Ukraine has
harvested 5.14mha or 52% of the early harvest producing 16.11mmt with an
average yield of 3.14m/ha, slightly up on the last report (3.04mt/ha)
and the same date last year (2.92mt/ha).
With
settled weather forecast through the rest of the week, harvest should carry on unhindered
obviously apart from the areas of conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk.
In a purely
academic exercise carried out from the safety of my desk to try and quantify the possible impact of the conflict on
the grain harvest, Donetsk and Luhansk
contain about 9% or 3.1mha of Ukraine’s arable land.
Making the
assumption that 75% of the land is cropped; 30% of the cropped land is cereals;
50% of that is in the conflict zone and unreachable; I reckon that’s about
351kha of small grain cereals at risk of not being harvested or about 4% of the
national crop or at current yield figures 1.1mmt.
That’s
something to think about.
For the
record then, current bunker weight yields are running as follows; wheat 3.38mt/ha;
barley 2.77mt/ha; rye 2.24mt/ha; oats 1.71mt/ha; peas 2.20mt/ha; oilseed rape 2.16mt/ha.