EU always do that

The EU ambassador for Ukraine, Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira has been fairly vocal of late with refreshingly direct comments about government policy and decision making.

Generally the government doesn't respond well to criticism acting like a petulant teenager with rebuffles and mumbled denials while shuffling its feet and starring intently at the ground.

"Ukraine has, regrettably, a dismal record on the business climate," Jose said at a meeting for business men and government officials.

"President Yanukovich's pledges, since he was elected, that vertical power was necessary to fight corruption and create an attractive business climate have regrettably produced no results," he lamented.

Ukraine's foreign ministry said it was "surprised" by Jose's comments.

Ukraine ranked 152 out of 183 economies in the World Bank survey Doing Business 2012.  It was 149 the previous year and according to the WB has one of the worst tax systems in the world.

It's a bit like saying it was "surprised" that it snowed this winter.

They think it's all over...it is now

Congratulations to Liverpool who lifted the Carling Cup late last night after a dramatic match that went to extra time and penalties. 

Liverpool must be over the moon.

Commiserations to Cardiff who played a blinder and must be sick as a parrot (may be I should branch out in to sport writing).

I didn't see the game as it was only available on the BBC; I did listen to it on scouse radio over the internet.  Why is it next to impossible to watch major sporting events despite the overwhelming platforms to show them?

Weather warms then cools

We saw a gradual thawing last week with rain speeding up the melting process.

Over the weekend temperatures dropped again - my thermometer is currently reading minus 6 at six in the morning - with snow flurries.  Nice word that, flurries.

The concern now is how those plants that are poking out of the snow and are exposed to the elements will stand up to cold weather.  My instinct is probably OK if it doesn't get too cold and for too long; forecast is for better weather by Wednesday.

February grain exports

February grain exports will be 1.5-1.6MMT, said Nikolai from the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. 

Apparently the low rates of grain exports are associated with difficult and specific weather conditions in the Black Sea, the wrong sort of snow and leaves on the track that hinder the shipment of wheat but not corn.

Is too much sugar a bad thing?

The Min of Ag seem to think so; they have just announced plans to reduce the sugar quota by 1.5% or 0.027MMT to 1.883MMT for the 2012/2013MY.

They claim that will be more than enough satisfy Ukraine's decayed tooth of 38kg per capita and still leave 107KMT for other needs.

Last year Ukraine produced 2.33MMT of sugar, up 50.5% on the previous year.

Vodka Mixer

Yuri the bear spotted earlier today entertaining the kids at a local shopping centre.

Harmless and endearing it was too; my little lad was in awe of the "giant man in a bear suit".

Except he is advertising a local well known strip joint and poker club.

Hmmm...

Mind how you go now

Travelling around Ukraine doesn't get any easier in the winter but at least the snow fills in the pot holes.

Walking around is equally treacherous.

In the last three weeks we have seen three relegated to the injury bench; Sandy popped out for a pint of milk and came back two weeks later with a replacement hip; Georg slipped off the kerb and slipped his shoulder out of it's socket; I came off least damaged but continue to limp around on a bruised ankle.

It's a dangerous place is Ukraine, not for the weak, grrr!

Crop condition put in to context #2

Agritel have said "the impact of the cold wave is still difficult to assess."

Truth is we never really know until the snow clears, the first application of nitrogen is applied and the sun warms everything up a bit. 

Even then it is a long way to go until harvest and the stuff is safely in the shed.

5.0 million hectares of maize is being suggested in Ukraine this year.

Crop condition put in to context

There are four oblasts or regional divisions in Ukraine were the crop condition has been identified as being "of concern". 

These are Odessa, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia; cold temperatures with no or little snow cover will have done for many over wintered wheat and oilseed rape crops.

As I have mentioned on numerous occasions reliable statistics in Ukraine are as rare as a none white premiership football manager but my sources indicate that these four oblasts out 28 account for over 20% of the arable area.

If reports are correct regarding winter kill in these regions then Ukraine looks to heading for a significant drop in wheat and oilseed rape production for 2012.

Maize seed is getting hard to come by so I think we can see how 2011 is starting to stack up.

Michaels Foot

Slipped on ice this afternoon. 

Actually it was a plastic bag on top of ice, a lethal combination, down like a sack of potatoes.

Honestly I thought I had broken my leg, ankle, knee the whole lot!  I was expecting to find bone sticking out and my boot filling with blood. 

As you can see by my x-ray it wasn't broken.

Say what you like about the Ukrainian health service and I often do - remind me to elaborate on my near death, three operation, seven holes and only one appendix story sometime - I was x-rayed with minutes of arriving at A&E.

Well done chaps!

Wheat and oilseed rape update

Here is a photograph of winter wheat and oilseed rape taken yesterday from 30,000 feet somewhere between Kiev and Lviv.

Admittedly it is difficult to see the crop beneath a blanket of snow but that doesn't stop everyman and his dog taking a punt on what the level of winter damage might be.

Many of last winters doom and gloom reports suggested similar death rates to this year yet we went on to harvest some pretty respectable crops.

My advice; treat crop reports with caution.

Take note Heathrow

Lviv airport 6:30am this morning, minus 18, a foot of snow, the plane leaves on time!

I've just heard...

Roy Hodgson IS in the frame for the England managers job!

Back in the USSR

Everyone drives like they are on acid and it smells of soup, borsch to be precise. 

Ukrainian fertiliser prices are increasing while everywhere else they are falling; Syngenta are targeting "higher prices for 2012"; Ukrainian government continue to make noises about export restrictions; dry autumn delays winter crop development, recent cold weather makes what did grow look decidedly risky;

The year has only just started and it's already looking gloomy.  It could be worse;  Roy Hodgson could be in the frame for the England managers job.

The weather in Ukraine...

...is very cold , fortunately I'm in the UK at the moment where I stumbled across this war trophy in the grounds of the local museum. 

The cold in Ukraine has coincided with a lot of snow cover so most plants should be OK assuming temperatures lift to a more seasonal minus 10 some time soon.

Cold in itself is not an issue so long as there is some insulating snow but much of Ukraine's winter plantings went in to the winter in a weak and underdeveloped state so they will be at more risk. 

The Min of Ag is suggesting losses up to 35% which I think is high, 20% would be my estimate.

Normal service will resume shortly...

After a couple of emails concerned that I might have come to a sticky end in rural Ukraine or the secret service had finally caught up with me I thought I should post to let all and sundry know that Ukraine agri blogging will resume shortly.

It's been a busy time with lots of agri-business stuff happening all over Ukraine and Russia, interesting times to be farming in the workers paradise.

Watch this space.

Cheers.

Oilseed rape continues to grow

Roots developing nicely, leaves disease free, patchy emergence, generally OK.

I have several reports from Ukraine and Russia of very patchy emergence with crops that will need replanting with something else in the spring. 

I put this down to localised showers over the last month, or more accurately no localised showers resulting in dry seed failing to germinate or emerge late.

What I have seen is in good condition; minor grazing and a few mealy cabbage aphids but nothing significant and low disease pressure with healthy looking plants. 

There is a question mark on some of the later emerged crops as to wether they will put on sufficient growth ahead of the winter but time will tell.

Maize rallies

The price moved up a tad on the back of the PM (finally) ratifying the cancellation of export duties. 

Maize currently trading at just over 1,400UAH (125EUR) with a feeling that we might see more to come as exports pull the price north. 

Harvest going well with good weather conditions helping things along.

Maize

Maize harvest is progressing nicely with moisture around 25% and the settled period forecast for next week will continue to help things along. 

The price has dropped recently as you would expect at harvest and with talk of a bumper crop in Ukraine and elsewhere I don't see this changing much in the short term. 

Frosty morning

Ice on the car this morning, chilly but sunny, one of those days when it's a pleasure to out walking across fields of wheat and rape.

Oilseed rape does surprisingly well in the Ukraine climate.  Many observers suggested it would not be able to survive the winter but it seems to do OK most years.

Having said that the last really strong winter was 2003/04 so we must be overdue for another one some time soon.

Winter arrived

The seasons in Ukraine go something like summer, summer, summer, autumn, winter, winter, winter, spring, summer.

Winter arrived at the weekend with sleet and snow flurries and temperatures just in to the positive.

Not a bad thing as it will encourage plants to harden off ahead of the real winter and slow down a few pests; namely aphids and sawfly.

Temperatures are forecast to increase over the week which will be welcomed by late emerged oilseed rape and late sown wheat.

Pick 'n' mix metaphors

Plenty of comments on the Tymoshenko case, I particularly like this one from John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com:

“…some democratic lipstick whitewash will need to be applied to the Ukrainian judicial pig in an attempt to convert it into a judicial silk purse…”

Decisive government in action

After creating a grain embargo for the best part of the year then implementing widely criticised export duties, then suggesting they would cancel them, then not cancelling them, then saying they will stay the Ministry of Agriculture finally dropped grain export duties…but not on barley.

Can anyone spot the agenda?

The people have spoken

Well 339 people have via a Kyiv Post online poll and the majority are in favour of Yulia Tymoshenko doing porridge.

To keep it in to perspective and to remind ourselves why polls are inherently dubious at best; that’s 252 people.

Four people thought seven years was not harsh enough.  Remember Nick Leeson?  He only got 6½ years* and he cost Bearings Bank $1.4 billion!

*He eventually did 3½ years but it was in Singapore

Wheat and oilseed rape

Dry weather during August and September meant plantings progressed unabated but emergence has been slow.

Recent rains will help wheat but probably too late for some of the more backward oilseed rape crops.

Early maize harvest results

Picking up on maize yields from around the regions and they are good.

I hesitate to put an a figure on it as I don’t want to be the one responsible for a bear market and there is still a lot of maize waiting to be cut and the weather forecast isn’t brilliant and the government still has time to cock it up and this is farming.

Progress is now behind you

Ukraine is back in the spotlight this week for all the wrong reasons with the jailing of Yulia Tymoshenko.

For those of you that don’t know, she was leader of the opposition who has just been locked up for seven years for gas deals she presided over when she was in power.

The US said they are deeply disappointed, the EU said they are deeply disappointed, Russia said they are deeply disappointed, the UK is deeply concerned, Canada is troubled, Czech has condemned the outcome, Italy expressed dissapointment, NATO is dissapointed and I’m sure many others will continue to express the depths of their feelings to varying degrees.

Not half as disappointed as Tymoshenko I suspect.

I further suspect that Yanukovych will appear to bow to international pressure and magnanimously release her after a short period but maintain her criminal conviction thereby making her ineligible to hold office and effectively removing any threat to power for the next ten years.

Deeply disappointing indeed.

Sunflowers

A three year high of plantings and production has done nothing to put growers off planting with the parts of Ukraine this year literally wall to wall sunflowers.
 
The price has taken a bit of a tumble in recent weeks with the domestic market dropping 20 to 30%.

Is this a long term trend as a result of oversupply or a temporary blip as crushers are now at capacity?

Aren't sunflowers brilliant?

Early harvest results coming in for sunflowers and they are good.

My contacts from around the regions are reporting first fields cut at 2.5MT/HA off the combine so probably nearer 2.0MT/HA when dried, cleaned and Yuri has expropriated his share. 

Still possible to make money at that. 

Price is currently 4,000UAH/MT (360EUR/MT) with direct growing costs of around 1,800UAH/HA (160EUR/HA) means a gross margin of 6,200UAH/HA (560EUR/HA).

Caught by the fuzz!

Do you remember the Thames Valley coppers sledging down a hill on their riot shields last year?  They got a bit of a rollicking for that I seem to remember.
Well here's a couple of Kiev's finest spotted earlier this week making an absolute meal of trying to knock apples out of a tree while on duty and carrying side arms. 

Watch out for the fat one looking around suspiciously as he trousers an apple.

Priceless.

Another poll from the ministry of "Stating the bleedin' obvious"

OK so not a ministry but a toothless quango has just produced results from a poll that suggest over half of Ukrainians distrusts authority.

The majority said they are not satisfied with the political situation (70%), the economic situation (87%), or the foreign policy (46%).

Among the country's most serious problems, those polled named the police (100%), inflation (74%), poverty (54%), unemployment (53%), corruption (49%), general economic problems (32%), political instability (20%) and external debt (11%).

Corruption only 49% eh?  Something fishy going on there.

ps I made the police one up.

Maize harvest

Maize yields bounce about with a 40% difference in yields for the larger agri-businesses last year.

There are a lot of predictions about for a bumper harvest this year and some companies will be counting on it. 

I am a little more reserved.

Planting time was very dry and crops struggled to get established with many plants emerging late and having a pretty hard time of it. 

Rain in June allowed crops to put on a massive growth spurt and they shot for the sky producing a lot of biomass and very impressive looking crops. 

On closer inspection a lot of these impressive 3m tall crops have produced one cob with a low numbers of small grains.

Time will tell but I wouldn't bet my house on it just yet.

Sunflower harvest

Has started in the south and east and is imminent elsewhere.

Sunflower is a fairly robust crop and I expect yields to be consistent once results start coming in.

Last year there was only a 5% yield difference amongst the larger agri-businesses.

As you would expect at the start of harvest prices dipped to a low of 3,500UAH/MT but lifted slightly this week to 4,000UAH/MT.

Winter oilseed rape plantings

WOSR should be in the ground by now, any later and plants struggle to develop sufficiently large enough to cope with the winter.

Rather worryingly for the Ministry of Agriculture, they claim only 77% of "the target" has been planted. 

Less worryingly for everyone else, the Ministry target of 950,000ha planted is a work of fiction and most sensible growers will have completed plantings by now.

We've got the builders in!

No, not a euphemism, we really do have the builders in. 

We have just moved from a hugely congested and ever so slightly radioactive Kiev to a much fresher and all round brand new apartment in Lviv. 

First night woke up to a massive flood in the kitchen; second night Noah from down stairs was at the door bleating on about a flood.

Today the builders have arrived and are currently dismantling the bidet (I thought it was a drinking fountain!) and destroying the newly minted bathroom searching for the source of the flood.

My mate Richard from the US, with some considerable experience of this part of the world once said to me that "seemingly Ukrainians can't even put two pipes together without them leaking." 

Prophetic words indeed Richard.

Maize oddity

We are seeing multiple ear syndrome were multiple cobs form at the same nodes as in the picture, right.

The cause is thought to be related to shock at early formation caused by cold weather and genetic with some varieties displaying more of a predisposition to the abnormality.

Anyone experienced this before?

I went on holiday

Sitting on a Wizz Air flight last week when the lady in front decided that it was time to reduce what little leg room I had even further. 

I wouldn't have minded if she was sleeping but no, she wanted to lie back and relax while reading her book. 

Meanwhile I had 10cm in which to entertain a 6 month old baby. 

Also I had to bribe passport control 60 quid to let us out of the country. 

Here's a free tip for those looking to visit Ukraine in the near future; do not under any circumstances fly in to or out of the city airport, it is staffed by professional thieves and vagabonds.

94% of statistics are made up on the spot

Agricultural Policy and Food Minister Mykola Prysiazhniuk has said that the grain harvest is all but over with 94% of crops threshed.

Mykola should get out of Kiev more often.

I have spent the last few days driving all over Ukraine and combines are still very much in abundance.

How long will it take to load?

Ever bought grain from Ukraine and wondered why it took so long for it to be delivered? 

This picture might go some way to answering that question.

This is fairly typical and goes someway to illustrate the not insignificant investment required to bring the industry up to speed.

Harvest update

Harvest is a bit stop start with the odd shower slowing things down but not to the point that we would call it a wash out. Not yet anyway.

Reported yields are variable but seem on the upper side so we might see a half decent crop this year and the price is not looking too shabby either.

What effect the newly imposed export tax has we will have to wait and see but Black Sea grain is currently priced keenly or is that just all the spare old grain they have suddenly found in Russia?