Wednesday, 23 November 2016

Russia harvest 75mmt of wheat

Russian Ministry of Agriculture report the 2016 wheat harvest reached 75.8mmt, 19% more than last year (63.9mmt in 2015).

Yield was 2.79mt/ha across 27.2mha which compares with 2.51mt/ha across 25.5mha in 2015.

Although production is up 19% on last year, yield per hectare is up 11%, which is good but in my opinion comes from weather rather than fundamental changes in management.

Essentially 2016 was a wet year and crops grew.

The rest of that increase in output has come from an increase in hectares, up 7% year-on-year.

So, just for example, if this years yield had been the same as the three year yield average then output would have been 65mmt.

My point being that if in 2017 we have a dry or hot year or general weather conditions are not conducive to crop growth then even with extra hectares, overall production would drop significantly.

And after four good years in a row, Russia is overdue a difficult growing season.