The weather in
Ukraine and Russia continues to make news as dry conditions delay germination
of recently planted winter crops.
Ongoing drought
conditions through central and eastern Ukraine and central Russia have put a dent
in the aspirations of the 2016 grain and oilseed crop.
The 60-day
precipitation ranged from less than 10% of normal in central Ukraine to 25% in
other regions and there are reports of crops failing to germinate.
Farmers delayed drilling
waiting until conditions improved, which they didn’t, or have decided to wait
until the spring has meant that plantings in Ukraine are down 11% on last year and
5% in Russia.
Some of this
shortfall will be made up in the spring but spring crops generally yield lower than
autumn sown crops.
What has been
planted is not in ideal condition either; nearly 40% of Ukraine's planted crop
(already down 11% on last year) has not germinated and 20% of what has emerged is
reported in poor condition.
One of my contacts
in southern Ukraine told me last night they didn’t plant half of their winter
cropping programme and what is up is at one leaf stage making it vulnerable to cold
weather.
However contacts in
other parts of Ukraine and Russia tell me conditions look much better with moist
soil and warm weather contributing to rapid germination and good establishment.
Black Earth Farming in central Russia report their 38,000 hectares of winter crops
to be "in excellent condition".
Clearly there is an
issue in parts of Ukraine and Russia but as is often the case the picture is
not necessarily as clear as is reported.
To try and bring
some transparency I am planning a Crop Tour through Ukraine in the next few
weeks.
As with previous
tours I will travel through selected regions of Ukraine making rapid and
detailed appraisals on the crop condition.
I will take photographs
and video’s, tweet observations through a subscribers only account and produce
a full report on completion.
If you think an
unbiased, independent, boots on the ground appraisal is of interest to you and
would like to support us in our work then drop me a line and I’ll sign you up
and send you an invoice for £100.
Thanks for the
ongoing support.