The latest USDA World Agricultural Production report on Ukraine, released last week, makes some interesting points.
The report forecasts a yield of 3.79mt/ha (56bu/acre), which is 9% below
last year’s record but 5% above the five-year average, and goes on to say that abundant
soil moisture will support an above-average wheat yield for 2017/18, pegging
their latest estimate at 25.0mmt, down 1.8 million from last year.
Back in March, after our first tour of the season, we pegged
Ukraine’s wheat crop at 25.2mmt with an export potential of 13mmt.
The USDA report goes on to say that although fall dryness delayed
winter-wheat plantings and reduced the time available for crop establishment,
the melting of unusually deep snow cover replenished subsoil moisture
reserves and benefited winter crops as they resumed spring growth which broadly
fits with our findings during our November and March tours.
From 29 May, we will be touring the region again to make our
own completely independent assessment of Ukraine’s wheat yield prospects and
will make our findings available to our crop tour subscribers.
You could go and check it out yourself but as we only charge
£350 for ten full tour reports commissioned throughout the season making each
report cost £35, you’d probably spend that on breakfast at the airport on the
way out.
Email blackseacroptour@gmail and I’ll reply with information
on our tours and how to subscribe to access the results.