Russia and
Ukraine spring plantings are in the closing stages and we are starting to see the
final numbers.
In Russia spring
wheat and barley hectares are down 13% and 15% on the same point last year with
a combined shortfall of 2.1mha.
Wet weather
has been the official reason for the shortfall but state induced low prices and
another wheat export tax already being talked about days after the previous
export tax was lifted won’t have helped.
Sunflower plantings
are down 11% which is 600,000ha on last year so I would anticipate that getting
closer over the next five days.
Corn is up 4% on
last year but a drop in average yield of only 200kg/ha would cancel that out so
I wouldn't consider it to be all that significant.
Soya is up around 8%
but as a low yielding crop that would only equate to an additional 134,000mt on
a national yield of around 1.5mmt and equally could be wiped out with a drop in
average yield of 100kg/ha or so.
Potatoes and
vegetables plantings are up 40% on last year as farmers capitalise on the food
embargo which, following a clear heads up from the new Minister of Agriculture
this week, won’t be going away any time soon.
Over in Ukraine corn
plantings are down 15% with 600,000ha behind last year which I don’t see catching
up much in the next week because farmers opted to use more home grown varieties
in a bid to conserve cash and these will not have the low days to maturity characteristics
needed this late on.
If these proportions
stay broadly the same through to the end of plantings then the crop will need
to produce an additional average yield of 700kg/ha plus to fill the shortfall
on last year; not something that is at all likely to happen as along with using
domestic seed to save costs farmers have been cutting fertiliser rates.
I would give you
some numbers on Ukraine’s cereal crops but the Ministry hasn't been clear on
that of late but the Minister of Agriculture is to give a press conference on spring
plantings tomorrow lunchtime so hopefully we will have a better picture by
then.
Still in Ukraine and
in an effort to stimulate the livestock sector the government is considering
plans to reimburse farmers 50% of the cost of new animals up to 12,000 UAH (550
USD) per head as well as the costs of construction and reconstruction of
livestock facilities. It was also
suggested that they will commission 190 livestock farms including 100 dairy
farms, 50 pig farms and 20 poultry farms during 2015-16. It will be interesting to see where the
funding comes from.
Back in Russia and the
Sugar Producers' Union said that up to 90,000ha of beet crop could be damaged
by strong winds in the Central Federal District which has just been confirmed
by a contact of mine who said the damage is substantial in his area and has
affected sunflower too.
We used to plant
barley or straw between the rows to stop windblow, perhaps I should tell them.
I received reports this week that “dryland wheat in southern Russia was starting
to suffer from a cumulative lack of rain" and recent high temperatures and “rain
is sorely needed in central Russia” particularly where they have finished
plantings.
Following a quick trip out of the office yesterday I also confirmed that
wheat in Kursk is starting to show signs of drought (pictured) although as
I write the skies have clouded over and the air is heavy with thunder which is
about right as I'm off to a barbecue tonight.
Crimea mentioned that irrigated land is down to 13,000ha from 140,000ha in 2013 as no alternative water sources have been provided by authorities after
Ukraine closed off the North Crimea Canal following the Russian annexation in
2014.
Still in Crimea and the
regional head got his excuse in early and saying they need 3bn RUB state
support to buy 700 machines for planting and harvesting to realise a
successful harvest. I assume he realises
Crimea will start harvest in a couple of weeks’ time so he needs to get his
skates on to secure funding, place an order, take delivery and assemble a fleet
of combines.
Also getting his
excuse in early is Rostov's Minister of Agriculture who announced today that
2015 harvest will be 20% down on last year (down from 9.5mmt to 7.7mmt)
mentioning a dry autumn and a lack of bank credit as the main problem.
And finally, only
days after lifting its export tax on wheat Russia is suggesting it might tax
wheat exports again in order to protect livestock farmers from rising feed costs
but fail to mention how they will protect grain farmers from low prices.
A quick reminder
that we are taking subscriptions for the next Crop Tour which is now scheduled for
second week of June and that I will be in touch with those who have expressed
an interest once I can get my IT systems functioning properly.
Right, I'm off to throw a shrimp on the barbie.