The Institute for Agricultural Market
Studies (IKAR) pegged their latest Russian wheat forecast at a broad 73-82MMT
with 32-36MMT exports in 2018/19.To be fair, until we get an indication of spring wheat plantings when the season gets underway, none of us really have a scooby doo, but there are a couple of interesting things I heard on the grapevine this week that might make those forecasts on the optimistic side.
A group of Russian agronomists based in the south have been
overheard complaining about a lack of soil moisture saying that when they dig
down a metre or so the soil is bone dry.
It was dry in the south in the late autumn and early winter and snow
fall has been limited which makes me think there might be something in this but then again, a Russian agronomist digging a hole?
The other snippet I’m hearing is a lack of cash might limit
how much farmers can plant; exporting wheat at competitive prices is all well
and good but if it leaves you short to pay for diesel and seed for the
following season it could turn out to be a short-term benefit.
I’m reliably informed of a couple of farms in Russia who have
been asking around to see if anyone wants to crop some of their land this season as
they are short on roubles and finance from Russian banks is all but none
existent so there might be something in this.
Watch this space.