Temperatures have started dropping in Ukraine
and Russia, from unseasonably mild -5 oC down to -17oC in
eastern Ukraine last night with forecasts over the next few days suggesting it
might go as low as -20oC.
There is very little snow about over much of
the region, see picture of Central Russia earlier this week, leaving crops exposed to damage from a drop in temperatures.
There is not much snow forecast until early next week when it is being described as light to moderate.
There is not much snow forecast until early next week when it is being described as light to moderate.
The key issues now will be how
rapidly and how low will temperatures drop, and when and how much snow will fall?
If temperatures drop steadily and snow falls
then it’s unlikely to be an issue but if the temperatures drop rapidly before
decent levels of snow falls then we could be seeing elevated levels of winter
kill.
It’s difficult to quantify the degree of risk
or expected levels of winter kill but it will likely be higher in parts of Ukraine
where proportionally more crop is in a backward and underdeveloped state and
less tolerant to colder weather.
The relatively milder weather and rain that
fell across much of Russia last month has allowed crops there to catch up and as
such they are in a better condition to withstand the cold but not entirely risk
free.
The next ten days in Ukraine and Russia are
likely to be critical to winter crop survival.