Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Excessive early-week heat likely trimmed yield prospects for reproductive summer crops, though rainy, cooler conditions by mid-week prevented further yield losses.

A continuation of the brief but intense heat wave which began on or about July 14 lingered into the early part of the week, with highs approaching or topping 40°C in key corn and sunflower areas of Russia and Ukraine through July 18.

Impacts varied considerably from region to region, largely based on planting dates and the resultant crop development stage.

In northern Ukraine and Russia’s Central District, where corn is typically planted in early to mid-May, the heat had little impact as corn was still in the vegetative stages of development.

From southern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern district — where corn is planted somewhat earlier (mean planting date is late April) — corn was in the tassel and silk stages of development when the heat arrived; as a result, corn in southern portions of the region likely suffered some loss of yield potential.

However, widespread, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-80 mm) signalled the arrival of cooler weather, limiting the deleterious impacts of the heat on reproductive corn (and to lesser extent sunflowers) to 6 days or less.

While potentially harmful for summer crops, the sunny, hot weather enabled a rapid winter wheat harvest pace before the rainy weather slowed fieldwork by mid-week.

Eastern FSU

Widespread rain and near-normal temperatures maintained favorable prospects for spring wheat, while somewhat cooler conditions in Uzbekistan eased stress on flowering cotton. 

With spring wheat in the heading to flowering stages of development, a soaking rainfall (10-90 mm, locally more) over northern Kazakhstan and adjacent portions of central Russia maintained good to excellent yield prospects. 

Showers were somewhat lighter (less than 10 mm) in the southern Urals District, but soil moisture was in good supply for flowering spring wheat. 

Farther south, the return of near-normal temperatures (daytime highs 35-40°C) in Uzbekistan reduced stress caused by last week’s heat on irrigated cotton, which continued to progress through the flowering stage of development. 

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Dry, warm conditions prevailed in the region’s primary winter wheat areas.

Sunny skies and near- to above normal temperatures (1-3°C above normal) maintained ideal conditions for winter wheat maturation and harvesting from south-central Ukraine into western portions of Russia’s Southern District, a key winter wheat area.

A swath of moderate to heavy rain (10-50 mm, locally more) hampered drydown and harvesting in eastern winter wheat areas, but the rain was not expected to impact crop quality or lower yield potential.

Farther west, 10 to 50 mm of rainfall eased developing short-term dryness in northwestern Ukraine and neighbouring portions of Belarus, improving prospects for spring grains, soybeans, and corn.

Primary corn areas (north-central and eastern portions of Ukraine into southwestern Russia) have received near- to above-normal rainfall over the past 60 days, so this week’s dry, warm weather (30-32°C) promoted crop development.

Corn was approaching the tassel stage in Ukraine, and had entered the tassel stage in Russia.

Vegetative to reproductive spring grains in the eastern Volga District benefited from widespread showers (2-22 mm) and near-normal temperatures.

Eastern FSU

Widespread showers maintained favourable prospects for spring wheat (north) and cotton (south).

Early in the period, a departing storm system produced an additional 10 to 60 mm of rainfall from northwestern Kazakhstan and the southern Urals District eastward into the Siberia District.

The rain further increased soil moisture reserves for jointing spring wheat, which is on schedule to enter the key reproductive stages of development during the latter half of July.

Farther south, showers and thunderstorms (10-40 mm) over eastern Uzbekistan and environs provided supplemental moisture for irrigated cotton, which was in the flowering stage of development.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Showers and thunderstorms boosted soil moisture for summer crops and ended the recent heat in southern Russia.

Early in the period, daytime highs approached or topped 35°C (locally as high as 37°C) over much of Russia’s Southern District, accelerating corn and sunflowers toward reproduction.

However, timely showers and thunderstorms (10-55 mm, locally more) later in the week boosted moisture supplies and signalled the end of the brief heat wave, with daytime highs dipping below 35°C as corn entered the temperature-critical tasseling stage of development.

Farther west, widespread albeit highly variable showers (5-80 mm) maintained favourable soil moisture for corn, soybeans, and sunflowers over Moldova and Ukraine, though short-term dryness has begun to develop over parts of north-central Ukraine (10-25 percent of normal rainfall over the past 30 days).

Meanwhile, dry weather promoted winter wheat drydown and harvesting in southern portions of the Central District, while light to moderate showers (2-40 mm) maintained good soil moisture for spring wheat development in the Volga District.

Eastern FSU

Widespread rain developed over the region’s primary spring wheat areas, while drier conditions settled over southern portions of the region.

A slow-moving storm system brought a soaking rainfall (10-80 mm, locally more) to northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia, boosting soil moisture supplies for jointing spring wheat but hampering seasonal fieldwork.

Farther south, drier, warmer weather was beneficial for the development of irrigated cotton and also facilitated winter wheat harvesting in Uzbekistan.

Ukraine harvest update

Finally managed to find some information on how the Ukraine harvest is progressing, seems they have stopped publishing information on the Ag Ministry website as they had in previous seasons.

As of 4 July the Ministry report 576kha of early grains and pulses have been harvested (502kha in 2015) producing 2.0mmt with an average yield 3.5mt/ha (3.0mt/ha in 2015).

This includes 99kha of winter wheat with a yield of 3.7mt/ha and 457kha of winter barley with a yield of 3.5mt/ha.

I would expect wheat yields to increase as harvest moves north through the country.

Russian harvest update

As of 4 July, the Ministry report 1.4mha of grain harvested (0.7mha in 2015) producing 6.0mmt with an average yield 4.3mt/ha (3.7mt/ha in 2015).

In Krasnodar barley yield is 5.7mt/ha, down 10% on last years 6.3mt/ha, possible an indication that lodged crops have had more of an impact than previously thought.

Meanwhile in other southern regions wheat proteins are running low at 10-11%, far below the normal 13%.