It’s all gone crazy!

"The "crazy" rapeseed market hitting its highest for nearly two years" according to Agrimoney.

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Crazy for whom? Not crazy for the me I can tell you; “much appreciated” would be how I describe it.

This latest report is on the back of Germany cutting harvest estimates and the ongoing reports of catastrophe in Russia; have a look at the (rather amateurish) Russia Today report posted by Nogger on his blog (here).

Agrimoney go on with "...the crop downgrades just keep coming, and that is maintaining investors' interest [in wheat]," a City analyst told Agrimoney.com.

A City analyst? That's a bit vague isn’t it?

My mate down the "all you can eat and drink, borsche and vodka bar", Fat Yuri reckons that as we enter the second phase of the European harvest the market will definitely turn in to a fully justified rally and the full picture of how the winter and more recent weather has downgraded harvest potential in Central and Eastern Europe will finally fully reveal itself.

That’s what Fat Yuri told me anyway.

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How much?

Paris rapeseed for August delivery hits 360.50 EURO a tonne. Latest local price just short of 3000 UAH (298 EURO) so we have a long way to go yet.

Another hot and sunny day in Kiev

Blue skies and 28 degrees already and it will get hotter as the day progresses. Rain still forecast with localised showers popping up.

Combined in to the night, unverified oilseed rape coming in at 2t.

Weathermen, pah!

The torrential rain as forecast by the weathermen failed to materialise and combines have been moving today.

I tell you what, it’s a good job we don’t plan our lives around these weathermen muppets or we wouldn’t get anything done.

I blame Michael Fish. In 1987 he famously said: "Earlier on today a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way... well, if you're watching love, don't worry, there isn't!".

Hours later the worst storm since 1703 hit Britain, flattened millions of trees and killed 18 people.

Ever since weather forecasters have been erring on the side of catastrophe just in case.

Crimea

Currently warm and sunny in Kiev with localised rain in various regions.

It’s been very wet in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, APK are reporting an estimated 30% loss to barley and a reduction in the quality of the wheat.

Weather & harvest update

Localised showers and heavy rain delaying harvest.

Where it remains dry combines are cutting rape at around 11%mc.

Oilseed rape currently going for 2,850UAH at 8%mc and 2% admix. I reckon that's cheap and we should see a continued firming of that price.

Weather & harvest update

Overnight rain has left the crops wet and no combining likely to start before later this afternoon at the earliest.

Forecast is for a wet week with heavy rain over most parts of Ukraine.

Spain reign

Congratulations Spain, a well deserved result. See you at Euro 2012 to be held in Poland and Ukraine if they can get the stadiums built in time.

Light rain...

...has stopped combining for the day, forecast is for better weather tomorrow when we should resume play.

Might as well watch the WC final with two LFC players and one English ref making an appearance.

Rain data so far

Here's the cumulative rainfall for Central Ukraine so far this season.

The above average data fits in with what we have experienced on the ground.

Ukraine not ready for harvest

Rumours persist that Ukraine might not actually be quite ready for harvest despite all the freshly filed Harvest Readiness Reports.

Weather

Warm and dry in Kiev at the moment but rain around the regions has stalled combining for the time being. We are hoping to get started later today if the rain stays off.

Four million tonnes and counting

The ministry are reporting 4.0MMT of grains from 1.651 million hectares as of today. That's some 2.4t/ha.

This time last year they reported 6.5MMT harvested.

Hold your horses

Rape is not as dry as I thought it should be given the hot, dry weather we have had theses last few weeks.

We took a combine in to a field this afternoon and I would have put my house on it being ready but it came out at 18%mc.

This is probably why we haven't spied (probably shouldn't use that word given the latest cold war games in the US) many combines around at the moment.

It's raining in the south and harvest has stopped.

Harvest update

First field of oilseed rape was finished last night and came off at 2.5t/ha which is way above the average being reported elsewhere.

Waiting to start again this morning, combines about to roll, I will let you know how we get on by this evening.
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A solution to the criminals currently masquerading as rozzers*?

Georgia: Hassle from the police stopping drivers and demanding usually $100 or more became so bad a few years ago that something had to be done.

The USA and EU funded a complete new road traffic police force in secret and then the Government sacked the entire traffic police force overnight and replaced them. Now they are helpful and courteous and, of course, have much better salaries and equipment.

What a great idea which should be implemented in Ukraine.

*A British term. Originally Rossers referring to when a Police officer would Report on Summons hence ROS, changed to ROZZERS for ease of pronunciation.

Kazakhstan yields down

There is talk of 30% reduction in grain yields.

I have a mate who is working in Kazakhstan and he keeps me informed of what he’s up to and he says it has been very dry this spring and the crops look very thin.

Coupled with recent high temperatures and it’s not surprising yield forecasts are being downgraded.

Here's a picture of some Kazakh wheat. Before you go and panic buy on the back of it just remember that good Kazakh wheat doesn't look much better, it always is a thin crop. It's sown late, has about 100 days to grow in and yields 1.5 to 2.0t but you have loads of space to grow the stuff in.

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Harvest update from Europe

My mate Jim who farms in Romania and has just driven back to France from there sent me some very interesting observations.

First off Romania. He said “harvest is just starting, rape was being cut at 11% and was very variable. Wheat is looking ok but summer grasses are appearing where it’s thin or in dirty ground. Maize and sunflowers that were early planted looked superb.”

On the Hungarian Romanian border he said “they have had it very wet and I saw 3 lovely Claas combines all stuck in the same field. The rape and wheat that was close to being ready had pools of water in many of the low spots and there were a few asphyxiated crops of maize and sunflowers, yuk!”

In Austria he noted barley had just been cut and in Germany most crops were not ready though they looked best of any – unlike last nights football team – with just enough lodging to suspect they had put enough N on! Germany efficiency at its best.

The crappy crops in the East of France that he saw in the spring looked a lot better.

Back home in France six row winter barley was cut yesterday - 7t/ha at 11.5 to 12.5% mc 68 to 69 PS.

He will be back in Romania next week, I for one look forward to another update. Much appreciated, cheers Jim.

Soya

I see a lot of patchy yellowing that looks like nitrogen deficiency but I’m not so sure. I think it could be a micro nutrient issue, boron perhaps, possibly brought on by soil structure problems.

Here's a crop of "I can't believe it's not GM" soya.
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Sunflowers...

...are a flippin' tall crop. Now I'm not small, probably about average in height you might say, but these sunflowers are massive and despite their nice serene image they are bloody painful to walk through, right scratchy buggers they are.

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I've got a brand new combine harvester...

...and I'll give you the key. One for the machinery heads, here is a New Holland CX8080 filmed earlier today doing what it's designed to do.

I have just driven 300km across central Ukraine and for the record I only saw one other combine working.

Oilseed rape first harvest

Here it is, the first tank full of black gold.

This came off at an estimated 2.4t with 9% m.c. Pretty good eh?

OK, so it's early days yet and I would be foolish to think it will all be like this but I still reckon my oilseed rape will be above average.

Russia

I am hearing some interesting reports from Russia that suggest a much reduced harvest estimate mainly due to poor spring planting but also the recent hot and dry weather.

Fits in with my mates reports and his photo I posted the other day.

Weather & harvest update

Warm, blue skies, looks like it will be a hot day.

Central Ukraine has seen some thin oilseed rape cut along with headlands in wheat (usually done as a fire precaution) and some fields of barley.

Oi, ref!

Pierluigi Collina has signed a two-year contract to sort out refereeing in Ukraine which had been plagued by scandals and poor decisions.

Pity he wasn’t engaged to sort out the rozzers which is beset with similar issues.

Harvest update; early performance figures

I wouldn’t pay too much attention to these harvest figures as reported from the Ministry of Agriculture but for the record here they are:

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The Kyiv Post is quoting the Ministry at 1.77 MMT of grain from 72,000 hectares. Tut, tut Kyiv Post, 1.77 MMT from 72,000 ha will give 24 MT per hectare. Shurely shome mishtake?

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I guess they mean 2.4 MT per hectare which would be about right.

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Oilseed rape is coming in at 1.4 MT per hectare which isn’t too bad but as my old school reports used to say “plenty of room for improvement”.

Central European Russian wheat

Have a look at this; it's a crop of Russian wheat from a couple of days ago.

It looks like reports of drought and high temperature has not been over exaggerated. I would be surprised if harvest will be as upbeat as some suggest based on the reports my contacts have given me.

Weather & harvest update

Warm and sunny with blue skies this morning, overnight rain cooled things down but it looks set for another hot day.

Combines will need to wait for the overnight rain and dew to burn off which shouldnt't take too long.

Is that glowing green stuff on my lamb really mint sauce?

Scottish sheep are now safe to eat and no longer radioactive from Chornobyl fall out, apparently.

Two decades after reactor #4 went fizz, bang the radiation levels in Scottish sheep has finally dropped to below the safety limits.

Chornobyl was 1600km away from Scotland, Sellafield is about 160km away, hmmm.

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Can I hear champagne corks popping’?

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are lending NIBULON Ltd $50 million to build grain storage and handling facilities along the Dnieper River.

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All I can say is congratulations to all concerned!
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Congratulations to Nibulon for having the necessary ability and stamina to access EBRD funds - no mean feat in itself - and congratulations to the EBRD for having the balls to fund primary industry development in the face of an economic downturn.

Not satisfied with that the EBRD are apparently looking to loan $50 million to MHP, $10 million to Astarta and $50 million to Mriya.

Blimey!

Weather update

It has started lashing it down.

Weather & harvest update

Rumbling with thunder; electricity in the air; hot, humid, and very sticky; threatening to lash it down at any minute.

Forget your preconceptions of Eastern European cold and perpetual snow, the weather at this time of the year is scorchio.

They even ban lorries from the centre of Kiev as the tarmac is melting.

Early harvest reports have OSR moisture content between 9 and 14%.

The IMF...

...have agreed a $15 billion Stand-by-Arrangement or loan to you and me. Which I think is good news but like all loans they do have to be paid back.

As you would expect there is a whole load of caveats attached but as the IMF seems rather toothless I suspect this amounts to very little.

Weather & harvest update

Currently warm and sunny in Kiev but the forecast suggests showers and sun in most regions becoming more settled later in the week.

Combines have started working in central regions this weekend.

Watch Hillary Clinton’s speech at Kiev Polytechnic…

…all sixteen minutes of it here if your interested. Nothing particularly controversial, usual guff about enhancing democracy and removing corruption, no mention of agriculture and she didn’t answer any of my questions!

Glenda Jackson once visited my local Polytechnic in Birkenhead.

Harvest readiness update...

It's raining cats and dogs!

We just had the mother of rainstorms come through Kiev, not what you want hitting brittle oilseed rape pods days away from harvest, never mind the wheat

There was even some hail mixed in with the rain.

This is the view off my balcony not half an hour ago, isn't technology brilliant! Make sure you sing "rain drops keep falling on my head" as you watch to get the full experience.

Dear Secretary of State

I sent a question to US Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton if she would ask the President of Ukraine, Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych when they meet tomorrow, about the general lack of support for agriculture in Ukraine, the burdensome bureaucracy and the command led mentality coming out of the Ministry of Agriculture.

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Well I thought if Kyiv is going to be in lock down and the streets closed to traffic I thought I would try and get a question asked for my inconvenience.

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I will let you know if I receive an answer but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Ukraine ready for harvest, almost

But for a couple of minor technical glitches. They should be fixed in a jiffy.
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Ukraine ready for harvest, official

The continued interference and controlling nature of the min of ag continues unabated as farms are asked to produce a harvest readiness reports, which is pretty much what it says it is.

"A report on the condition and readiness of machinery and buildings prior to the start of harvest."

With the risk of banging the same old drum, my question is “what’s it got to do with you?”

If we say that we haven’t sufficient trucks to keep up with the combines, will they supply us with more? If we say our buildings are porous, rat infested derelict wrecks are they going to help us fix them? I’m guessing here but I think the answer is a resounding no.

So why the blessed report?