The President of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky,
has said that the 2017 general grain harvest in Russia will be high but will not
reach the record level of the previous year.
His premise being that the condition of winter crops after the
end of winter is a determining factor and in 2015-16 almost 100% survived while
traditionally farmers lose 10-15% so it is hardly possible to rely on the
same results this year.
I would agree with Mr Zlochevsky’s observation and add to it how
rain during the rest of the season allowed that record amount of crop that
survived the winter to go on and yield so well at harvest.
A perfect storm of weather conditions which is unlikely
to be repeated this year.
Crops were in very good condition going into the
winter (see our crop condition report) and despite some recent reservations
about Krasnodar, right now they are all pretty much tucked up safely under an insulating blanket
of snow.
Assuming nothing untoward happens between now and the end of
winter (although there is still a lot of winter to get through so it could) then there should be a good foundation of winter cereals at the
start of the season.
However I just don’t see that the rest of the season will be as conducive
to crop growth as it was last year.
One look at the precipitation charts shows
how unusual last year was and we are overdue a dry year, 2017 could be it.
We’ll be kicking off the first crop tour of the season in March
to take an independent assessment of crop condition post winter with thoughts on yield potential, subscription details will be made available in the next few weeks.