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Positive
outlook
Warmer-than-usual
thermal conditions and infrequent rains facilitated the successful ending of
the spring sowing campaign.
The development
of winter crops is advanced by 1-2 weeks.
Biomass
accumulation of winter wheat is close to normal in the Central Okrug, but it
is promisingly positive in the Southern Okrug.
The
rainfall deficiency has led to an accelerated decrease of the soil moisture
under spring crops, primarily in the Near Volga Okrug.
The period
of review started and ended colder than usual, but from 10 May until 10 June
daily temperatures typically fluctuated well above the average, resulting in a positive
thermal anomaly of between +2 and +4°C for the period of review in the central
and southern agricultural areas of Russia.
Plentiful
precipitation (60-100 mm) was experienced between the Baltic Sea and the Black
Sea, along the western border of Russia.
The rains
during the last days of May in the Central Okrug were especially beneficial for
spring and summer cereals, and favourably replenished the below-average soil
moisture levels, just before the flowering phenophase of winter cereals.
In
contrast, scarce precipitation was observed in the wide southern areas of the
Near Volga and Southern Federal Okrugs.
The Kalmykiya,Tatarstan
and Bashkorstan Republics as well as the Orenburgskaya, Saratovskaya,
Volgogradskaya, Tambovskaya and Astrakhanskaya Oblasts experienced a precipitation
deficit, though some rainfall arrived in mid-June and partially eased the
situation.
The mild
weather conditions accelerated the development of winter crops by 1-2 weeks.
In the
first dekad of June, winter cereals started flowering in the Black Soil Region,
and have typically entered the grain-filling stage in the Southern Oblast.
Our crop simulations
indicate good total and storage organ biomass accumulation in the Southern District,
mainly in Rostovskaya Oblast, Krasnodarskiy and Stavropolskiy Krays.
In the
Black Soil Region, biomass accumulation is near or slightly above average.
The rainfall
deficiency in the Near Volga Okrug has been unfavourable for the spring crops,
but soil moisture reserves have probably been sufficient to avoid significant
water stress so far.