Agricultural classes in school

Last year, in the Russian region of Udmurtia, four schools ran pilot agricultural classes for about 100 students. 

Demand has grown with 400 children already signed up for this year.

The educational project, initiated by the regional Ministry of Agriculture, uses specialists from agricultural enterprises as teachers.

I know there are many local and regional initiatives already in place around the world, but I think food and farming is such a fundamental issue that it should automatically be part of every school curriculum.

It would help enormously if children grew up with an awareness of where food comes from, what they are looking at when out in the countryside, and what good food looks and tastes like.

Hard as I’ve looked, I’ve yet to find a nugget on a chicken.

Ukraine harvest update

Ukraine’s early crop harvest is all but done, the latest results are as follows.

Wheat 98.9% cut, 26.6MMT, 4.09MT/HA

Barley 99.6% cut, 8.7MMT, 3.67MT/HA

Rapeseed 99.7% cut, 2.54MMT, 2.29MT/HA

Ukraine's three-year economic forecast

Ukraine’s Ministry of Economic Development, Trade, and Agriculture have adjusted their 2020 inflation forecast to 5.9%, down from their previous forecast of 11.6%.

The ministry also forecasts an average annual exchange rate of UAH27.00/USD, previously they called it UAH29.50/USD.

Other updated 2020 forecasts include a trade deficit of $5.4 billion (previously estimated at $8.3 billion), GDP UAH 3.975 trillion (down from UAH 3.985 trillion), and an increase in railway transportation tariffs by 17% this year, then 22% and 26% in the next two years.

Presumably, that rail tariff will impact on the competitiveness of Ukraine grain exports.

The ministries next three-year forecast has been approved and published by the Government, here are the headlines.

• GDP growth 4.6% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023;
• Consumer price index 107.3% in 2021, 106.2% in 2022 and 105.3% in 2023;
• Increase in average monthly wage 12.1% in 2021, 6.0% in 2022 and 5.1% in 2023;
• Unemployment rate in 9.2% in 2021, 8.5% in 2022, 8.0% in 2023;
• Growth of exports of goods and services 2.9% in 2021, 6.4% in 2022, 8.2% in 2023.

Referring to the forecasts, Economy Minister, Igor Petrashko said "further gradual acceleration of economic growth and the formation of a quality basis for sustainable economic development in the medium term, taking into account major reforms and maintaining financial stability".

But you’d expect him to say that.

Russian hemp

Smart Hemp Ltd. will start the construction of a hemp processing plant in Russia later this year.

The company has grown 1,250 hectares of industrial hemp in Ivanovo region this season and plans to grow up to 5,000 hectares next year.

Harvest of the current crop is now underway.

The company has been working with Rostselmash to produce a prototype forage harvester with a rotary header to harvest industrial hemp.

Smart Hemp director, Maxim Uvarov, said: “Hemp is extremely difficult to harvest, although sowing and growing it, in general, is not difficult”.

According to Uvarov, the use of hemp as a raw material is extremely wide, including the textiles industry, building materials, and the food industry.

Smart Hemp Ltd. is registered in Cyprus and incorporated November 2019.

Organic food production grows in Russia

Since the start of the year, 35 Russian businesses received organic production certification, and are now included in the state register of organic producers.

More than 20 of them are producers of meat and dairy products, as well as compound feed, grain, and forage crops. 

Other enterprises produce alcoholic beverages, baby food, tea, coffee, and grapes. 

Their products can now be marked with the organic logo and with the words "organic" in Russian and English.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, there are more than 10 million hectares of unused agricultural land considered to be suitable for organic farming, under the claim that there are no contaminants or chemical fertilizer applications.

Ukraine’s President promotes investment in agriculture

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky released a one-minute promotion video calling the country a land of opportunity in tourism, information technology, and agriculture.

Ukraine’s potential has been talked about ever since it gained independence in 1991 but has consistently failed to live up to expectations.

Foreign investors cite Ukraine’s non-independent judicial system and corruption as the main barriers to investment, something generally confirmed by anyone who has done business in Ukraine.

Zelensky praised recent reforms to land ownership, supposedly lifting the long-standing moratorium on the sale of agricultural land, but will only apply to Ukrainian citizens and companies. 

I suspect foreign companies will be looking for further liberalization on land ownership before a video tempts them in.

Live and let die hard

Ten days ago, the Russian ministry of agriculture reported the Kursk and Belgorod wheat harvest was nearing completion and would be finished in two or three days.

Today, a large agribusiness there, told me they finished their wheat harvest, a full week after the ministry said it was already done.

When I told my contacts that the wheat harvest had officially finished there a week ago, they were surprised and told me there is still standing crop in the region.

This reminds me of the time we received a visit from the head of the local administration to tell us we were not harvesting quick enough.

He produced a piece of paper with a league table of farms and how much they had cut to date, and sure enough, we were bottom last.

I told him we didn't really care what everyone else was doing, that it wasn’t a competition, our harvest schedule was bang on target, and he shouldn’t worry.

This made him angry, so I got angry back, he shouted, I shouted, we glared at each other across the table, we'd reached an impasse.

Then, a colleague of mine piped up, "What if we 'report' we have harvested more hectares, will that be alright?"

Yes, came the immediate reply, that will be fine, smiles resumed, the atmosphere improved, the head of administration was happy, he could now report up the chain that all was well, and presumably keep his job for another season.

I mention this because it seems old habits die hard, and we still need to take official reports coming out of former soviet countries with a degree of scepticism.

Including harvest data.

Ukraine agrees wheat export limits for new marketing year

Ukraine's Ministry of Economy, along with representatives from the grain market, today agreed on the maximum volume of grain exports for the 2020-2021 marketing year.

This included wheat at 17.5MMT, and 1,000MT of rye.

The current wheat harvest is nearly finished and should produce a final yield of 27MMT, which leaves about 9.5MMT for domestic consumption, continuing the four-year trend for annual domestic consumption figures to be below 10MMT.

Between 2017 and 2019, the average annual domestic consumption for Ukraine wheat was 9.2MMT; between 2000 and 2016, average annual consumption was 12.1MMT.

I think that’s telling us something.

The ministry retained a caveat that depending on the final data on wheat harvest, the agreement may be revised in the 4th quarter.

The grain memorandum has been in place since 2011.

Belarusians stand up

After a monumental weekend in Belarus, which saw unprecedented numbers of people gather in the centre of Minsk, calling for President Alexander Lukashenko to resign, today we saw workers at a factory openly heckle him in what looked suspiciously like his Ceaușescu moment.

Events are moving at pace, but it now looks like there will be no coming back for the former collective farm manager turned defacto post-soviet dictator.

Thoughts are now turning to outside Belarus to see what others may or may not do, lets hope it’s peaceful.

Belarus produces around two million tonnes of wheat at an average yield of three tonnes per hectare, so plenty of scope for improvement should the socio-political landscape become conducive to investment.

It’s been a while since I was last in Belarus so I might be out of touch, but I suspect the biggest constraint on yields will be the low genetic potential of domestic crop varieties, and probably some outdated practices.

You can fix plant genetics almost immediately, by allowing the import of seed, then longer term by investing in plant breeding facilities.

Changing outdated practices, however, would be nigh on impossible while the president cum farm manager cum dictator was still in charge.  He was known for driving around and berating farm managers for what he considered to be bad or slovenly work.

I remember on one occasion, somewhere in the northeast of the country on a grey cold October day, talking to an agronomist, I asked him when he put his fertiliser on?  “When its delivered” was his honest reply.

Then there was the time we had a late dinner and got absolutely hammered in what turned out to be an abattoir.

So many memories, hope we get the chance to make more.

Ukraine's wheat harvest is in the shed, almost...

As of Friday, Ukraine’s wheat harvest was reported as nearly finished (96%) at 25.5MMT from 6.3MHA with an average yield of 4.05MT/HA.

This means the final harvest figure should reach 26.9MMT, or thereabouts.

Our last forecast in July was 26.4MMT, which is within 2% of the projected final harvest figure, so we at GSAC HQ are happy with that, particularly considering the awkward COVID restrictions we had to work with. 

The chart shows how our spring forecasts worked out from March onwards, although we did make our first tour and forecast in the previous November when we assessed the condition of the newly emerged crop.  This helps us determine how the crop might survive over winter and allows us to set a basis come spring.

Our forecast success rate for Ukraine wheat over the previous four seasons now stands at 3%, meaning the average of all forecasts between March and July over each season are accurate to within 3% of the final yield.

Forecasting crop yield is not an exact science but we do spend a lot of time in the field which helps.

We will continue to refine and develop how we conduct our forecasts in the future and will take each season as a new learning opportunity.  

A bit like farming then.

I remember someone older and wiser than me, saying they had only been farming one year, but they had done it fifty times.

Drop me an email if you would like to find out more about our Black Sea crop forecasting service, or would like to subscribe, or indeed possibly join us on one of our tours.

blackseacroptour@gmail.com

This week's Black Sea agri-business news

USDA WASDE figures out this week upped Russian wheat 1.5MMT from 76.5MMT in July to 78MMT.  

Many had been anticipating a larger increase, but with 45% of the wheat harvest still to go, and the Russian ministry of agriculture continuing to hold at 75MMT, it looks like WASDE took a cautious approach.  

There are also some questions about how many hectares are out there.  

Two weeks ago, the state statistics department increased their wheat hectare estimation from 28.8MHA to 29.4MHA, and some of this increase was winter wheat, which begs the question, where had it been hiding these last eight months.  

Either way, we are still looking at a big Russian wheat crop, the second-largest ever, although given the low yields in the south, will more of the export fraction now have to be sourced from further up country?

WASDE upped Ukraine wheat 0.5MMT from 26.5MMT to 27.0MMT, and with 90% of the crop now cut it’s looking likely to be around there.

That should give an export potential of 16MMT, although don’t be surprised if that goes higher as Ukraine will need the cash unless they are bailed out by the EU or US.

Conditions elsewhere in the Black Sea and parts of Romania and Moldova are struggling with the dry conditions.

Reports from Romania that an entire county lost almost all their arable crops to drought; local authorities in Galati County are declaring the region a disaster area as 180,000 hectares are said to be affected.  

Farmers in Moldova continue to press the government for support, saying they will block roads for two hours a day for two weeks unless the government takes action; the government had previously allocated €50/HA for damaged crops, farmers say they have losses of over €300/HA.

Over in Belarus and factory workers are striking in protest to the violence being meted out by Lukashenko’s goons, who he released on the population after the initial protests following last Sundays rigged elections.  

I give it a week before he’s helicoptered out to spend his retirement in Rostov where he and Yanukovych can tell each other how unfair it all was.

Жыве Беларусь!

Protests!

Farmers in Moldova are protesting, they want government support after dry conditions led to widespread crop failure.

Many will have bought inputs on credit which they will now struggle to repay, plus they need cash or credit to buy inputs for the autumn planted crops.

This is the second very dry season in a row in Moldova, and we are now seeing vineyards and trees affected.

Estonian farmers are protesting the proposed deportation of nine Ukrainian agricultural workers after the Police and Border Guard Board (PPA) said they had violated quarantine on arrival in Estonia in late July.

Authorities claim the workers violated quarantine by working; the farmers say they were putting their living quarters in order when they were raided by the PPA.

Protesters in Belarus took to the streets after Sunday's election saw the long term president and former collective farm manager, Alexander Lukashenko, achieve 80% of the votes, which the opposition say is fixed.

It's reported that anger towards Lukashenko's government has been fuelled by his response to coronavirus, Lukashenko famously downplayed the outbreak, advising citizens to drink vodka and drive tractors.

While global media are showing images of protestors on the streets facing tear gas and rubber bullets, the state media is reporting the grain harvest is 68% complete.

I can’t confirm the harvest report because, at the time of writing, the state media website is off-line.

That doesn’t sound good.

Ukraine harvest update

Ukraine’s 2020 wheat harvest is 87% completed, with 5.8MHA producing 23.1MMT at an average yield of 3.98MT/HA.

This compares with 6.3MHA, 25.8MMT, and 4.10MMT/HA on the same day last year.

The barley harvest is 90% at 2.1MHA producing 7.9MMT at a yield average of 3.76MT/HA (2.40MHA, 8.1MMT, 3.38MT/HA in 2019).

Oilseed rape is 91% completed at 2.2MHA, producing 1.0MHA, at an average yield of 2.2MT/HA.

Russian harvest update

Russia’s 2020 wheat harvest has reached the halfway point, with 14.5MHA producing 53.4MMT at an average yield of 3.67MT/HA.

This compares with 13.3MHA, 48.0MMT, and 3.61MMT/HA on the same day last year.

The wheat harvest is now moving into the eastern spring wheat growing regions where there is some suggestion that hot dry weather may have reduced prospects.

We’ll find out soon enough.

The barley harvest is about a third of the way through at 3.0MHA producing 9.5MMT at a yield average of 3.16MT/HA.

Oilseed rape is about a fifth of the way through at 270KHA, 630KMT, and 2.33MT/HA.

Sugar beet harvest has started in Krasnodar with the first 2.2KHA producing 98.2KMT at an average yield of 44.6MT/HA.

Work in progress

Way back in history, when I first set up the blog AgronomyUkraine, I was living in Ukraine mainly doing agronomy.

I no longer live in Ukraine and my remit has widened, while I still do agronomy I am also involved in other aspects of Black Sea agri-business.

So, the old name has gone, thank you very much AgronomyUkraine for many years of loyal service, and hello GreenSquareAC.

Green Square Agro Consulting Ltd is our official business name, we are an association of consultants experienced in providing practical support for agricultural projects in Black Sea regions.

We have delivered consultancy and advisory work in Croatia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Spain, Uzbekistan, to name but a few, but more about that later.

In the meantime, I am updating, revamping, renaming, improving, and generally redeveloping this blog to focus on reporting Black Sea agri-business news with an opinion on implications. 

Football may also be mentioned.

Mike