Black Sea crop winter kill risk assesment

Overnight snow in central Russia will help protect the growing point from cold temperature and has reduced the risk of plant death.

Reduced but not completely alleviated.

As far as I can tell from the satellite data, snow has not fallen everywhere and much has fallen as sleet which will have little insulating properties.

Trying to assess the situation from various sources such as my contacts around the regions, satellites, weather forecasts and a large amount of gut feeling, I think the current crop damage risk assessment looks something like this:

• Western Ukraine (west of Dnieper) - no snow cover, forecast lows of -12^oC, crops in good condition, low risk.
• Southern Ukraine - some snow cover, forecast indicate lows of -12^oC, crops in poor condition, medium risk.
• Eastern Ukraine - limited snow cover, forecast indicate lows of -16^oC, crops in poor condition, high risk.
• North Ukraine - snow cover, forecast indicate lows of -16^oC, crops in poor condition, low risk.
• South Russia (Krasnodar, Stavropol) - snow cover, forecast indicate lows of -4^oC to -8^oC, crops in good condition, low risk.
• South Russia (Rostov, Volgograd) - limited snow cover, forecast indicate lows of -12^oC, crops in good condition, medium risk.
• Central Russia (Voronezh, Belgorod, Kursk, Oryol, Lipetsk) - some snow cover, forecast indicate lows of -16^oC to -20^oC, crops in good condition, medium to high risk.

Drop me a line if you have additional reliable information from the ground (not sputnik) and I will update.