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To date Ukraine has cut 891kha or 9% of the
planned area producing 2.5mmt of grain with an average yield of 2.78mt/ha.
This compares to the same date last year
when 2,174kha was cut giving an average yield of 2.55mt/ha.
The yield might be up because of a
combination of no Crimea which is generally lower yielding and would skew the
average downwards and better growing conditions producing a better crop.
But I am having difficulty in reconciling
the shortfall of 1.2mha harvested, some of that will be Crimea but not all of it surely.
Is the conflict having a bigger impact than I first estimated?
The latest figures include 227kha wheat yielding
2.72mt/ha; 655kha barley yielding 2.81mt/ha; 15kha peas yielding 1.81mt/ha and 112kha
winter oilseed rape (or canola) yielding 1.66mt/ha.