Second Black Sea Crop Tour kicks off tomorrow

Tomorrow I kick off the second Black Sea Crop Tour of 2016 when I head to Ukraine.

Over the next nine to ten days the team and I plan to cover around 4,000km of central, south and eastern Ukraine and Central and south Russia.

The aim of this crop tour is to assess the condition of the newly emerged spring crops of corn, sunflower and soyabeans but we will also comment on the condition of cereal crops plus anything else that is noteworthy.

I will post daily updates during the tour on the subscribers twitter account @BSCT_01 which will consist of comment and opinion, photographs and videos.

We also have a couple of farm visits lined up and will be chatting to the guys there to see how their season has been progressing and what thoughts they may have for the coming weeks.

Drop me a line if you would like to subscribe and support us in delivering the only truly independent Black Sea Crop Tour and to receive access to the tour Twitter account and follow up reports.

From what I'm hearing we'll need to pack waterproofs.

Adieu for now.

Has the Russian food embargo just turned a corner?

EU US sanctions and Russia’s food embargo have been in the news this week when France granted Russia’s Agriculture Minister, who is banned from visiting the EU, a visa so he could meet up with his counterpart in Paris.

To recap the story so far, pay attention now; the EU impose sanctions on Russia for Russia’s violations in Ukraine; Russia respond by saying they are not in Ukraine and retaliate with an embargo on EU and US food; Russia tries to turn the problem of food supply in to an opportunity for domestic farmers while EU and US farmers hurting from the sudden closure of the Russian market lobby to get the embargo lifted; nothing seems to happen for two years then this week France open the door to the Russian Minster of Agriculture while the Greek PM stands shoulder to shoulder with the Russian President and proclaims sanctions imposed on Russia are not productive in a week when the EU is expected to renew sanctions and Russia plans to extend the food embargo until the end of 2017.

Got all that?

What I think we might be seeing is, if not the beginning of the end of sanctions then the beginning of the beginning to talk about ending sanctions and lifting the food embargo.

This week the Russian Agriculture Ministry announced plans to extend the food embargo until the end of 2017 although they will not expand the list of the products prohibited for import to Russia. 

Planning is not the same as doing and in my mind sounds like part of a negotiation process; why announce you’re planning to do something unless you’re giving room for negotiation.  Furthermore the comment that they will not expand the list could also be seen as a sign of good faith.

The Minister went on to say the food embargo is “good news for domestic agricultural producers”.

Maybe so but the EU, who have avoided lodging a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) thus far might have their hand forced as Poland, who have been hit hard by the embargo have sent a request to European Trade Commissioner who represent EU members in WTO cases.

The Commission has said they will respond by September 12^th which kind of puts a meaningful time frame for finding a solution to the current situation which despite rhetoric and strong words must be hurting everyone.

Something else that might further put a damper on the Russian Ag Ministers good news story is the report that Russia could face an oversupply of meat, in particular pork and poultry if it continues to increase production at the current rates.

Russia has increased meat production by 13.5% in the period from January to April 2016 compared to the same period last year and some Russian meat producers are concerned enough to have petitioned the government to stop subsidising the meat industry as it was affecting the price. 

That’s the problem with centrally planned agriculture, it’s virtually impossible to find the right balance but you’d think we would all know that by now.

So France granting Russia’s Agriculture Minister a visa could be construed that behind the scenes negotiations might just have moved to in front of the scenes which could be counted as progress of sorts.

Black Sea mid-week agri-news

Ukraine's new Minister of Agriculture is backing land reform which including selling leasing rights to encourage banks to lend against the asset; I’m not yet sure how this differs from current arrangements.

The USDA out the worst kept agricultural secret this week when they report that an estimated 80% of Ukraine soybeans and 10% of corn are grown illegally from genetically modified seed.  They don’t go on to expand how those US produced GM bean seeds managed to end up in Ukraine in the first place though.

Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture report latest plantings as corn 4.3mha, 95% of forecast (4.1mha at the same period in 2015), sunflower 5.0mha, 95% of forecast (4.5mha in 2015) and soya 1.7mha, 84% (1.9mha in 2015).

Russian cereal plantings are ahead on last year but likely to slow with wet conditions over much of the region; spring sowing currently stand at ​​37.1mha, up 3.7mha on the same point last year.

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture report this week that grain exports stand at 31.8mmt from July 1, 2015 to May 18, 2016, up 12.8% compared with the same period last year.

Russia also reported that fertiliser purchased between January and May is up a substantial 17% on the corresponding period last year.

Russia’s weather and environment department, Roshydromet report the 2016 harvest will be comparable with five year average indices of between 102-105mmt.  They go on to say that precipitation has been sufficient in most regions but might be problem later in the season in Volga and central western Russia.

Although we reported this last week, commentators are starting to flag up how current weather (rain) has increased the risk lodging in winter grains in Ukraine and Russia.  Also worth mentioning that lodging causes humid conditions conducive to mycotoxin production.

Furthermore we have several independent contacts reporting delayed and missed fungicides leaving the window open to fungal diseases in particular fusarium with associated mycotoxin and if that wasn't enough the wet weather will have increased risk of grains sprouting in the ear.

Meanwhile France granted the Russian Agricultural Minister an entry visa even though he is on the EU banned list and he has now met with his French counterpart while at the same time the EU admit they have made limited progress in talks with Russia to restore the pork trade.

At this moment it certainly looks like France might break ranks to negotiate a better trading position for themselves with Russia.

And finally it was reported this week that UK rural broadband is ‘worse than ex-Soviet bloc’ which is not news to some of us is it Virgin Media?

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Wet weather prevailed over much of the region, sustaining good to excellent winter crop prospects but curtailing seasonal fieldwork.

A slow-moving disturbance triggered widespread showers and thunderstorms - some with large hail and heavy downpours - from eastern Belarus and northern Ukraine into western and southern Russia.

Hail was most prominent in central and southern portions of Russia’s Southern District early in the period, but impacts on regional crop production were minor, if any.

In fact, the rain (10-70 mm, locally more) maintained good to excellent prospects for reproductive to filling winter wheat in Russia and Ukraine, though late summer crop sowing was slowed or halted by the locally heavy downpours.

Eastern FSU

Favourably dry weather in the north contrasted with additional beneficial rainfall in southern portions of the region.

Across northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia, sunny skies and near-normal temperatures promoted a rapid pace of spring wheat planting.

However, for a second consecutive week eastern-most portions of the spring wheat belt tallied heavier showers (10-40 mm), slowing fieldwork but maintaining adequate to abundant soil moisture for wheat establishment.

Farther south, heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-95 mm, locally more) over eastern Uzbekistan and environs provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was in the reproductive to grainfill stages of development.

Second Black Sea Crop Tour of the season to get underway

Reports out of Ukraine and Russia seem to be saying the same thing; all is good and another barn busting crop is on the way.

I have no doubt there is but my contacts who are spread out all over Ukraine and Russia keep slipping comments in their emails along the lines of missed fertiliser applications, delayed fungicides, rain delaying planting, cool weather hurting newly emerged spring crops and I hope the wheat doesn’t fall over.

Standard stuff in farming circles I know but now it’s time I took a look for myself.

From Sunday I will head out to Ukraine to meet up with colleagues then hit the road on Monday to kick off the second crop tour of the 2016 season.

After a few days driving around Ukraine I will cross the border into Russia to do the same thing there.

The main target of this crop tour will be to assess the general condition of the main spring planted crops of corn, sunflower and soya but I will also take a view on wheat plus anything else of note.

As with previous tours I will tweet in real time what we are seeing on the member’s only Twitter account @BSCT_01 including comments, photographs and videos.

The last trip produced 173 tweets including 80 photographs and 40 video reports with two written reports.

Drop me a line via the "contact me here.." bit to the right of this blog if you would like to sign up to the only truly independent Black Sea Crop Tour and find out what crops are really like in Ukraine and Russia.

Gathering crop intelligence and crop tours

When trying to get a handle on crop condition, weather and likely impact on yields, remote reports and satellite data have a place but they don’t always give you the full story.

This week I have read several upbeat reports on conditions in Ukraine and Russia stating that warm, wet spring weather has paved the way for a large wheat harvest and that spring sowing is progressing well with hectares planted already up on last year.

At the same time I received a less than upbeat report from a farming buddy in Russia telling me it’s still cold and wet there, sowing is well behind schedule, they are unable to finish fertiliser on wheat and spraying is late.

Several farming pals across Ukraine and Russia are also independently telling me wheat fungicides are behind, hail has damaged some crops and the wet weather is causing wheat to grow very tall with large heads increasing the risk of falling over particularly as they missed PGR timings.

Clearly it’s not a catastrophe and there is a lot of good crop knocking about in the Black Sea region but it’s not all good news and we are still some time off the first harvest with many things that could erode yield and quality.

That black earth might be revered stuff but it doesn’t hold on to water for very long; a couple of weeks of hot dry weather with high transpiration rates and drought quickly becomes a possibility.

Those late or missed fertiliser applications will translate directly into reduced yield and late season fusarium which is always a problem will take full advantage of late fungicides.

To that end that is why our Black Sea Crop Tours have a place in gathering crop intelligence; remote reports, satellite data, expert opinion all have a place but I believe they should be complemented with an honest, muddy boots on the ground, objective and subjective assessment.

Later this month I will be kicking off the second Black Sea Crop Tour of the season specifically to look at the condition of recently planted corn, sunflower and soya but we will also be taking a look at the condition of cereals to see how good or bad things really are.

Drop me a line if you would like to sign up.

Ukraine Russia upbeat on crop condition

Indications and reports out of Ukraine and Russia is that crop condition is good, mild weather and rains have boosted the chances of producing if not a record crop then a close run thing.

Rusagrotrans, Russia's rail freighting holding company, have just increased their grain production forecast for Russia from 103mmt to 105mmt.

Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture go slightly further with their latest forecast pegged at 106mmt including 62.5mmt of wheat which would be the second highest crop on record.

Across the border in Ukraine they are putting an equally positive spin on harvest potential with the ministry reporting that 82% of the winter crop was in good and satisfactory (they actually go on to say 18% is in poor condition and there are 2% losses which adds up to more than 100% but you get the general idea).

True enough some of Ukraine’s wheat crop took a hit last autumn and winter with the number of hectares down around 13% on last year but what was left didn’t look too bad when we toured the region in April.

Not entirely clear what that shortfall will be made up with in Ukraine, probably corn, but spring plantings in both countries has taken advantage of good weather and are ahead on last year which further bodes well for good yields.

Not wanting to be the one that rains on this particular parade but I am receiving reports from several independent sources across Ukraine and Russia that rain has delayed fertiliser and fungicide applications on winter crops which in itself shouldn’t put too large a dent in yields but will still have an impact none the less.

A couple of farming contacts have quietly mentioned the crops are growing tall and they hope that a) they don’t start falling over and b) all that biomass translates into grain and not just straw.

I’m currently planning Crop Tours III and IV of the season which are due to kick off at the end of this month, primarily to look at post planting conditions of spring planted corn, sunflower and soya but we will undoubtedly be taking a view on the condition of wheat.

I’m not for a minute saying we aren’t going to see a large wheat crop particularly from Russia but it’s still a long way to harvest and lodged crops with increased disease pressure, perhaps with an added heatwave later in the season and a wet harvest might just conspire to keep records safe for another season.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Wet weather over central and southern portions of the region contrasted with favourably drier conditions in the north.

An area of high pressure brought sunny skies to much of north-western Russia, accelerating spring grain and summer crop planting following two months of above-normal precipitation.

In contrast, a stalled frontal boundary coupled with an influx of warm, humid air resulted in widespread showers and thunderstorms (15-85 mm) from Moldova, Ukraine, and southern Belarus into central and southern Russia.

The rain maintained good to excellent prospects for reproductive to filling winter wheat, though sowing of corn, sunflowers, and soybeans was slowed or halted by the locally heavy downpours.

Eastern FSU

Generally dry weather in the north contrasted with additional heavy rainfall in southern portions of the region.

Across northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia, rainfall was generally light (5 mm or less), promoting a rapid pace of spring wheat planting.

However, eastern and western most portions of the spring wheat belt tallied heavier showers (15-35 mm), slowing fieldwork but maintaining adequate to abundant soil moisture for crop establishment.

For the second consecutive week, freezes (-8 to -2°C) posed little - if any - threat to recently emerged spring wheat.

Farther south, heavy showers and thunderstorms (25-125 mm, locally more) over central and eastern Uzbekistan provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was in the reproductive to early grain-fill stages of development.

Latest USDA weather update for western and eastern FSU

Western FSU

Additional widespread showers sustained favourable soil moisture supplies for vegetative to reproductive winter wheat, though the wet weather continued to slow fieldwork.

An upper air disturbance drifted across the region, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms (5-30 mm) over Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia.

The rainfall maintained adequate to abundant soil moisture for vegetative (north) to reproductive (south) winter wheat.

However, the unsettled conditions slowed or temporarily halted summer crop and spring wheat planting, particularly in southern and eastern portions of the region.

Temperatures averaged near normal in most major growing areas, with no untimely freezes or early-season heat reported.

Eastern FSU

Sunny, cool weather in the north contrasted with locally heavy showers in southern portions of the region.

Across the primary spring wheat belt (northern Kazakhstan and neighbouring portions of central Russia), dry weather enabled a rapid sowing pace.

This week’s freezes (-6 to - 2°C) did not pose much - if any - threat to recently emerged spring wheat.

Farther south, moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms (10-40 mm, locally more) over central and eastern Uzbekistan provided supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat, which was likely progressing through the reproductive stages of development.

Virgin fails to deliver

A combination of work, laziness and domestic chores kept me of blog and twitter for a while but that pales into insignificance over my internet provider’s inability to provide me with internet.

It has been three weeks since I first contacted Virgin Media to report my broadband was on the blink, I won’t bore you with the details but the experience has been akin to repeatedly smashing my head against a brick wall while HAL, the computer from 2001 Space Odyssey, says “I’m sorry Mike, I can’t do that”.

I guess that’s what you get when you sign up to a company fronted by a failed Christmas tree farmer and drug advocate.

Turns out slow internet speeds, intermittent access, no mobile reception and excessive bills topped off with piss poor customer service is a democratic problem in the UK as everyone gets to experience it at some point. 

After living in the former Soviet Union for the last ten years, with its tip top, cheap, fast and reliable internet, I can tell the people of the UK, you are being taken for a ride, I'd complain if I was you, surely someone appointed an internet Czar, try him or her for starters.

Anyway, I now have a piece of string between two tin cans and a flock of messenger pigeons to hand so I can start catching up with the backlog of work; apologies if you’ve been waiting for a reply to an email, normal service is being resumed.

Congratulations to Leicester City FC for winning the English Premier League.

Black Sea Crop Tour update

The first Black Sea Crop Tour of 2016 season is now finished.

Over the course of the last ten days we travelled 3,100km through Russia and Ukraine; crossed 16 Oblasts; made 584 crop observations and 64 detailed crop assessments; posted 172 Tweets on the dedicated crop tour Twitter account (@BSCT_01) including 80 photographs and 39 video reports; interviewed four farmers; slept in nine different locations including a train and a boat; consumed an estimated 4.5 litres of borscht and were stopped only twice.

All in all a successful trip.

The data we collected has now been presented and is available in two reports, one for Russia and one for Ukraine, which include detail on our route, methodology, what we found and my opinion on the condition of the winter wheat crop and the potential as it moves into the spring.

Drop me a line for subscription details if you would like a copy of either report or for future tour information planned for the rest of this season.

After a brief period of recovery we set out again in May/June to look at the post-emergence condition of spring planted corn, sunflower and soya with particular focus on limitations to crop development from dryness or cold (or indeed even heat).

After that we will head out again to look at the pre-harvest yield estimations of all crops in July and August.

Feel free to drop me a line via the “Contact me here…” box to the right of this page if you have any questions.

Thanks for all the continued support.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Warmer, wetter weather expanded over the region following a brief cold snap at the end of March.

A warm, southerly flow prevailed for much of the week, with temperatures averaging 2 to 6°C above normal from Belarus and western Ukraine into central Russia.

The return of warmer weather allowed winter grains to resume adding vegetative growth, particularly from southern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern and North Caucasus Districts.

In addition, widespread light to moderate rain (2-35 mm) in these southern areas sustained good to excellent soil moisture for crop growth, though winter wheat areas in central and southern Ukraine continued to exhibit poor vegetation health (as depicted in satellite imagery) due to a severe autumn drought.

Meanwhile, rain and late-week snow (10-50 mm liquid equivalent) sustained abundant moisture reserves for spring growth from Belarus into Russia’s Volga District.

At week’s end, a cold front ushered cooler weather back into the region, though there were no concerns for a damaging hard freeze.

The Black Sea Crop Tour finally gets underway

The latest official winter crop condition for Ukraine published yesterday show that from the 6.9mha of crop that emerged in the autumn 5.1mha or 75% are in good and satisfactory condition with 1.7mha or 25% in poor condition.

Which doesn’t sound good and even more so if you recognise there is a tendency to embellish the positive when collecting data so things could actually be much worse.

With that in mind I have planned a crop tour route through Ukraine’s more harder hit regions in southern and eastern oblasts to take a view on the situation there myself. 

But before that I set off to Russia in the morning to assess the post winter crop condition there which has so far been reported as generally good with no significant issues.

There is still plenty of time to subscribe if you would like to follow the tour in real time as I post pictures and commentary on our dedicated Crop Tour Twitter account, just drop me a line and I’ll send you details by return.

Latest news for Black Sea Crop Tours 2016

After a hectic few weeks sorting out visas, flights, vehicles, drivers, security, routes, accommodation, I can finally announce the first Black Sea Crop Tour of the season is go.

I am currently in London with passport & visa and will be flying to Moscow on Saturday to kick off the Russian leg of the tour on Sunday.

The plan is to head east to look at the condition of winter wheat in the areas where I believe it has been at most risk.

We will leave the southern regions until the May tour as all indications are there are no particular issues there at this time.

After four days we will return west and cross into Ukraine before heading to the southern regions to take a look at crops there which have suffered from a dry autumn and difficult winter before heading north through the centre of the country.

You’ll appreciate why we are being a little vague with our travel plans but we intend to cover around 3,000km over eight days of what I believe to be the key winter crop areas requiring assessment.

I will be reporting the crop condition in real time to subscribers via our member’s only Twitter account (not yet live) and will follow up the tour with a full report of findings, analysis and comment.

There is still time to sign up (details on the Crop Tour page, above) and to those of you who have yet to hear back from me, I will be in contact today/tomorrow.

After this tour we will have a short break before running the second tour of the season to look at the condition of the emerging spring crops with particular interest in corn, sunflower and soya.

Any questions email me at the usual address or via the contact form on this page and I will do my best to get back to you as soon as I can.

Wish us luck.

Black Sea Crop Tour 2016; update

A weeks a long time in politics and, so it seems, in planning a Crop Tour.

Thanks to all those who have registered an interest in subscribing and supporting this years Crop Tours.

I am working my way through getting back to you all as quickly as I can, expect an email over the weekend if you haven't already heard anything from me.

I tend to forget the time it takes to plan and execute a Crop Tour, the logistics, planning, organisation, visa, vehicles, drivers, security, tools etc but we are now getting everything in line for a kick off later this month.

Early reports are conditions are not too bad across most of the Black Sea region, an early spring with an early fertiliser will give the more backward crops a boost although it should be noted that it can still turn bitterly cold in March.

Spring cereal planting is underway with Ukraine reporting 82,800 hectares or 3% of the planned area completed while Russia has 219,300 hectares or 0.4% in the ground.

None of which will do anything to dissuade the bear market although reports that a third of the Ukraine crop is in poor condition will no doubt sit a little uncomfortably in some peoples minds.

It would only take the hint of a dry spring before the crop which is already down 10% on last year and with 33% in poor condition could start to look like a problem.

Reports that soil moisture is plentiful shouldn't be taken too literally either; chernozem and the like doesn't hold on to water all that well, wet soil can turn to dry soil and very dry soil very quickly.

Still plenty of time to subscribe, follow and support us on our second Black Sea Crop Touring season, just drop me a line.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Unsettled, unseasonably warm weather prevailed over the region, accelerating southern wheat development and keeping most crop areas uncharacteristically devoid of snow cover.

Precipitation for the week totaled 10 to 30 mm from Belarus and northern Ukraine into central Russia, boosting moisture reserves for dormant winter crops.

Precipitation was lighter in southern portions of Ukraine and Russia, where 2 to 13 mm was reported; however, soil moisture supplies remained abundant for winter wheat following a wet winter.

Temperatures averaged up to 10°C above normal, with daytime highs above freezing (3-8°C) in the north and the lower 20s along the Black Sea Coast.

Consequently, snow was confined to the Volga and northern Central Districts in Russia, in sharp contrast to the end-of February climatology of a region-wide snowpack.

Furthermore, winter crops in Krasnodar Krai (located in southern-most portions of the Southern District) continued to develop well ahead of normal.

While the recent spring like warmth has not been detrimental to winter wheat, the early development and lack of protective snow cover have left crops more vulnerable than usual to potential incursions of late-winter or early-spring bitter cold.

Friday roundup of Black Sea agri news

Russia will reduce the area of wheat planted this coming season according to the President of Russian Grain Union, Arkadiy Zlochevskiy.

He cites the introduction of regulatory measures as the reason why farmers will be planting less spring wheat this year suggesting a drop of 1.6% on last year.

He also said the harvested areas of winter crops will be down on last year; nearly 10% of crops are estimated as not in good condition resulting in a potential harvest of 14.8mha against 15.2mha in 2015.

Some Russian farmers I’m talking to are saying they might be looking at winter losses of up to 15% but they won’t know for certain for a couple more weeks.

  

Ukraine’s cropping season is underway with the Ministry reporting that 2,600ha of early spring grains have already been planted and 1.6mha or 24% of winter grain crops have been fertilised, which to be honest seems high.

It was announced this week that Cargill and Ukraine's M.V. Cargo would build and operate a new grain terminal at Ukraine's Black Sea port of Yuzhny in a $100m joint venture.  The facility is planned to have an annual loading capacity of 5mmt.

This was in the same week Cargill announced they stop selling crop inputs to farmers in the Black Sea region including Russia, Ukraine and Romania as they cut back operations citing to low commodity prices and an inability to realise many of the expected synergies between origination and crop inputs.

Weather forecasts are suggesting mild weather will continue in to March so risk of further winter losses is diminishing but is not entirely over yet snow & ice has melted across much of the Russian grain belt leaving crops exposed if it does turn cold again.

Warm weather has meant that snow has all but gone in Ukraine and much of the Russian grain belt with temperatures currently 10°C above normal.

Winter crops have begun to green-up in south Russia more than five weeks ahead of average while parts of Ukraine's river Dnieper has now opened to navigation three weeks earlier than usual.

The USDA reported that although recent spring-like warmth has not been detrimental to winter wheat, the early development and lack of protective snow cover has left crops more vulnerable than usual to potential incursions of late-winter or early spring bitter cold.

We are now taking subscriptions for our Black Sea Crop Tours.

For less than the price of a dull conference you can gain direct access to the only boots on the ground, fully independent crop assessment and follow all the major commodity crops for the entire growing season from the safety and comfort of your own office.

Ukraine's planting season gets underway

Earlier today Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture reported that spring planting is officially

underway with 1.7kha in Odessa and 900ha in Mykolaiv in the ground. 

They don't specify what crop but it’s likely spring wheat as spring barley is less frost tolerant and would be best planted later.

The local boys have instigated some recreational top dressing applying fertiliser to 1.6mha of winter grain crops (24% of forecast, 1.6mha in 2015) and 154kha of winter oilseed rape (26% of forecast, 223kha in 2015).

Recreational top dressing is when the workshop is tidied up, everything has been serviced, painted, cleaned, put away or fixed, the shooting season is over so lets go fert spreading, usually way too early.

Winter grain crops for 2016 harvest stand at 7.1mha planted (89% of 2015) including 6.0mha of wheat and 1.0mha barley.

However of that 7.1mha only 6.5mha (92%) has established with 4.3mha (67%) in good condition, 2.2mha (33%) poor and an additional 80kha dead.  Confused?

At the beginning of April last year the ministry put 88% of the crop in good condition while we scored 62% good.

It will be interesting to see how we compare this year, my concern is that even at 67% good they might be overestimating.

Before you say it I know last year was a record harvest but Ukraine gets high yields primarily because it rains at the right time; poor crops still yield in a good season.

But if it is a dry season those poor crops will yield significantly lower, so the proportion of poor crops is the important indicator here.

Only one way to find out, go and have a look for ourselves.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Unsettled, unseasonably warm weather persisted over the region, melting the vestiges of snow cover and accelerating southern wheat out of dormancy.

Precipitation for the week totaled 5 to 30 mm, much of which was rain, over most major growing areas.

As a result, soil moisture reserves remained adequate to abundant for spring growth.

Temperatures for the week averaged 5 to 10°C above normal from northern Ukraine into central Russia, melting the remnants of snow cover and reducing winter crop cold hardiness.

Farther south, temperatures averaged more than 10°C above normal for much of the week from southeastern Ukraine into southern Russia, with daytime highs reaching into the lower and middle 20s (more typical of readings observed in mid- to late-April).

The second consecutive week of abnormal warmth caused winter crops to begin greening-up in the Krasnodar Krai (located in southern-most portions of the Southern District) more than 5 weeks ahead of average.

However, colder air returned to southern Russia toward week’s end, slowing the unseasonably early crop development.

While the recent spring-like warmth has not been detrimental to winter wheat, the early development and lack of protective snow cover has left crops more vulnerable than usual to potential incursions of late-winter or early spring bitter cold.

(We are still seeing snow in Central Russia, albeit slowly melting in warm wet conditions, but it does illustrates how remote reports like this are not always accurate, for that you really need boots on the ground, see our Crop Tour page)

Ukraine agriculture less corrupt

Ukraine agriculture has become less corrupt over the last year according to one Vadim Ivchenko, a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Agrarian Policy and Land Relations.

He cites the joint efforts of the Parliamentary Committee and the Agriculture Ministry in promoting an active policy of deregulation that has removed many opportunities for bribes and coercion.

The more cynical might say it’s just window dressing and I suspect even if the intentions to deal with corruption are good, the reality is it probably is a little bit of smoke and mirrors.

But it doesn’t matter; if Ukraine is officially dealing with corruption inasmuch as all the right boxes are ticked then this will allow due diligence to green light corporate governance opening up the possibility of serious levels of  inward investment.

Investments and the business practices that follow mean that everyday corruption is harder to pass off and instead becomes modernised and turns up as things like cash for questions or peerages for donors.

This is the route that Ukraine is trying to follow and appears to be succeeding, to my mind it is only a matter of time until we start to see serious inward investment into the country and some significant social changes taking hold.

Ukraine's Zhytomyr winter crops in good condition

Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture, Oleksiy Pavlenko, has been on a working visit to Zhytomyr where he discussed the state of the winter crops.

Given this was an official ministerial visit it’s perhaps unsurprising that 100% of planted crop was reported as having emerged with 94% in good or satisfactory condition and only 6% in poor condition.

The minister responded by saying this was a good performance given the prolonged drought and late planting season which indeed it is, if it as actually the case.

It was also reported that 91% of the seeds for spring had been secured along with 67% of fertiliser (which is now being applied, too early in my opinion) and 48% of the plant protection products.

The minister went on to say that these figures suggested the satisfactory state and readiness of farms for spring field work.

Worth mentioning that Zhytomyr translates as rye-world which gives you some idea of what crops grow best there.  

Actually to be fair, south of the oblast is very good farm land but there is a lot of light, free draining land with low rainfall that would suit dry land min-till farming plus it's proximity to Kiev means carrots might do well there.

There you go, a free business plan, min-till wheat, oilseed rape, carrot, parsnip rotation, sell the grains off the combine, wash, grade and pre-pack the roots retail in Kiev, boom.

Monday Black Sea agri-business news

As the UK takes a step closer to leaving the EU with the Prime Minister announcing June 23 as the date for a referendum, Ukraine continues to move closer to integration exporting $4.2bn worth of produce to the EU in 2015 including $1.6bn of cereals and $625m of oilseeds.

UK farmers are in the dark when it comes to what a post EU situation might look like as the UK Ministry of Agriculture are so far refusing to lay out what their plans might be saying that they didn’t instigate the referendum therefore it’s not up to them to explain an exit strategy.

They are now unlikely to change that position given that Cameron has come out in favour of staying in but most UK farmers I have spoken to admit that if the UK exited the EU it’s unlikely they would receive the same level of financial support.

It’s going to be a long run up to the referendum.

SovEcon report that Russian grain exports are expected to remain high in March after record supplies in January and February primarily due to weakening of rouble making Russian wheat competitive.

Cargill announced they will stop selling crop inputs to farmers in the Black Sea region including Russia, Ukraine and Romania as they cut back operations citing to low commodity prices and an inability to realise many of the expected synergies between origination and crop inputs.

They go on to say they will completely exit the market by the end of May, I presume the gap will be picked up by other suppliers but worth keeping an eye on in case farmers find access to chems and fert restricted as a result.

Last week Ukraine’s Ministry of AG reported that 67% (4.2mha) of winter crop are in good condition with 33% (2.1mha) in poor condition.

I’m never entirely sure how they come up with these numbers considering that the satellite showed a third of the country still under snow last week but my feeling is they are probably indicative and that the crop is not looking too good this year.

We will kick off our own Crop Tour in March to check for ourselves.

This week’s Ukraine weather looks to be improving, warmer temperatures has melted ice with virtually no snow cover across the country.

Meanwhile cooler conditions across central Russia means much of the ice and snow is still present and there is still a risk of crop damage.  

Further south daytime temperatures are reaching mid-teens (Celsius) meaning dormancy will be broken and crops will be needing fertiliser fairly soon.

Black Sea Crop Tours 2016

Last year we successfully piloted a series of independent crop tours across Ukraine and Russia.

This year we are extending the service to cover key crop stages across the whole of the Ukraine and Russian seasons.

We kick off the year in March with a look at how autumn planted crops fared the winter and what the potential might be for harvest.

We follow this up in May when we will assess planting conditions for corn, sunflower and soya and how they look at the start of their season.

From July we will start to look at the harvest potential of the early crops of wheat and oilseed rape and later, in August corn, sunflower and soya.

We then turn our attentions to the new season crop when we will cover the post-emergence condition of the autumn planted crops in October and how they look before they enter the winter.

In addition to the scheduled tours we will also investigate any significant crop related news reports as they occur through the season such as localised pest infestations or drought.

We will also visit farms to gauge opinion of how their season is progressing.

All tours will be reported in real time through a members Twitter account with photographs, video, comments and observations posted as they happen.

We will use a rapid appraisal technique to condition score as much crop as possible and more a detailed assessments of sample fields looking at growth stages, plant counts, soil condition, pest and diseases and so on.

This entire process will enable us to form a picture of the target crops at key stages through the production cycle and to comment on how this will influence yield outcome.

Full reports will be emailed on completion of each tour.

The individual annual subscription for this service is £650.

By investing in our service you will allow us to continue to develop what we believe is a valuable asset for traders, farmers and other interested groups.

(Company rates and student discounts available, individual reports available, email for details)

Subscription benefits include:

• Ten scheduled Crop Tour reports
• Additional reports verifying crop related news reports
• Access to a members only Twitter account
• Access to ask direct questions, seek clarification or share opinion
• Access to all posted pictures, video and commentary
• Regular bulletins covering points of interest throughout the season

Please register your interest or send questions to blackseacroptour@gmail.com

Black Sea agri-business news and comment

From February 15, Russia is introducing temporary restrictions on corn and soybeans from the United States after finding contamination including dry rot in corn and weed seeds in soybeans.

Russia’s food and safety watchdog said they found 64 cases of bacterial contamination in US soybeans including a bacteria which does not exist in Russia.

It’s been a while since I’ve done any meaningful plant pathology but isn’t it conceivable that if you look at any grain consignment from another region you will find bacteria which is not present in your country?

Isn’t that what makes cheese regional?

The Minister of Agriculture says that Russia plans to replace American soybeans with soybeans from Latin American countries.

A cargo train recently completed China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway covering 7,908km over nine days.  The route requires two weeks to cover, which is estimated to be around twice as fast as the sea route.

Kazakhstan hopes to use the new railway to up grain exports to Iran and presumably back the other way to China once China starts buying wheat again.

In Ukraine the Minister of Agriculture reported that 2015 investments in agriculture totalled $1 billion and is planned to reach $2 billion in 2016.

Ukraine’s Deputy Minister for European integration said this week that agricultural and high technologies (IT) have the greatest prospects for development saying that many farms in Ukraine are already using technology to optimise costs by reducing fertiliser and fuel.

An oversimplification perhaps but you get the general idea and to be fair the large scale nature of Ukraine agriculture does lend itself to remote sensing, variable application, yield mapping and the like.

Plus I have to say Ukraine Wi-Fi and internet access is brilliant, superfast, free and you don’t need to write your life story to access a cloud that doesn’t work.

Meanwhile here at Crop Tour Towers we are gearing up for our 2016 Crop Tours and it’s already looking to be an interesting season.

South and east Ukraine had a difficult start with autumn dryness delaying germination and a pretty rough winter since with snow melting and leaving crops exposed.  Large parts of Russia are also snow free and unseasonably warm weather is currently softening crops making them vulnerable to any drop in temperature.  Plus where we do have snow we are finding ice encased crops which will start to suffer within the next week.

This year we are planning to run up to ten separate crop tours at key times across Russia and Ukraine kicking off with a post-winter assessment in late March shortly followed up with an assessment of the spring crops post planting.

We will be offering an annual subscription service which gets you access to all the reports through the entire season plus intermittent updates of interest as and when they occur and we will also continue to offer access to individual reports.

As always your support will be greatly appreciated, watch this space for details.

Finally, this weeks “pregnant panda” story goes to Ukraine; while researching the internet using the terms “Ukraine” and “milk” I stumbled across this.

A fed-up woman who had endured a 14-hour business meeting said 'I can't take no more, I want to go home, declare a break!' before spraying her colleagues with breast milk when they ignored her request.

Have a good weekend.

Black Sea weather forecasts elevate risk of winterkill

Next week’s central Russia weather forecast is showing day time highs of +6C and night time lows of -6C while further south Stavropol is showing +18C by Thursday.

Long term average lows in central Russia can still drop to well below -10C in February and below -5C in Southern Russia.

With that in mind I thought it might be useful to look at the physiology of winter kill in wheat.

Winter mortality can be caused by a number of factors either in isolation or combination and is essentially the air or soil temperature falling below a critical level for a particular cultivar.

In the autumn, crops can be at risk if they are late emerging or the temperature drops suddenly before the plants have had sufficient time to harden off.  This may be an issue in south and east Ukraine this year as dry conditions delayed emergence there.

Plants can succumb to cold induced desiccation when they are exposed to long periods of cold without adequate snow cover.  I don’t believe we have seen any regions this winter that have had exposed plants for long enough but then again it depends on the definition of long enough.  

We have certainly seen plants exposed to cold temperatures in January ahead of snow falling and while it might not have resulted in plant mortality it may have caused leaf death reducing green leaf and yield potential and parts of Ukraine are currently snow free.

Prolonged periods of very low temperatures below -15C will weaken and ultimately kill off plants but we have not experienced conditions like that this winter or for some time now.

Ice encasement can result in plant mortality fairly quickly even if air temperatures don’t get all that low.  Ice freezes the leaves causing intracellular ice to form which ruptures the cell causing mortality.  Furthermore plants can be deprived of oxygen and suffocated.  We are currently seeing conditions like this across parts of central Russia as reported in yesterday’s post.

Then there is mortality caused by alternate freeze thaw action which can cause increased injury from ice crystal growth with each freeze cycle.  This is what we might be looking at in central Russia as we go in to next weeks plus minus scenario.  Further south there is a possibility of freeze thaw damage if temperatures drop to below freezing from the forecast double digits but more likely it will be plants softening off in the warm weather or a combination of both that could cause problems.

To keep this all in context I don’t see an imminent or actual catastrophe but neither do I see a completely problem free situation. 

What the weather does now as we enter that final period of winter will be critical as there are a couple of scenarios that could play out and result in elevated levels of winter kill this year.

Russian Ukraine wheat crop at risk

Recent mild temperatures and rain has melted snow cover across central and southern Russia and eastern Ukraine.

As temperatures returned to more seasonal averages this week the melt water, which had pooled and failed to drain through the frozen soil, turned to ice.

Several issues going on here that are worth noting.

Rain on snow is not a good thing, it speeds up thawing but it also collapses the structure reducing air spaces between ice crystals which is what gives snow its insulating property.  A bit like very old loft insulation that has lost its integrity and is now half the thicknesses it was when it went in twenty years ago.  

There is still plenty of snow on the ground but it is thin and less protective should temperatures drop further although more snow is forecast later this week.

Then there is ice which has the real capacity to do some damage.

Melt water and rain collected into low lying depressions and was unable to drain through frozen soil before temperatures dropped and it turned into ice.  

Where snow has melted completely the ice is obvious but we also are finding ice when we dig through the snow. 

Ice that has formed beneath the snow is, perversely, insulated from any rise in temperature and in all probability will be around now until the snow thaws sometime in March.

Ice has a high thermal conductivity and will amplify the effect of low temperature so it doesn’t have to get really cold to start doing some damage.  It also has low gas permeability and, in extreme cases, will smother or suffocate plants by depriving them of oxygen (Poltarev et al., 1992).

Or to put it another way, plants in which are now encased in ice will start to die very soon.

It’s difficult to put the level of risk in to context given that much of the problem is hidden under snow and it is difficult to get out into fields at this time of the year but if pushed we are seeing issues on 10-20% of the fields we visited and across Moscow, Lipetsk, Oryol, Voronezh, Kursk and Belgorod.

 

At this time we don’t have verifiable information for Ukraine but based on what see near the Russian Ukraine border and anecdotal evidence suggest there is a similar issue in eastern Ukraine.

We won’t be able to fully assess the extent of any damage and yield implications until will carry out our independent Post-Winter Crop Tour of Russia and Ukraine scheduled for late March, subscription details to follow soon.

(Check my Twitter feed for more pictures)

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Unseasonable warmth rapidly depleted much of the region’s snow cover and reduced winter crop cold hardiness.

Temperatures for the week averaged 5 to 11°C above normal, causing snow to rapidly melt from southern and eastern Ukraine into Russia’s North Caucasus District.

Though winter wheat was now exposed to potential incursions of bitter cold, nighttime low temperatures (-5 to -1°C) were well above the threshold for freeze damage.

While wheat remained dormant in most growing areas, daytime highs approaching 20°C in southern-most portions of Russia reduced crop cold hardiness and may have encouraged early greening.

Despite the widespread warmth, winter grains were still covered by a moderate to deep snowpack (10-25cm) from central Ukraine into Russia’s Volga District.

In addition, light to moderate rain and late-week wet snow (5-30 mm, liquid equivalent) maintained abundant soil moisture reserves for spring growth.

Ukraine looks to irrigation to increase yields

Every so often Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture announces plans to rebuild their irrigation infrastructure in order to increase yields.

Then potential investors look at the cost benefit implications and the idea is quietly kicked into the long grass until the next time.

This week the ministry reported that in 2015 Ukraine irrigated 472kha out of a possible 1.7mha of land that could be irrigated (I assume they mean land with immediate access to water) citing the need to upgrade, modernise and invest in irrigation infrastructure.

To address this issue the ministry has launched a strategy (and presumably a committee or two) on the reconstruction and development of irrigation in Ukraine.

Not entirely sure what that all means but given the state of the country’s finances and the huge cost associated with repairing and replacing the canals, pumping stations and other paraphernalia then I guess the main goal will be to secure external funding.

The amount of investment required just to maintain the irrigation infrastructure must run in to many millions of dollars but even if they do convince a development bank or government aid department, is this the right way to go?

The ministry's argument for irrigation is an uplift in yield which is true enough but yield doesn’t equate to profit and the limitations of irrigation and damage that can be done often outweigh the benefit.

Politicians, development consultants and the like see irrigation as a simple solution to increasing yields, one that is easy to contextualise and understand; irrigated grain yield 4.9mt/ha, rainfed 2.5mt/ha (their figures).

But it was recently described to me by someone who has extensive experience of implementing large scale Black Sea region irrigation projects that “you have no idea the size of headache you unleash once you embark on such a task, you need very, very deep pockets”.  I paraphrase but you get the idea.

My advice would be to forget irrigation for now, certainly public sector irrigation projects, instead use development bank funding to undertake proper market based research aimed at improving yields through better crop husbandry.

Unfortunately I don't think politicians find soil management, nozzle selection and counting bugs as sexy as a big pumping station.

Black Sea weather elevates crop damage risk

The weather in Ukraine and Russia has changed and is quietly threatening overwintered crops.

Mild temperatures and rain has reduced, and in some regions, completely depleted snow cover leaving crops exposed and vulnerable to any drop in temperature.

The picture was taken on the Russian Ukraine border earlier today.

Thing is I’m not reading anything about this in the press so I’m not sure the market will react or if it does it will be “oh yeah, here we go again, storm in a tea cup”.

But as an agronomist what I am seeing makes me concerned for this seasons yields and output bearing in mind that the south and east Ukraine crop was not in the best of condition anyway and much of the FSU has already been exposed to cold with no snow once already this winter.

It is only February and we still have a lot of winter to come until we reach the safety of spring.

We will be conducting another Crop Tour in Late March across Ukraine and Russia (and Kazakhstan if funds allow) to assess the post winter crop condition, only then will we really be able to fully assess the impact of this winter but my feeling thus far is it will be higher than average.

Crop Tour subscription details to follow soon.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Snow melted over southern growing areas, while areas farther north remained well insulated from lingering bitter cold.

Widespread light to moderate rain (5-25 mm) melted the shallow snow cover across southern portions of Ukraine and Russia, though exposed winter wheat was not subjected to bitter cold.

Farther north, nighttime lows plunged below -20°C from central and northern Ukraine eastward into Russia, but a moderate to deep snowpack (10-30 cm) kept crops adequately protected from freeze damage.

Despite temperatures averaging up to 5°C below normal in Russia, notably warmer weather (up to 7°C above normal) over Belarus and western Ukraine was advancing eastward at week’s end.

Latest USDA weather update for western FSU

Wet weather continued, with rain in southern crop areas contrasting with additional snow in central and northern portions of the region.

Precipitation (liquid equivalent) during the period totaled 15 to 50 mm, sustaining adequate to abundant moisture reserves for spring growth.

There were no concerns of winterkill due to a moderation in temperatures, with most winter wheat areas reporting nighttime lows above -20°C.

In areas where bitter cold was reported (Central and Volga Districts) a moderate to deep snowpack (10-60 cm) remained in place.

However, snow cover has melted from southern Ukraine into the North Caucasus District in southern Russia, leaving southern crop areas exposed to potential incursions of bitter cold.

Melted snow in parts of Ukraine leave crops exposed

Rain and warmer temperatures in southern Ukraine melted snow that fell last week leaving already struggling crops vulnerable and exposed to low temperatures.

Forecast are indicating low temperatures towards the end of next week with only light snow on offer which will not provide much in the way of protection.

Current winter wheat conditions in eastern Ukraine is being described as not good and daily temperature fluctuations are giving wheat yield and quality a hard time.

Further south and farmers are putting about 70% of wheat is in good condition with replanting’s possibly at 20% and winter wheat production down 20-40% on last year.

Farmers are talking of replanting with sunflower and corn rather than spring cereals but cash flow issues will dictate what can actually be planted.

I haven’t yet had it confirmed but I believe it is a similar situation in parts of southern Russia with warmer weather and rain melting snow although crops there are in a better condition and will be able to withstand all colder weather better.