Amid tension in Ukraine, positive change sought for farmers

Here is a copy of an article I'm quoted in posted by the editor of Grainews Lisa Guenther.

As seeding progresses in Ukraine, farmers are eyeing input prices, markets and weather, just as their counterparts do in other parts of the world.  But Ukraine’s farmers have the added worry of whether conflict in the eastern part of the country will boil over.

Last week Russian and Ukrainian officials signed an accord agreeing to back away from further violence and calling for demonstrators to leave public buildings in eastern Ukraine.  But three pro-Russia separatists were slain in a shootout in the eastern city of Slavyansk over the weekend, and the bodies of two people allegedly abducted by pro-Russian activists were discovered Tuesday.  Ukraine forces on Thursday reportedly killed up to five pro-Moscowseparatists.

Both sides lay blame for the violence on the other’s doorstep; Russian President Vladimir Putin most recently warned of “consequences” if Kiev used its army against its own people.  The U.S. is now deploying NATO troops to Eastern Europe.

Mike Lee, an agribusiness consultant based in the western Ukraine city of Lviv, said the conflicts have polarized people.  Lee is originally from the United Kingdom but he’s also worked in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia.  He now works with private investors setting up farms in Ukraine.

It’s difficult to know whether Russia is stirring up trouble in eastern Ukraine, or whether the separatists are local people unsure about legislators in Kiev, he said.

“In all conflicts, the first casualty is the truth, and it’s very difficult to actually find out what’s going on. Time will tell, I suppose,” said Lee.

Crop season already difficult

Lee said Lviv is quiet right now but the conflict in the east is affecting agricultural production throughout Ukraine.  “I do see the inflation and exchange rate having a big impact on an already difficult season.” [Related story]

Commodity prices collapsed after the 2013 harvest, Lee said.  “That collapse has made a big hole in everybody’s cash position.  And cash is king.”

Ukraine’s planting season is 20 days ahead of what it was last year.  There’s an urgency to get the crop in the ground, but Lee said he thinks “people are struggling.”

Lee expects to see more land left fallow and less corn in the ground this spring.

“The last three years I’ve had my suppliers on the phone at this time of year screaming at me that supplies of (maize) seeds have run down,” he said.

But the phones have been quiet this year, he said.  “So that tells me that there’s a surplus of maize seed to go in the ground.”

Gas prices are also climbing, which will turn maize drying from a costly exercise to a “prohibitively costly exercise,” said Lee.

Fertilizer is available, although it’s more expensive.  How much fertilizer will be applied to seeded acres is a question mark, Lee said.

On the positive side, Ukraine has been getting much-needed rain recently.  Spring cereals and rapeseed have been planted and maize planting is gaining momentum, Lee said.

“If we don’t get a wash-out through the rest of this month, into next month, I could see crops going into the ground in good time, in good fashion,” said Lee.

“How they perform after that with the amount of fertilizer that may or may not be applied, we’ll see.”

Longer-term view in ag

Lee said there is a group of legislators in Kiev who are “trying to bring in sensible changes to legislation.”

For example, the Ukraine government recently announced land leases would be extended “which on the face of it is a good thing because it encourages a bit more of a longer-term view, which is what agriculture needs,” said Lee.

There is a moratorium on selling agricultural land in Ukraine.  Lee said expectations that the government will eventually lift the moratorium have created a culture of short-term rental agreements “where landlords are looking to have a short lease because they want to be able to sell at the first opportunity.”

Renters have first refusal for extending lease agreements or land sales once they’ve started renting a chunk of land, said Lee.  But renters “find it difficult to invest long-term in the land because leases are relatively short.”

A working group with Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food is also considering loosening regulations around importing plant protection products by moving to a licensing system, a move Lee said could significantly boost wheat yields in years rather than decades.

Right now Ukrainian farmers can’t pick up the latest chemicals that are available to their Western European counterparts, Lee said.  Generic chemicals are also available from third-party suppliers, but Lee said farmers who buy from them run the risk of buying adulterated products.

“So while there is a range of chemicals to use, it isn't the sort of full armoury that we can go at, I presume, because there isn't a big enough demand to bring in some of those more expensive chemicals,” said Lee.

“And the legislation and the process are so cumbersome and expensive that it’s not worthwhile.”

Lee said changing the legislation would “open up the market to allow the import of a wider range of chemicals into Ukraine.”

Other changes planned, or recently made, to Ukraine’s ag policy and legislation include cancelling grain and granary certification, developing the organic industry for export to the European Union, new lending support through the National Bank, simplifying agricultural land allocation, and renewing the Deputy Prime Minister position of the agrarian complex.

Lisa Guenther is a field editor for Grainews at Livelong, Sask.  Follow her at @LtoG on Twitter.

Mike Lee blogs about farming in Ukraine; you can also follow him on Twitter at@AgronomyUkraine

Ukraine crop update

Winter oilseed rape starting to flower as nitrogen, sunshine and warmer weather have taken effect.

There has been a no significant winter kill so almost all plants have survived giving some pretty decent if not slightly thick plant stands.

Recent cool temperatures slowed growth down a little which might not be a bad thing but caused no damage.

Although it is a long way to go before harvest the crop at this stage looks very good.

Winter wheat is in good condition and now at GS30-31 (pseudo stem erect, 1^st node detectable) which is what I think they call jointing in the US.

Call me fussy but I do like the simplicity and accuracy of the decimal code growth stage system, makes perfect sense to me.

While I’m at it all decimal makes sense; kilograms or litres per hectare are easily divisible, how on earth do you calculate half rate of 3 pints per acre then decide how much to put in the tank?

And what is a bushel all about?

Soil temperatures are now warm enough for sunflower planting to be well underway with corn and soya getting started further south.

Wishing you and Ukraine a peaceful Easter.

Crop monitoring in Europe

MARS Bulletin Vol. 22 No. 4 (2014), you can find this and previous reports here.

If you’re not familiar with the Monitoring of Agriculture with Remote Sensing (MARS) project, it started in 1988 and was designed to use space technologies to provide independent, timely information on crop areas and yields.

It is a brilliant EU project but I can’t help thinking it would be added to if you had confirmation reports from boots on the ground agronomists.  

Like, for example, me.

The summary is that well-advanced winter crops would now welcome rain.  Winter crops are strongly advanced from western to eastern Europe, positive biomass accumulation in the Mediterranean countries with unfavourable canopy development in eastern Ukraine and central Turkey.

Here’s what the latest MARS bulletin has to say about Ukraine.

The map displays the differences between the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) observed during the period 21-31 March 2014 and the long-term average (LTA, 1998-2012) for the same period.  Essentially how developed the crop canopy is.

In Ukraine, persistent warm temperatures determined high crop growth rates during March.

In central regions (e.g. Poltavs’ka), increased crop demands for water are not met due to the large precipitation deficit built up over the past months.

Exceptionally dry conditions may affect crop growth.

After a mild and dry winter, March also remained milder than usual, and rainfall was sparse.

The exceptionally dry conditions in central Ukraine may affect yields of winter cereals.

Winter wheat yield forecasts are below the 5-year average.

Meteorological conditions in March followed the tendency observed during this winter.

Average temperatures remained milder than usual, from 3°C above average in eastern regions to 5°C in north-western regions.

Rainfall remained far below the average, and the six-month period October-March is one of the driest recorded in our database.

The driest conditions were observed in central regions (Cherkas’ka, Kirovohrads’ka, Mykolayivs’ka) which received 50% of the average cumulated rainfall from October to March, and 40% of the average cumulated rainfall since 1 March.

According to our model, winter crop development is 20 days in advance compared to an average year, which implies that leaf area and crop water demand are also unusually high for this time of the year.

Biomass accumulation of winter cereals will be negatively affected unless soil water levels are significantly replenished.

The emergence of spring crops may also be impacted by these exceptionally dry conditions.

Are we seeing the first real shoots of growth in Ukraine?

As Ukraine appears to teeter on the brink of civil war and uncertainty it’s worth noting that this month alone the following announcements and changes to agricultural related legislation and policy have been made.

  

I'm no expert and I have yet to study the detail but on the face of it they all seem positive, sensible and for the general good.

I get the impression there are lot of people working away in the background trying to effect real change for the nation; may be this is what the revolution was really all about.

• EU trade preferences for Ukrainian exporters come into force;
• Ukraine to introduce the minimum term on the agricultural land lease;
• Ukraine: Ministry of Agrarian Policy to deregulate the market of plant protecting agents;
• Ukraine canceled grain and granary certification;
• Ukraine to develop organic commodities production and exports to the EU;
• Ukraine: National Bank provided a new way for lending support;
• Ukraine: position of the Deputy Prime-Minister of the agrarian complex to be renewed;
• Ukraine simplified the procedure of agricultural land allocation.

Source: APK-Inform.

Latest USDA weather update

Volume 101, No. 15, full report available here.

Early-week cold gave way to more seasonable temperatures, while unfavorable dryness persisted in parts of Ukraine.

Temperatures during the beginning of the period dropped as low as -8°C across central and eastern Ukraine and -5°C in Russia’s Southern and North Caucasus Districts.  

Winter wheat in the coldest areas was likely in the tillering to early jointing stages (G.S. 30-31) of development, and consequently could withstand temperatures as low as -9°C.  However, more advanced winter grains in Ukraine may have been susceptible to burnback in the coldest locales.  By week’s end, temperatures rebounded into the teens and lower 20s (°C), mitigating any further freeze threat.  

More importantly, the first significant rain of the spring (locally up to 25 mm) arrived in Ukraine, providing much-needed soil moisture for vegetative winter crops and recently-planted small grains.  Despite the rain, longer term deficits persists, with north-central portions of Ukraine - a key corn area - reporting less than 50 percent of normal precipitation over the past 90 days.  

In contrast, additional light to moderate rain and wet snow (2-20 mm liquid equivalent) in Russia, Belarus, and Moldova maintained adequate soil moisture for winter wheat development and upcoming summer crop planting.

Ukraine farmers finish spring planting

Here's a copy of my article in this weeks Farmers Weekly Interactive written by Phil Case.

Spring drilling has got off to a flying start in Ukraine amid a growing sense of optimism for the future, says expatriate agronomist Mike Lee.

Following an unusually mild late winter, drilling started mid-March – up to a month earlier than in previous years.

All the spring peas, barley, wheat and oats are pretty much planted across the country, which remains under threat of invasion from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, according to reports in the Western press.

Now farmers are starting to plant the main spring crops of sunflowers, maize and soya, says Mr Lee.

“The spring planting season is very early this year. We have had a mild season and we are three to four weeks ahead of previous years,” he explains.

This season, spring plantings in Ukraine are forecast to be 9-10% down on last year.

A lack of cash, increased credit costs and the threat of war hanging over the country means most growers are adopting a cautious approach.

“Last year, commodity prices dropped significantly. Many people were growing maize as a way of trying to be profitable,” says Mr Lee.

“But that hasn't worked. People are short of cash. On top of that, the heightened war risk is making credit expensive.”

Diesel and fertiliser are the two big costs, but farmers are also trying to cut their wage and chemical bills.

Spring seed and chemicals are available to buy, but companies are typically charging 20-30% for farmers to buy products on credit.

As a result, farmers are trying to cut costs by buying generic chemicals and local seed.

Inputs costs are broadly similar to those of the UK and western Europe, but rented land is a lot cheaper, at £35-40/ha. However, prices are generally 20-30% lower than world market prices, because crops are mostly exported.

Owing to the dry field conditions, farmers who have previously deep cultivated will be reaping the benefits as roots grow deeper into moisture, says Mr Lee.

About half of the cropping in Ukraine is row cropping. And farmers generally use big drills, such as the Horsch Pronto, to drill cereals and Gaspardo precision drills for sunflowers and maize to cover the ground.

“They need to go for scale. If you look at the agricultural system in western Europe, it is small scale but very intensive farms,” he says.  “North America and Australia have big farms, but they are low-intensive. In Ukraine, you have the potential for intensive, large-scale farms, which is unprecedented.”

Ukraine has about 20 “super-large” farms of 100,000-500,000ha.

It is not uncommon to have a farming workforce of up to 40 people, alternating on shifts 24 hours a day. 

“The wheels need to be turning all the time,” says Mr Lee.  “For example, crop spraying will start this month and run through to November.  They are pretty much non-stop.”

So, what does Mr Lee think the future will hold for Ukraine?

“It’s not a straightforward situation. We still don’t know what will happen,” he admits.  “The geopolitical situation escalated. You have got Russia versus the West, and Ukraine as a pawn in the middle.  “Ukraine is being used as a catalyst for the re-emergence of Cold War sensitivities. Beneath that, you have a new interim government and elections on 25 May.

“Ukraine has a lot of issues – massive debts, corruption, and credit is very expensive.

“But there is this real sense of a possibility to improve life here.  The country has a real opportunity to develop and turn into what it should be.

“Can it do that without the influence of the West and Russia, which is trying to use the country to enact its influence?”

Russia has reportedly amassed roughly 40,000 troops near the federation’s border with eastern Ukraine.

But while the world waits to see if the massed Russian troops will invade, Mr Lee says the farming must go on in the country.

“We are out planting. From a farming perspective, we cannot wait until [Putin] decides what he’s going to do,” he adds.

“The planting season starts regardless of politics. The cycle continues.”

Mike Lee is a freelance consultant based in Ukraine. He updates his blog Agronomy-Ukraine and Twitter account @AgronomyUkraine with regular updates on farming and life in Ukraine.

Why the dry weather might not be all bad for Ukraine winter crops

Some rain happening now in western Ukraine, moving eastwards throughout the rest of the week.

This will stimulate germination and establishment of recently planted spring cereals and peas and  bring some relief to over wintered wheat and rape crops.

The dry winter and spring thus far might not necessarily be as bad for over wintered crops as it initially seems.

In dry conditions plant roots tend to go deeper looking for water and warmer than average (and warmer than last year soil temperature - see graph in the adjacent column) will have stimulated root development earlier in the season.

This will have allowed for a greater mass and length of root to develop, as can be seen on this chart.  The upshot of this is that if soil structure and everything else allows, there will be more roots deeper in to the soil profile which will be able to absorb water for longer as it drains past.

So the moral is to fix your soil structure so roots can develop to depth, it’ll pay dividends in a dry season.

Latest USDA weather update

Volume 101, No. 14, full report available here.

Sharply colder weather settled over the region, while unfavorable dryness persisted in parts of Ukraine.

A strong early-week cold front was followed by temperatures up to 5°C below normal, with nighttime readings dropping as low as -7°C across central and eastern Ukraine as well as portions of Russia’s Southern and North Caucasus Districts.

Winter wheat in the coldest areas was likely in the tillering to early jointing stages of development, and consequently could withstand temperatures as low as -9°C.

However, more advanced winter grains - particularly in Ukraine - may have reached the mid- to late-jointing stages, and therefore be susceptible to freeze damage from readings of -4°C or lower. In addition, Ukraine producers are in need of moisture due to a drier-than-normal winter and early spring, with rainfall during the past week (5 mm or less) doing little to improve winter crop prospects.

Short-term dryness also reduced moisture reserves for small grains in Belarus and Moldova.

In contrast, widespread rain and wet snow (5-25 mm liquid equivalent) maintained adequate soil moisture in Russia.

USDA latest weather update for western FSU

Volume 101, No. 13, Weather April 1, 2014, full report here.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions were followed by sharply colder weather by week’s end.  

A strong area of high pressure maintained unusually warm weather over the region; temperatures averaged up to 10°C above normal in Belarus, 7°C above normal in Ukraine, and 8°C above normal in western Russia.  

Daytime highs topped 20°C from central Belarus southeastward into Ukraine and southern portions of Russia’s Southern District, which continued to foster a faster-than-normal pace of winter crop development.

However, the sunny skies and unseasonable warmth also increased water demands and further reduced soil moisture for winter wheat and rapeseed, especially in central and northern Ukraine.  

By week’s end, a strong cold front was accompanied by light to moderate showers (2-13 mm) across southern portions of Ukraine and Russia. 

Behind the front, temperatures dropped as low as -4°C in the more advanced southern growing areas, though wheat had not yet reached the temperature-sensitive jointing stages of development.  

Therefore, little - if any - widespread impact is expected from this week’s freeze. 

The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end for Ukraine?

Over the course of a couple of weeks Ukraine went from having a functioning if not deeply corrupt administration to the government ordering the devastating use of live ammunition in Kiev to the President fleeing the country and a new interim government issuing a warrant for his arrest.

Russia thought this was a good time to invade Crimea and through a hastily organised referendum held at the barrel of a gun annexed the peninsular before anyone could figure out what was going on.

The US and EU then issued sanctions targeted at specific Russian individuals and their assets and Russia responded in kind.

Russian troops have massed on the border in preparation to invade further in to mainland Ukrainian sovereign territory.

Tomorrow the former President of Ukraine will give a press conference in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, to complain about how ethnic Russians in Ukraine are under attack from fascists thereby giving Putin the legal framework to order the invasion of mainland Ukraine.

The International Monetary Fund announced today they would draw up a deal for assistance worth $14-18bn to Ukraine over the next two years but only if they remove the subsidy on gas which will not go down well with voters.

On the ground the police are starting to become visible once again, but there are checkpoints manned by the police or military or more worryingly armed guys dressed in black with no insignia and tank movements in the east are making a mess of the already pretty poor roads.

Not much has changed for us on a practical level, shops still open with plenty of food, kids still go to the play park, sun keeps shining but I can’t help feeling that our time in Ukraine is going to be over at least for some time.

In my opinion if the new interim government can follow through the massive task it has set itself of ridding Ukraine of institutional corruption and if Russia will leave Ukraine alone then Ukraine might just might start punching on the global economy somewhere near its true potential.  That is a couple of big ifs.

Spring planting is underway with 1.5 million hectares of spring barley and 100,000 ha of spring wheat in the ground.  Sunflower planting in the south of the country has just started with 47,000 ha of the predicted 4.7 million hectares sown and 63,000 ha of an estimated 370,000 ha sugar beet.

Nitrogen fertiliser has started to go on to the overwintered crops but the question is how much?

A 20% drop in commodity prices just before 2013 harvest means many businesses are short of working capital.  The political unrest has made credit for seeds, chemicals and fuel harder to secure and when you do it is more expensive.  Fluctuations in the exchange rate have in effect increased the cost of inputs by 30%.  There is precious little inward investment as everyone is waiting to see how the situation plays out before risking funds in country.

All in all there’s not much cash to go farming with so I am expecting plantings to be down this year and what is planted receiving less fertiliser with a corresponding drop in yield.

To give some light at the end of the tunnel prices might go up by harvest but the access routes to export markets might just end up being under the control of Russia.

Sometimes its darkest just before dawn or just before it goes pitch black, let’s hope it’s the former.

So, just how dry is it in Ukraine?

The markets are starting to wake up the the idea that it might be pretty dry in Ukraine.

While there is a risk that Russia might invade further in to Ukraine adding to market uncertainty, for now I'm going to focus on what I do understand; the weather.

It is dry in Ukraine and the story started back in December.

Ukraine had very little snow fall over the winter and the lack of snow melt left the soils dry.

The lack of snow cover also left soils exposed to drying winds.

Temperatures have been above average and this has encouraged winter crops such as barley, wheat and oilseed rape to break dormancy early and start drawing water up through the roots and out through the stomata.

This is set against a backdrop of low rain fall so far this spring and the published soil moisture data and walking dry fields back this up.

While crops are not at wilting point they are starting to work very hard to suck up water and the nutrients contained within and this will be having an effect on plant vigour.  Imagine drinking through a restricted straw and you get the picture.

This will be felt more by shallow rooted cereal crops than the deeper rooted oilseed rape and will now be affecting germination and establishment of recently planted spring cereals.

All in all the situation is clearly illustrated in the chart above which shows the (lack of) soil moisture.

A worrying picture considering we are at the end of March.


Finding myself with a bit of time on my hands this afternoon I thought it would be fun to collate all the satellite pictures from Ukraine this winter to see if it showed the snow story any better which I did and you can find here.

It probably shows the limit of satellite imagery (or at least my understanding of it) as cloud cover obscures a lot of images, but if you study it closely and peak through the clouds it does show how late and patchy the snow was and how early in the year it disappeared.

Well it does to my mind anyway.

Ukraine in Turmoil

I am sitting in my office glued to the images and tweets trying to decide at what point I should load the family up in to the car and head for the Polish border.

The revolution in Ukraine has been going on since November but events escalated yesterday with up to 70 confirmed deaths and that number is creeping upwards.  Protesters and police are being shot at and people are being killed.

Earlier this week various government offices and police stations where I live had been ransacked and set on fire, the regional governor was dragged from office and forced to resign and protesters have gathered in force on the main street.

My neighbours tell me hundreds if not thousands of guns and ammunition has been stolen from police and militia headquarters which begs the question, who has them now?  Last night we heard what we hoped was the sound of fireworks but I now believe to be the sound of explosions coming from weapons and ammunition that was set on fire either deliberately or accidentally.

I drove around town last night to get a feel for the situation and its nervous and getting increasingly nervous with each day.

There are road blocks by both protesters and police, people from both sides are being detained and disappeared, many, many people have been beaten senseless, trains and buses have stopped running and the metro in Kiev has been closed for two days.

The center of Kiev is where the main battle is taking place and current photographs show a scene like something out of a film except it’s not a film. 

I was at the center of the demonstrations in Kiev last Saturday and the atmosphere while tense was calm with music, dancing, singing and cooking outside.  It’s hard to reconcile what I saw then with the images of war there now.

The rumours and stories are flying around with each hour; petrol stations are closing; people are queuing up at the banks; border crossing are blocked; titushki (hired government thugs) are breaking into private property, stealing and beating people; the internet and phones might go off at any minute and so on.

As yet the martial law hasn't been enforced but we are in a de facto state of emergency, the next big question is will the army come out of barracks and if so which side will they take; are we looking at a civil war.

Slava Ukraina! 

Weather update

Still no snow and when I went for my run this morning it felt more like April than January.

To support my observations here are two charts.

The first clearly and graphically shows the lack of snow cover compared to last year.

By now it would be normal to see a 20cm blanket of snow covering most of Ukraine.

The second chart while less dramatic does show how average temperatures have consistently been above normal since mid October through to December.

And I can confirm are still high through week 2 of January.

Dry and unseasonably warm is how the latest USDA weekly weather and crop update succinctly puts it.

It might go one of two ways.

A rapid drop in temperatures before snow fall with crop damage across wide regions of Ukraine and subsequent reports of catastrophic famine or it snows quickly and there is no problem.

My feeling is the issue will be much more agronomic and subtle than just death by cold.

Fungal diseases will have continued to develop later into the winter than is normal and will have an insidious effect on wheat and oilseed rape in particular.

This will have weakened plants so when temperatures do drop these plants will be less able to withstand the cold and we will see a higher than average level of winterkill as a result.

Furthermore there will be a high inoculm loading come the spring resulting in quicker and earlier disease thresholds being reached.

The same will hold true for insect pests; lifecycles have continued later in to the year than usual and base line populations will be that much higher at the start of the season.

Best make sure that sprayer is primed and ready to go come April.

Happy Christmas Ukraine

Yesterday was Christmas Day in Ukraine, Happy Christmas Ukraine.

According to tradition people tuck in to a 12 course vegetarian supper as the first stars appear in the sky.

Carol singers, Christmas trees and decorations, street entertainers, mulled wine and sausages all make the town center a very festive and fun place to be at the moment the only thing missing is snow.

It's like spring at the moment so much so that I am sitting in the office as I write with the window wide open.

One of the most frequent questions I have about Ukraine is what is the winter like?  Well normally it is cold with lots of snow and ice, blue skies and freezing temperatures and it’s wonderful.  

No such thing as bad weather just the wrong clothes; coats, hats, scarves and gloves and off you go.

But winter will come soon, snow will fall and it will get cold.  

The issue we have is will sufficient snow fall before the temperatures plummet?

That insulating blanket of snow is crucial in protecting winter crops; I have seen temperatures drop to minus 30 degrees Celsius with no adverse effects on oilseed rape and wheat safely tucked up under half a meter of snow.

The other issue is will all this mild weather and late arrival of cold allow for greater development of phoma and light leaf spot?  Theoretically yes which could impact on next seasons oilseed rape yield.

I am watching the weather reports currently coming out of the US and Canada and can’t help thinking we are going to get that as it travels across the pond?  

My feeling is we are going to get a big shock fairly soon and winter will hang around well in to the spring with knock on effect on planting and fertilising.

But that is later, for now there is nothing we can do on the farm so time to chillax hopefully without too much of the chill.

Farming through a revolution

"What do you want to do today kids, swimming, play park or do you want to go to the revolution?"

Not the normal Saturday morning family breakfast time negotiation but it is what I found myself saying last weekend.

Ukraine hit the headlines this week as a demonstration turned in to civil unrest and then an attempt to replace the government.

The spark was an abrupt about face by the Ukrainian government signing an EU Association Agreement that would have paved the way to closer EU integration and arguably social and economic improvements. 

Instead Ukraine chose to sign a free trade agreement with Russia much to the obvious delight of Vladimir Putin who basked in the afterglow of sticking one up the EU.

It didn’t last long.  Demonstrators quickly took to the streets in Kiev and other towns to show their frustration at seemingly another lost opportunity for Ukraine.

In Kiev crowds gathered around the location of the previous revolution and early on Saturday morning when you had the feeling the whole thing would peter out in the cold winter, special forces stormed the site and started beating people bloody with batons, boots and fists.

This had the effect you might imagine, people went nuts, by Saturday evening massive crowds had gathered, there were running street battles, at one point they tried to topple Lenin’s statue, social media was buzzing with evidence of state sanctioned violence, the worlds leaders condemned the actions, barricades were erected and it all started to get a bit serious.

On Monday the government avoided a vote of no confidence then seemed to grow in confidence and started demanding the demonstrators disbanded and vacate city hall they had taken over as an impromptu headquarters.

As I write the situation appears calm but you do have the feeling that it could gain traction and go one of several ways.

In the meantime I have been acting like an unofficial journo as media groups contacted me (me!) looking for eyewitness reports from the front lines, which I duly obliged.

Is this affecting farming?  Not at the moment, all winter crops are currently entering dormancy as the temperatures drop, this morning saw the first bit of proper snow of the season and harvest is officially all but done and breaking records.  Exports might slow up if events turn in to wider actions such as national strikes but at this moment I don’t see anything that suggests beyond the main cities it’s anything other than keep calm and carry on.

I’m proud to say we unanimously chose to attend the revolution and the kids loved it.

Wet wet wet

Its been raining and the ground is soaking wet.

Oilseed rape planted in to dry conditions earlier this month will appreciate the drink but the cold weather (I wore a hat today) will mean the plants can not really take full advantage.

Winter wheat plantings in Ukraine and Russia are now behind schedule so much so that commentators are writing about a shortage of wheat for 2014.

My contacts are all a little less negative; it is wet and machines are not moving at present but given a dry'ish October then they should catch up.

The more immediate impact of the rain is those business relying on dry conditions to cut sunflowers and soya will incur additional drying costs and more significantly, delays in harvesting corn as they wait for driers to clear the backlog.

Ukraine is about to sign an association agreement with the EU which essentially is a step towards Europe.

Putin is furious and the rhetoric is becoming increasingly aggressive, Russia will likely retaliate the only way it knows how by increasing gas prices.

Crop prices have dropped 40% in the last month.

Corn which was fairly stable all year has dropped from around €170/mt to €100/mt; prices haven't been this low since 2009-10 season and there is a feeling it may go lower still.

Wet crop, high gas prices, low crop prices, record areas of crop, high volumes, no additional drying infrastructure.

It's all starting to look like a bit like a perfect storm.

China in your hand

This week China announced they had had reached an agreement with Ukraine to buy 3 million hectares of prime farmland in Dnipropetrovsk.

After much discussion as to what a hectare is the press went to town trying to contextualize 3 million.

Apparently it's about the size of Belgium, Armenia or Massachusetts and is 11,583 square miles or 9% of Ukraine's arable farm land.

I haven't checked any of these comparisons because I couldn't be bothered so don't email me if they are wrong.

However this was quickly followed up with a Refutation of Information statement from Ukraine saying it had all been a big misunderstanding and what they had actually agreed to was an investigation to cooperate in a 3 thousand hectare drip irrigation project.  

3 thousand hectares is about 11.5 square miles or the size of Slough.

Despite back tracking the intention still holds true that many country's, China included, recognise Ukraine as an important provider of food security so expect more of these announcements in the future and expect some of them to eventually stick.

It also holds true that Ukraine is one bastard of a place to do business.

USDA weekly weather bulletin August 20

Scattered showers (5-25 mm or more) and seasonably warm weather in the Baltics, Belarus, western Ukraine, and the western Central District in Russia continued to benefit immature spring grains and summer crops. 

Elsewhere, hot, mostly dry weather in eastern Ukraine, the Southern District in Russia, and southern and eastern portions of the Volga District in Russia hastened crop development and amplified evaporative losses, aiding small grain maturation and harvesting but increasing stress on immature summer crops. 

Temperatures in these latter regions averaged 3 to 6°C above normal, with daily maximum temperatures routinely in the lower to middle 30s degrees C.

Drier-than-normal July weather accelerated the harvesting of winter grains and oilseeds from northern Ukraine into western and southern Russia. 

Meanwhile, spotty showers in central and eastern Ukraine provided some soil moisture for reproductive summer crops, although a lack of stressful heat maintained overall favorable corn and sunflower yield prospects. 

Harvest and planting update

Weather conditions have generally been kind for oilseed rape and wheat harvest with both crops now all but finished.

Oilseed rape gross yields are reported somewhere around 2.3mt/ha, similar to last year.

According to ministry 61,000 hectares or 7% of the forecast 924,000 hectares of winter oilseed rape has already been planted. 

My records suggest that’s a slight decrease on last years planted are but we still have a three week planting window to go.

Current local spot price for oilseed rape is a paltry 3,100uah/mt (382usd/mt); this time last year oilseed rape was selling at a more respectable 4,400uah/mt (541usd/mt).

Wheat yields are up on 2012 with the ministry of agriculture’s current official estimate hovering around 3.4mt/ha (last year it was 2.9mt/ha).

Local spot price for 3rd class wheat is 1,200uah (148usd/mt) compared to 1,700uah/mt (210usd/mt) at the same time last year.

Corn is looking good at the moment with this season’s weather playing a big role in helping the crop germinate, grow and pollinate well.  A recent cool spell coincided with corn pollination which helped seed set. 

Current estimations are pegging corn at 5.95mt/ha although the feeling is the price will be low.

Sunflower harvest is away in the south with early yields coming in a smidge over 1.0mt/ha.

Soya is looking good as it generally does at this time of year and early predictions are for a reasonable crop but who make money on soya in Ukraine?

The problem with Ukraine is...

Ukraine has land, lots of it; 32 million hectares of large flat arable fields.

Ukraine has a great climate; an intense growing season that turns the country from drab winter greys to a vibrant green jungle inside of a week and allows all the major commodities to flourish.

Ukraine has soil; deep, fertile, easily worked stuff, even the Nazis, not best known for their agronomy skills, recognised the potential, shovelled it in to wagons and carted it back to Berlin.

Ukraine is perfectly located to market; 400m next door in soon to be annexed Europe, 140m in the former colony Russia and a further 500m hungry souls just though the Bosporus in the Mediterranean and North African countries.

So why does Ukraine's agricultural productivity not reach the much hyped potential?

I could write a thesis on the subject but today I am going to pick specifically on contractors.

There aren't any.  At least not any that behave like contractors.  There are farmers and chancers that portray themselves as contractors but in reality no contractors.

Take one contractor I use for example - I'll call him Sergey.

Sergey has no problem turning up late; not turning up at all; turning up with discs that have discs missing leaving an uncultivated strip running down the middle and doesn't see why this is a problem; cultivating too shallow so he can speed through the hectares; stealing diesel; stealing fertiliser; overcharging; making up invoices; charging twice for the same job; all in all just being an out and out dick.

Before you ask why use him, the others are the same but turn up drunk.

There is a huge opportunity for young budding entrepreneurs to establish a contracting business here in Ukraine, providing a normal standard and normal quality of service to established large farming entities.

Many, me included are looking to fund capex and outsourcing machinery services in partnership with a proper contractor is a very real option.

To my mind initiatives like this will lead to increased productivity and improved profitability and the likes of Sergey will go the way of the dinosaurs.

Forced to eat his own defecate as he runs out of food.

Harvest update

Current Ukraine harvest reports for small grain and oilseed rape are putting yields more than 30% up
on last year. 

Initial harvest results are from southern Ukraine regions with the bulk harvest yet to get underway further north.

Higher than average rainfall in southern Ukraine will have played a big part in those high yields.

The question will be how high these figures are maintained as harvest progresses in to areas that have received average rainfall figures.

Ukraine and Russia harvest gets underway

Harvest 2013 is up and running and initial indications are that its going to be big.

Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy are currently pegging rapeseed at 2.0mt/ha, spring barley at 1.5mt/ha, winter barley at 2.7mt/ha, winter wheat at 2.9mt/ha and rye at 2.4mt/ha.

Total grains and pulses are quoted 2.68mt/ha which is up 36% on same time last year.

Across the border, Russia are quoting rapeseed at 1.7mt/ha, barley at 4.4mt/ha (really?) and wheat at 3.5mt/ha. 

Total grains are 3.56mt/ha which is up 26% on same time last year.

As always I would season these figures with plenty of salt but it does look to be true that so far 2013 crops are performing better than 2012.

Although weather does more to meddle with yield figures than mere human intervention the general condition of crops is improving year on year. 

You never used to see tramlines, you do now.

As each season goes the level of knowledge, experience and technology is improving but then again so it should be, this is 2013 after all. 

But before I run away with the idea all is rosy in the workers paradise let's be honest, three ton of wheat is not all that when the rest of Europe pushes six.

The report card reads "Yuri and Dmitri are working hard but they could do better...much better."

And when they do...

Ukraine and Russia crop and weather update

Reports of improved chances of rain in the FSU came true this week as light to moderate rain fell in parts of western Ukraine.

Eastern Ukraine and Russia remained dry with farmers in the regions telling me winter wheat is now in ear and starting to show visible signs of drought stress.

Substantial rains expected for Russia's southern district will help newly planted maize and sunflowers but will have a limited effect on these crops approaching the reproductive phase.

Talking of rape, it might just be me but all the stuff I have seen between Lviv in the west and Chernigov in the north looks a bit sickly.

Like that pale, runty kid who shuffled about at school perpetually sniffling and dribbling in to a snot rag.  It's all there just a bit weedy looking.

I'm putting it down to plants running out of steam in the longer than usual winter and it's taking longer than usual to bounce back.

The problem now is that the time left to bounce back is getting less with every day so the bounce will not be as high as we would have hoped.  I am anticipating a yield penalty.

Although corn and sunflower plantings have picked up the pace the Ministry of Agrarian Policy might be jumping the gun when they reported this week that 4.6min ha of maize (97% of the plan), 3.9min ha of sunflowers (99% of the plan) and 1.25min ha of soya (87%) had been planted.

Which for no reason at all reminds me of the story about the talented soviet aircraft designer Oleg Antanov who when looking to reduce weight on one of his aircraft designs decided not unreasonably to replace the four stroke back up generator with a lighter two stroke version.

When party officials got wind of this they told comrade Antanov that the step from four stroke to two stroke was too radical and revolutionary and insisted he used a three stroke engine instead!

Ukraine spring crops update

May and summer is well and truly here. 

The season went from deep winter to summer completely bypassing spring all in the space of a couple of weeks.

The end of March saw the mercury at minus 20 Celsius yet by the end of the April daytime highs were just short of 30 Celsius. 

Minus 20 to plus 29 in 30 days.  No wonder the roads are crap.

The meter deep snow that was present in April rapidly disappeared and slide off through the soil profile never to be seen again.

Field work started by the second week of April with planting underway by the third.

By the first week of May analysts started ringing the alarm bells that the ensuing drought was going to harm Ukraine's previously (like two weeks previously) forecasted record yields and unless it rained quickly famine was sure to follow.

Yet a quick look at the met data shows rainfall and soil moisture at or above the average so go figure.

On the ground no one is complaining of dry conditions just yet - apart from those in the East and South but they all ways do so there's no news there.

Winter conditions even with the late start have been favourable and most crops survived with negligible levels of winter kill; which means there isn't going to be a big upswing in spring planted crops particularly export friendly corn and barley.

Clear weather ahead means corn, sunflower and soya plantings are rapidly catching up, no doubt we will need some rain soon but it usually arrives at some point.

Prices have been buoyant of late with all the major commodities fetching prices at or very near to five year highs.  Is this the year farmers make money?

The Ukrainian China trade deal has started to take effect with local administrations now tasked with the job of sourcing 5mmt of corn to send to China by the end of the year.  The deal is the Ukrainian government will pay the farmer 700uah/mt (that's about €66 but likely to be a lot less once the hryvna devalues which is expected any time soon) and the balance based on the market value at delivery. 

No specific mention of when that balance will actually be paid.

The fertiliser supply chain issues seems to have righted itself just in the nick of time with fertiliser now turning up on farms as its being spread.

In summary, crops are looking good, summer is here, roads are still crap!

As another season gets underway I wish good luck to all farmers and use the quote that once in your life you need a doctor, a lawyer, a policeman and a preacher but everyday, three times a day you need a farmer.