Ukraine
Ukraine’s grain
exports are growing at moderate pace. In the new marketing
year 2014/15, by mid-October, Ukraine has exported over 6 million metric tons
of wheat and over one million tons of barley. Concurrently, the
2013/14 corn marketing year is approaching completion with over 18 million tons
already exported. Grain stocks are
high due to a large production, but will likely deplete as the trade rallies on
the expectation of another large corn harvest in 2014/15. Domestic grain
prices at the start of the new season were lower than in the previous year and
are expected to maintain low throughout the season. Winter crops have
been planted in favourable fall weather conditions.
Russia
Based on the
officially reported data on grain harvest progress, FAS/Moscow increased its
forecast of Russia’s total grain crop in MY 2014/15 by 2mmt to 101mmt. The forecasted crop
includes 57.5mmt of wheat, 19mmt of barley, 11.5mmt of corn, and almost 13mmt
of other grains and pulses. Given these crop
volumes and the volatility of rouble exchange rate Russia may export 28mmt of
grain, including 21mmt of wheat, 4mmt of barley, 2.5mmt of corn, and from 0.5
to 0.8mmt of other grains and pulses.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan’s 2014
grain harvest is lower than last year, with the FAS/Astana estimate for wheat production
at 13.0mmt, down from last year’s 13.9mmt. FAS/Astana estimates
wheat exports in the 2014/15 marketing year at 6.0mmt, down 1.5mmt from last
year but still far below the levels of 2011/12 of nearly 12mmt. Delays in harvesting,
and onset of rain and snow during the harvest resulted in lower production
figures and high moisture content. These factors are also expected to negatively impact Kazakhstan's exports.