south.

A cold start to the month was followed by notably warmer weather by the end of March, though snow remained over northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of Russia into early April.

Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions (locally more than 200 percent of normal) in southern growing areas hampered cotton planting but maintained favourable prospects for reproductive to filling winter wheat, particularly in Uzbekistan.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

In March, mild, mostly dry weather eased winter crops out of dormancy in southern Russia and accelerated spring grain planting farther north.

Soil moisture remained limited for spring growth in the driest locales of central Russia, though showers returned to southern and western Russia by month’s end.

In contrast, abundant rain boosted soil moisture for dormant to vegetative winter grains and oilseeds in Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus.

Ukraine Russia Crop Tour findings

At the end of March and beginning of April the Crop Tour team travelled 4,893km across Ukraine and Russia.

The aim was to objectively record the condition and yield potential of overwintered crops as spring growth recommenced.

The route took in the north, western and central regions of Ukraine and central, southern and western regions of western Russia.

We used a rapid crop appraisal technique to make over 500 crop assessments and carried out 60 detailed in field studies to measure key yield indicators. 

In addition the team took photographs and video which was made available during the tour and is now available on line. 

The team held discussions with farmers and industry personnel and collected anecdotal evidence on crop and soil conditions and counselled opinion on the financial and political situation relevant to agri-businesses in Ukraine and Russia.

The tour identified variations across Ukraine and Russia with some regions scoring below satisfactory because of thin crops with small plants and higher than average levels of cold damage.

Other regions visited were satisfactory in good condition and showed no problems post winter.

Wheat had reached early stem extension and farmers had started applying nitrogen fertiliser. 

Ukraine soils had been dry but late snows and rains had provided moisture for early season growth and no farmers expressed concern for soil moisture going in to April.

In Russia late snows and rain had improved soil moisture conditions in central regions but there were still concerns over dry soils further south.

Finance from banks had stopped, credit from suppliers was unavailable, they are requesting payment on delivery. 

Agri-businesses and farmers say they are trying to manage resources by replacing higher cost crops such as corn and soya with lower cost alternatives such as spring cereals, using cheaper domestic seeds and generic chemicals, reducing nitrogen fertiliser rates and dropping out base fertiliser altogether. 

The report and data are now available at £75/€100/$115, email me your preferred currency and I will send you a copy on receipt.

The Spring 2015 Ukraine Russia Crop Tour report is out.

Back in February I tentatively put out feelers to see if there was sufficient interest to warrant a ten day, four thousand kilometre tour around Ukraine and Russia to take in the post winter crop condition.

There was so we did.

In the end it took twelve days and we travelled five thousand kilometres.

We made over 500 separate rapid crop appraisals and 60 detailed in field studies, paid two bribes, lost one wheel, attended one international football friendly and visited one Buddhist temple.

We also raised over $932 for an orphanage in Volgograd thanks to the generous donations of my Twitter followers, thank you.

The report has been sent out to all subscribers (email me if you think I've missed you) and is now providing them with a unique, in depth and up to date view on crops in Ukraine and Russia.

I might be wrong but I'm not aware of anyone else who has seen as much crop as we have in the last two weeks or who has a better perspective on the state of Ukraine’s and Russia’s potential for this season.

What we did identify is some big differences in the crop condition between regions.

The report and the data (if you want to do some analysis yourself) are available to purchase at a reasonable £75/€100/$115.

If you would like a copy, email me your preferred currency and I’ll do the rest.