Brief update from the FSU

Belarus has officially completed planting maize with 231kha in the ground, declared the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of Belarus.

They also went on to say that 33kha (32% of the plan) of spring rapeseed has been planted.

My contacts in Russia are telling me all crops are looking very good there and planting is well on schedule although April has been dry in parts and they could do with some rain now please.

I hesitate to mention buckwheat, a staple food item in these parts, because when I mentioned it last time for some inexplicable reason the hits on my blog went through the roof and I was inundated with emails but here goes. 

During the first 8 months of 13/14 MY Russia exported a record 27kmt of buckwheat compared to 8kmt the previous year and 2.5kmt the year before that.  Ukraine is the main export market with 14kmt delivered so far this MY.  I guess Ukraine will be looking to up its buckwheat planting for this year because I assume that source will no longer be available.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Ag is preparing an Agrarian Code of Ukraine to come in to force by 2015 and will annul competing laws.  Let’s hope they don’t turn to their new pals in Brussels for advice on putting together a common agricultural policy because we all know how well that works.

Further developments from Ukraine’s mad busy Ministry of Ag is to decentralize agricultural control suggesting they will cancel excessive controls and delegate responsibility to the regions.  That could be a double edged sword depending who is in charge of the regions.

At the same time the Government has announced they will reduce the number of taxes in the new version of the Tax Code to 8 in attempt to simplify the tax procedure and reduce the possibility for tax evasion.

On the face of it all these changes to legislation and business practice seem sensible and will make the business environment easier for investors which is what Ukraine desperately needs.

Farming in Ukraine continues despite the threat of war

Here is a copy of my latest blog for informative and useful Farmers Review website.

While a full on war hasn't quite broken out the situation in eastern Ukraine continues to teeter on the brink of something tense but no one seems quite sure what.

Various official buildings and offices are being taken over by pro-Russian, pro-separatist groups who rally around a single issue agenda of self-rule and have a general distrust of the interim Government in Kiev.

Shots have been fired with several deaths reported, journalists have been kidnapped, so too have international military observers (whatever they are), some bodies have turned up with signs of torture and pro-Ukraine and pro-Russia groups are clashing on the streets with bloody results.

Recently the mayor of Kharkiv was shot and is now in critical condition in what appeared to be an assassination attempt aimed at  the situation further.

Russia is widely thought to be behind the separatists or at least the former disgraced Ukrainian President in exile in Russia where he ran to with $32 billion which he is now using to fund the separatists but as yet no one has been able to produce conclusive proof that Russia is directly involved.

I’m sure they are but only in the same way the US is directly involved supporting the other side.

That’s the problem with geo-politics, you never have the full picture and it’s very easy to run to simplistic conclusions about who are the goodies and who are the baddies.

On a positive note events haven’t yet spiraled out of control and I assume the longer it goes on the less likely it is for the situation to break down completely.

 

But then again I’m a farmer not a strategic analyst so don’t blame me if I get it wrong.

On a further positive note there has been a series of rapid fire announcements coming from the Ministry of Agriculture in Kiev all seemingly sensible and geared towards making business easier, more transparent and aimed at encouraging investment in to the sector.

Some of the initiatives include EU trade preferences for Ukrainian exporters; the introduction of minimum term on agricultural land leases; deregulation of the market for pesticides; cancelled grain and granary certification; develop organic production and exports; National Bank provided lending support and a simplified procedure of agricultural land allocation.

I get the impression that the new Government, which boasts the highest ever share of top and mid-level government officials with western degrees and international business experience are actually trying to do something sensible and effective.

Recent rain in central and western regions helped the over-wintered crops and newly planted spring crops and they are looking very good at the moment.  Crops further east are starting to show signs of stress from a lack of water.

Winter wheat is around GS30-32 (pseudo stem erect, 2^nd node detectable) and winter oilseed rape is at early to mid-flower.

The season is about twenty days earlier than last year which will have the effect of increasing the yield potential for all crops assuming the season ahead is conducive to growing.  However any yield potential will be restricted by a lack of finance, inflation, exchange rate fluctuations and general uncertainty which will discourage a high level of investment in to this year’s crop, particularly fertiliser.

Gas prices going up (Russia supplies Ukraine with gas) will make grain drying expensive so I anticipate a drop in maize planting to be replaced with sunflower or even fallow.  We are about half way through sunflower planting and about a third of the maize crop is now in the ground.

Crop prices have moved upwards on the back of the continued uncertainty in Ukraine and cold weather in the US which is good news if you still have crop to sell.

The farming clock keeps turning regardless of what Putin, Obama and the rest get up to.

Latest USDA weather update

Volume 101, No. 17, full report available here.

Warm, wet weather in western portions of the region contrasted with mostly sunny skies in the east. 

Moisture associated with a slow-moving storm system over the Black Sea produced showers and thunderstorms (2-25 mm) across Ukraine, Belarus, and southern Russia, with a heavier band of rain (25-70 mm) embedded over central and northwestern Ukraine.

The rainfall improved soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and conditioned fields for planting of small grains, corn, and sunflowers.

Dry weather across central Russia maintained a rapid pace of fieldwork, including planting of spring grains and summer crops.

A warm southerly flow persisted, allowing daytime highs to push into the lower and middle 20s (degrees C) across much of the region. 

However, colder weather arrived at week’s end, with readings in northern portions of the Southern District reaching -5°C, possibly causing some localized burnback of more advanced winter wheat. 

Amid tension in Ukraine, positive change sought for farmers

Here is a copy of an article I'm quoted in posted by the editor of Grainews Lisa Guenther.

As seeding progresses in Ukraine, farmers are eyeing input prices, markets and weather, just as their counterparts do in other parts of the world.  But Ukraine’s farmers have the added worry of whether conflict in the eastern part of the country will boil over.

Last week Russian and Ukrainian officials signed an accord agreeing to back away from further violence and calling for demonstrators to leave public buildings in eastern Ukraine.  But three pro-Russia separatists were slain in a shootout in the eastern city of Slavyansk over the weekend, and the bodies of two people allegedly abducted by pro-Russian activists were discovered Tuesday.  Ukraine forces on Thursday reportedly killed up to five pro-Moscowseparatists.

Both sides lay blame for the violence on the other’s doorstep; Russian President Vladimir Putin most recently warned of “consequences” if Kiev used its army against its own people.  The U.S. is now deploying NATO troops to Eastern Europe.

Mike Lee, an agribusiness consultant based in the western Ukraine city of Lviv, said the conflicts have polarized people.  Lee is originally from the United Kingdom but he’s also worked in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia.  He now works with private investors setting up farms in Ukraine.

It’s difficult to know whether Russia is stirring up trouble in eastern Ukraine, or whether the separatists are local people unsure about legislators in Kiev, he said.

“In all conflicts, the first casualty is the truth, and it’s very difficult to actually find out what’s going on. Time will tell, I suppose,” said Lee.

Crop season already difficult

Lee said Lviv is quiet right now but the conflict in the east is affecting agricultural production throughout Ukraine.  “I do see the inflation and exchange rate having a big impact on an already difficult season.” [Related story]

Commodity prices collapsed after the 2013 harvest, Lee said.  “That collapse has made a big hole in everybody’s cash position.  And cash is king.”

Ukraine’s planting season is 20 days ahead of what it was last year.  There’s an urgency to get the crop in the ground, but Lee said he thinks “people are struggling.”

Lee expects to see more land left fallow and less corn in the ground this spring.

“The last three years I’ve had my suppliers on the phone at this time of year screaming at me that supplies of (maize) seeds have run down,” he said.

But the phones have been quiet this year, he said.  “So that tells me that there’s a surplus of maize seed to go in the ground.”

Gas prices are also climbing, which will turn maize drying from a costly exercise to a “prohibitively costly exercise,” said Lee.

Fertilizer is available, although it’s more expensive.  How much fertilizer will be applied to seeded acres is a question mark, Lee said.

On the positive side, Ukraine has been getting much-needed rain recently.  Spring cereals and rapeseed have been planted and maize planting is gaining momentum, Lee said.

“If we don’t get a wash-out through the rest of this month, into next month, I could see crops going into the ground in good time, in good fashion,” said Lee.

“How they perform after that with the amount of fertilizer that may or may not be applied, we’ll see.”

Longer-term view in ag

Lee said there is a group of legislators in Kiev who are “trying to bring in sensible changes to legislation.”

For example, the Ukraine government recently announced land leases would be extended “which on the face of it is a good thing because it encourages a bit more of a longer-term view, which is what agriculture needs,” said Lee.

There is a moratorium on selling agricultural land in Ukraine.  Lee said expectations that the government will eventually lift the moratorium have created a culture of short-term rental agreements “where landlords are looking to have a short lease because they want to be able to sell at the first opportunity.”

Renters have first refusal for extending lease agreements or land sales once they’ve started renting a chunk of land, said Lee.  But renters “find it difficult to invest long-term in the land because leases are relatively short.”

A working group with Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food is also considering loosening regulations around importing plant protection products by moving to a licensing system, a move Lee said could significantly boost wheat yields in years rather than decades.

Right now Ukrainian farmers can’t pick up the latest chemicals that are available to their Western European counterparts, Lee said.  Generic chemicals are also available from third-party suppliers, but Lee said farmers who buy from them run the risk of buying adulterated products.

“So while there is a range of chemicals to use, it isn't the sort of full armoury that we can go at, I presume, because there isn't a big enough demand to bring in some of those more expensive chemicals,” said Lee.

“And the legislation and the process are so cumbersome and expensive that it’s not worthwhile.”

Lee said changing the legislation would “open up the market to allow the import of a wider range of chemicals into Ukraine.”

Other changes planned, or recently made, to Ukraine’s ag policy and legislation include cancelling grain and granary certification, developing the organic industry for export to the European Union, new lending support through the National Bank, simplifying agricultural land allocation, and renewing the Deputy Prime Minister position of the agrarian complex.

Lisa Guenther is a field editor for Grainews at Livelong, Sask.  Follow her at @LtoG on Twitter.

Mike Lee blogs about farming in Ukraine; you can also follow him on Twitter at@AgronomyUkraine

Ukraine crop update

Winter oilseed rape starting to flower as nitrogen, sunshine and warmer weather have taken effect.

There has been a no significant winter kill so almost all plants have survived giving some pretty decent if not slightly thick plant stands.

Recent cool temperatures slowed growth down a little which might not be a bad thing but caused no damage.

Although it is a long way to go before harvest the crop at this stage looks very good.

Winter wheat is in good condition and now at GS30-31 (pseudo stem erect, 1^st node detectable) which is what I think they call jointing in the US.

Call me fussy but I do like the simplicity and accuracy of the decimal code growth stage system, makes perfect sense to me.

While I’m at it all decimal makes sense; kilograms or litres per hectare are easily divisible, how on earth do you calculate half rate of 3 pints per acre then decide how much to put in the tank?

And what is a bushel all about?

Soil temperatures are now warm enough for sunflower planting to be well underway with corn and soya getting started further south.

Wishing you and Ukraine a peaceful Easter.

Crop monitoring in Europe

MARS Bulletin Vol. 22 No. 4 (2014), you can find this and previous reports here.

If you’re not familiar with the Monitoring of Agriculture with Remote Sensing (MARS) project, it started in 1988 and was designed to use space technologies to provide independent, timely information on crop areas and yields.

It is a brilliant EU project but I can’t help thinking it would be added to if you had confirmation reports from boots on the ground agronomists.  

Like, for example, me.

The summary is that well-advanced winter crops would now welcome rain.  Winter crops are strongly advanced from western to eastern Europe, positive biomass accumulation in the Mediterranean countries with unfavourable canopy development in eastern Ukraine and central Turkey.

Here’s what the latest MARS bulletin has to say about Ukraine.

The map displays the differences between the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) observed during the period 21-31 March 2014 and the long-term average (LTA, 1998-2012) for the same period.  Essentially how developed the crop canopy is.

In Ukraine, persistent warm temperatures determined high crop growth rates during March.

In central regions (e.g. Poltavs’ka), increased crop demands for water are not met due to the large precipitation deficit built up over the past months.

Exceptionally dry conditions may affect crop growth.

After a mild and dry winter, March also remained milder than usual, and rainfall was sparse.

The exceptionally dry conditions in central Ukraine may affect yields of winter cereals.

Winter wheat yield forecasts are below the 5-year average.

Meteorological conditions in March followed the tendency observed during this winter.

Average temperatures remained milder than usual, from 3°C above average in eastern regions to 5°C in north-western regions.

Rainfall remained far below the average, and the six-month period October-March is one of the driest recorded in our database.

The driest conditions were observed in central regions (Cherkas’ka, Kirovohrads’ka, Mykolayivs’ka) which received 50% of the average cumulated rainfall from October to March, and 40% of the average cumulated rainfall since 1 March.

According to our model, winter crop development is 20 days in advance compared to an average year, which implies that leaf area and crop water demand are also unusually high for this time of the year.

Biomass accumulation of winter cereals will be negatively affected unless soil water levels are significantly replenished.

The emergence of spring crops may also be impacted by these exceptionally dry conditions.

Are we seeing the first real shoots of growth in Ukraine?

As Ukraine appears to teeter on the brink of civil war and uncertainty it’s worth noting that this month alone the following announcements and changes to agricultural related legislation and policy have been made.

  

I'm no expert and I have yet to study the detail but on the face of it they all seem positive, sensible and for the general good.

I get the impression there are lot of people working away in the background trying to effect real change for the nation; may be this is what the revolution was really all about.

• EU trade preferences for Ukrainian exporters come into force;
• Ukraine to introduce the minimum term on the agricultural land lease;
• Ukraine: Ministry of Agrarian Policy to deregulate the market of plant protecting agents;
• Ukraine canceled grain and granary certification;
• Ukraine to develop organic commodities production and exports to the EU;
• Ukraine: National Bank provided a new way for lending support;
• Ukraine: position of the Deputy Prime-Minister of the agrarian complex to be renewed;
• Ukraine simplified the procedure of agricultural land allocation.

Source: APK-Inform.

Latest USDA weather update

Volume 101, No. 15, full report available here.

Early-week cold gave way to more seasonable temperatures, while unfavorable dryness persisted in parts of Ukraine.

Temperatures during the beginning of the period dropped as low as -8°C across central and eastern Ukraine and -5°C in Russia’s Southern and North Caucasus Districts.  

Winter wheat in the coldest areas was likely in the tillering to early jointing stages (G.S. 30-31) of development, and consequently could withstand temperatures as low as -9°C.  However, more advanced winter grains in Ukraine may have been susceptible to burnback in the coldest locales.  By week’s end, temperatures rebounded into the teens and lower 20s (°C), mitigating any further freeze threat.  

More importantly, the first significant rain of the spring (locally up to 25 mm) arrived in Ukraine, providing much-needed soil moisture for vegetative winter crops and recently-planted small grains.  Despite the rain, longer term deficits persists, with north-central portions of Ukraine - a key corn area - reporting less than 50 percent of normal precipitation over the past 90 days.  

In contrast, additional light to moderate rain and wet snow (2-20 mm liquid equivalent) in Russia, Belarus, and Moldova maintained adequate soil moisture for winter wheat development and upcoming summer crop planting.

Ukraine farmers finish spring planting

Here's a copy of my article in this weeks Farmers Weekly Interactive written by Phil Case.

Spring drilling has got off to a flying start in Ukraine amid a growing sense of optimism for the future, says expatriate agronomist Mike Lee.

Following an unusually mild late winter, drilling started mid-March – up to a month earlier than in previous years.

All the spring peas, barley, wheat and oats are pretty much planted across the country, which remains under threat of invasion from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, according to reports in the Western press.

Now farmers are starting to plant the main spring crops of sunflowers, maize and soya, says Mr Lee.

“The spring planting season is very early this year. We have had a mild season and we are three to four weeks ahead of previous years,” he explains.

This season, spring plantings in Ukraine are forecast to be 9-10% down on last year.

A lack of cash, increased credit costs and the threat of war hanging over the country means most growers are adopting a cautious approach.

“Last year, commodity prices dropped significantly. Many people were growing maize as a way of trying to be profitable,” says Mr Lee.

“But that hasn't worked. People are short of cash. On top of that, the heightened war risk is making credit expensive.”

Diesel and fertiliser are the two big costs, but farmers are also trying to cut their wage and chemical bills.

Spring seed and chemicals are available to buy, but companies are typically charging 20-30% for farmers to buy products on credit.

As a result, farmers are trying to cut costs by buying generic chemicals and local seed.

Inputs costs are broadly similar to those of the UK and western Europe, but rented land is a lot cheaper, at £35-40/ha. However, prices are generally 20-30% lower than world market prices, because crops are mostly exported.

Owing to the dry field conditions, farmers who have previously deep cultivated will be reaping the benefits as roots grow deeper into moisture, says Mr Lee.

About half of the cropping in Ukraine is row cropping. And farmers generally use big drills, such as the Horsch Pronto, to drill cereals and Gaspardo precision drills for sunflowers and maize to cover the ground.

“They need to go for scale. If you look at the agricultural system in western Europe, it is small scale but very intensive farms,” he says.  “North America and Australia have big farms, but they are low-intensive. In Ukraine, you have the potential for intensive, large-scale farms, which is unprecedented.”

Ukraine has about 20 “super-large” farms of 100,000-500,000ha.

It is not uncommon to have a farming workforce of up to 40 people, alternating on shifts 24 hours a day. 

“The wheels need to be turning all the time,” says Mr Lee.  “For example, crop spraying will start this month and run through to November.  They are pretty much non-stop.”

So, what does Mr Lee think the future will hold for Ukraine?

“It’s not a straightforward situation. We still don’t know what will happen,” he admits.  “The geopolitical situation escalated. You have got Russia versus the West, and Ukraine as a pawn in the middle.  “Ukraine is being used as a catalyst for the re-emergence of Cold War sensitivities. Beneath that, you have a new interim government and elections on 25 May.

“Ukraine has a lot of issues – massive debts, corruption, and credit is very expensive.

“But there is this real sense of a possibility to improve life here.  The country has a real opportunity to develop and turn into what it should be.

“Can it do that without the influence of the West and Russia, which is trying to use the country to enact its influence?”

Russia has reportedly amassed roughly 40,000 troops near the federation’s border with eastern Ukraine.

But while the world waits to see if the massed Russian troops will invade, Mr Lee says the farming must go on in the country.

“We are out planting. From a farming perspective, we cannot wait until [Putin] decides what he’s going to do,” he adds.

“The planting season starts regardless of politics. The cycle continues.”

Mike Lee is a freelance consultant based in Ukraine. He updates his blog Agronomy-Ukraine and Twitter account @AgronomyUkraine with regular updates on farming and life in Ukraine.

Why the dry weather might not be all bad for Ukraine winter crops

Some rain happening now in western Ukraine, moving eastwards throughout the rest of the week.

This will stimulate germination and establishment of recently planted spring cereals and peas and  bring some relief to over wintered wheat and rape crops.

The dry winter and spring thus far might not necessarily be as bad for over wintered crops as it initially seems.

In dry conditions plant roots tend to go deeper looking for water and warmer than average (and warmer than last year soil temperature - see graph in the adjacent column) will have stimulated root development earlier in the season.

This will have allowed for a greater mass and length of root to develop, as can be seen on this chart.  The upshot of this is that if soil structure and everything else allows, there will be more roots deeper in to the soil profile which will be able to absorb water for longer as it drains past.

So the moral is to fix your soil structure so roots can develop to depth, it’ll pay dividends in a dry season.

Latest USDA weather update

Volume 101, No. 14, full report available here.

Sharply colder weather settled over the region, while unfavorable dryness persisted in parts of Ukraine.

A strong early-week cold front was followed by temperatures up to 5°C below normal, with nighttime readings dropping as low as -7°C across central and eastern Ukraine as well as portions of Russia’s Southern and North Caucasus Districts.

Winter wheat in the coldest areas was likely in the tillering to early jointing stages of development, and consequently could withstand temperatures as low as -9°C.

However, more advanced winter grains - particularly in Ukraine - may have reached the mid- to late-jointing stages, and therefore be susceptible to freeze damage from readings of -4°C or lower. In addition, Ukraine producers are in need of moisture due to a drier-than-normal winter and early spring, with rainfall during the past week (5 mm or less) doing little to improve winter crop prospects.

Short-term dryness also reduced moisture reserves for small grains in Belarus and Moldova.

In contrast, widespread rain and wet snow (5-25 mm liquid equivalent) maintained adequate soil moisture in Russia.

USDA latest weather update for western FSU

Volume 101, No. 13, Weather April 1, 2014, full report here.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions were followed by sharply colder weather by week’s end.  

A strong area of high pressure maintained unusually warm weather over the region; temperatures averaged up to 10°C above normal in Belarus, 7°C above normal in Ukraine, and 8°C above normal in western Russia.  

Daytime highs topped 20°C from central Belarus southeastward into Ukraine and southern portions of Russia’s Southern District, which continued to foster a faster-than-normal pace of winter crop development.

However, the sunny skies and unseasonable warmth also increased water demands and further reduced soil moisture for winter wheat and rapeseed, especially in central and northern Ukraine.  

By week’s end, a strong cold front was accompanied by light to moderate showers (2-13 mm) across southern portions of Ukraine and Russia. 

Behind the front, temperatures dropped as low as -4°C in the more advanced southern growing areas, though wheat had not yet reached the temperature-sensitive jointing stages of development.  

Therefore, little - if any - widespread impact is expected from this week’s freeze. 

The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end for Ukraine?

Over the course of a couple of weeks Ukraine went from having a functioning if not deeply corrupt administration to the government ordering the devastating use of live ammunition in Kiev to the President fleeing the country and a new interim government issuing a warrant for his arrest.

Russia thought this was a good time to invade Crimea and through a hastily organised referendum held at the barrel of a gun annexed the peninsular before anyone could figure out what was going on.

The US and EU then issued sanctions targeted at specific Russian individuals and their assets and Russia responded in kind.

Russian troops have massed on the border in preparation to invade further in to mainland Ukrainian sovereign territory.

Tomorrow the former President of Ukraine will give a press conference in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, to complain about how ethnic Russians in Ukraine are under attack from fascists thereby giving Putin the legal framework to order the invasion of mainland Ukraine.

The International Monetary Fund announced today they would draw up a deal for assistance worth $14-18bn to Ukraine over the next two years but only if they remove the subsidy on gas which will not go down well with voters.

On the ground the police are starting to become visible once again, but there are checkpoints manned by the police or military or more worryingly armed guys dressed in black with no insignia and tank movements in the east are making a mess of the already pretty poor roads.

Not much has changed for us on a practical level, shops still open with plenty of food, kids still go to the play park, sun keeps shining but I can’t help feeling that our time in Ukraine is going to be over at least for some time.

In my opinion if the new interim government can follow through the massive task it has set itself of ridding Ukraine of institutional corruption and if Russia will leave Ukraine alone then Ukraine might just might start punching on the global economy somewhere near its true potential.  That is a couple of big ifs.

Spring planting is underway with 1.5 million hectares of spring barley and 100,000 ha of spring wheat in the ground.  Sunflower planting in the south of the country has just started with 47,000 ha of the predicted 4.7 million hectares sown and 63,000 ha of an estimated 370,000 ha sugar beet.

Nitrogen fertiliser has started to go on to the overwintered crops but the question is how much?

A 20% drop in commodity prices just before 2013 harvest means many businesses are short of working capital.  The political unrest has made credit for seeds, chemicals and fuel harder to secure and when you do it is more expensive.  Fluctuations in the exchange rate have in effect increased the cost of inputs by 30%.  There is precious little inward investment as everyone is waiting to see how the situation plays out before risking funds in country.

All in all there’s not much cash to go farming with so I am expecting plantings to be down this year and what is planted receiving less fertiliser with a corresponding drop in yield.

To give some light at the end of the tunnel prices might go up by harvest but the access routes to export markets might just end up being under the control of Russia.

Sometimes its darkest just before dawn or just before it goes pitch black, let’s hope it’s the former.

So, just how dry is it in Ukraine?

The markets are starting to wake up the the idea that it might be pretty dry in Ukraine.

While there is a risk that Russia might invade further in to Ukraine adding to market uncertainty, for now I'm going to focus on what I do understand; the weather.

It is dry in Ukraine and the story started back in December.

Ukraine had very little snow fall over the winter and the lack of snow melt left the soils dry.

The lack of snow cover also left soils exposed to drying winds.

Temperatures have been above average and this has encouraged winter crops such as barley, wheat and oilseed rape to break dormancy early and start drawing water up through the roots and out through the stomata.

This is set against a backdrop of low rain fall so far this spring and the published soil moisture data and walking dry fields back this up.

While crops are not at wilting point they are starting to work very hard to suck up water and the nutrients contained within and this will be having an effect on plant vigour.  Imagine drinking through a restricted straw and you get the picture.

This will be felt more by shallow rooted cereal crops than the deeper rooted oilseed rape and will now be affecting germination and establishment of recently planted spring cereals.

All in all the situation is clearly illustrated in the chart above which shows the (lack of) soil moisture.

A worrying picture considering we are at the end of March.


Finding myself with a bit of time on my hands this afternoon I thought it would be fun to collate all the satellite pictures from Ukraine this winter to see if it showed the snow story any better which I did and you can find here.

It probably shows the limit of satellite imagery (or at least my understanding of it) as cloud cover obscures a lot of images, but if you study it closely and peak through the clouds it does show how late and patchy the snow was and how early in the year it disappeared.

Well it does to my mind anyway.

Ukraine in Turmoil

I am sitting in my office glued to the images and tweets trying to decide at what point I should load the family up in to the car and head for the Polish border.

The revolution in Ukraine has been going on since November but events escalated yesterday with up to 70 confirmed deaths and that number is creeping upwards.  Protesters and police are being shot at and people are being killed.

Earlier this week various government offices and police stations where I live had been ransacked and set on fire, the regional governor was dragged from office and forced to resign and protesters have gathered in force on the main street.

My neighbours tell me hundreds if not thousands of guns and ammunition has been stolen from police and militia headquarters which begs the question, who has them now?  Last night we heard what we hoped was the sound of fireworks but I now believe to be the sound of explosions coming from weapons and ammunition that was set on fire either deliberately or accidentally.

I drove around town last night to get a feel for the situation and its nervous and getting increasingly nervous with each day.

There are road blocks by both protesters and police, people from both sides are being detained and disappeared, many, many people have been beaten senseless, trains and buses have stopped running and the metro in Kiev has been closed for two days.

The center of Kiev is where the main battle is taking place and current photographs show a scene like something out of a film except it’s not a film. 

I was at the center of the demonstrations in Kiev last Saturday and the atmosphere while tense was calm with music, dancing, singing and cooking outside.  It’s hard to reconcile what I saw then with the images of war there now.

The rumours and stories are flying around with each hour; petrol stations are closing; people are queuing up at the banks; border crossing are blocked; titushki (hired government thugs) are breaking into private property, stealing and beating people; the internet and phones might go off at any minute and so on.

As yet the martial law hasn't been enforced but we are in a de facto state of emergency, the next big question is will the army come out of barracks and if so which side will they take; are we looking at a civil war.

Slava Ukraina! 

Weather update

Still no snow and when I went for my run this morning it felt more like April than January.

To support my observations here are two charts.

The first clearly and graphically shows the lack of snow cover compared to last year.

By now it would be normal to see a 20cm blanket of snow covering most of Ukraine.

The second chart while less dramatic does show how average temperatures have consistently been above normal since mid October through to December.

And I can confirm are still high through week 2 of January.

Dry and unseasonably warm is how the latest USDA weekly weather and crop update succinctly puts it.

It might go one of two ways.

A rapid drop in temperatures before snow fall with crop damage across wide regions of Ukraine and subsequent reports of catastrophic famine or it snows quickly and there is no problem.

My feeling is the issue will be much more agronomic and subtle than just death by cold.

Fungal diseases will have continued to develop later into the winter than is normal and will have an insidious effect on wheat and oilseed rape in particular.

This will have weakened plants so when temperatures do drop these plants will be less able to withstand the cold and we will see a higher than average level of winterkill as a result.

Furthermore there will be a high inoculm loading come the spring resulting in quicker and earlier disease thresholds being reached.

The same will hold true for insect pests; lifecycles have continued later in to the year than usual and base line populations will be that much higher at the start of the season.

Best make sure that sprayer is primed and ready to go come April.

Happy Christmas Ukraine

Yesterday was Christmas Day in Ukraine, Happy Christmas Ukraine.

According to tradition people tuck in to a 12 course vegetarian supper as the first stars appear in the sky.

Carol singers, Christmas trees and decorations, street entertainers, mulled wine and sausages all make the town center a very festive and fun place to be at the moment the only thing missing is snow.

It's like spring at the moment so much so that I am sitting in the office as I write with the window wide open.

One of the most frequent questions I have about Ukraine is what is the winter like?  Well normally it is cold with lots of snow and ice, blue skies and freezing temperatures and it’s wonderful.  

No such thing as bad weather just the wrong clothes; coats, hats, scarves and gloves and off you go.

But winter will come soon, snow will fall and it will get cold.  

The issue we have is will sufficient snow fall before the temperatures plummet?

That insulating blanket of snow is crucial in protecting winter crops; I have seen temperatures drop to minus 30 degrees Celsius with no adverse effects on oilseed rape and wheat safely tucked up under half a meter of snow.

The other issue is will all this mild weather and late arrival of cold allow for greater development of phoma and light leaf spot?  Theoretically yes which could impact on next seasons oilseed rape yield.

I am watching the weather reports currently coming out of the US and Canada and can’t help thinking we are going to get that as it travels across the pond?  

My feeling is we are going to get a big shock fairly soon and winter will hang around well in to the spring with knock on effect on planting and fertilising.

But that is later, for now there is nothing we can do on the farm so time to chillax hopefully without too much of the chill.

Farming through a revolution

"What do you want to do today kids, swimming, play park or do you want to go to the revolution?"

Not the normal Saturday morning family breakfast time negotiation but it is what I found myself saying last weekend.

Ukraine hit the headlines this week as a demonstration turned in to civil unrest and then an attempt to replace the government.

The spark was an abrupt about face by the Ukrainian government signing an EU Association Agreement that would have paved the way to closer EU integration and arguably social and economic improvements. 

Instead Ukraine chose to sign a free trade agreement with Russia much to the obvious delight of Vladimir Putin who basked in the afterglow of sticking one up the EU.

It didn’t last long.  Demonstrators quickly took to the streets in Kiev and other towns to show their frustration at seemingly another lost opportunity for Ukraine.

In Kiev crowds gathered around the location of the previous revolution and early on Saturday morning when you had the feeling the whole thing would peter out in the cold winter, special forces stormed the site and started beating people bloody with batons, boots and fists.

This had the effect you might imagine, people went nuts, by Saturday evening massive crowds had gathered, there were running street battles, at one point they tried to topple Lenin’s statue, social media was buzzing with evidence of state sanctioned violence, the worlds leaders condemned the actions, barricades were erected and it all started to get a bit serious.

On Monday the government avoided a vote of no confidence then seemed to grow in confidence and started demanding the demonstrators disbanded and vacate city hall they had taken over as an impromptu headquarters.

As I write the situation appears calm but you do have the feeling that it could gain traction and go one of several ways.

In the meantime I have been acting like an unofficial journo as media groups contacted me (me!) looking for eyewitness reports from the front lines, which I duly obliged.

Is this affecting farming?  Not at the moment, all winter crops are currently entering dormancy as the temperatures drop, this morning saw the first bit of proper snow of the season and harvest is officially all but done and breaking records.  Exports might slow up if events turn in to wider actions such as national strikes but at this moment I don’t see anything that suggests beyond the main cities it’s anything other than keep calm and carry on.

I’m proud to say we unanimously chose to attend the revolution and the kids loved it.